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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】股市漲勢加速，無視關稅與Fed變數
儘管公債殖利率持穩且就業數據透露潛在警訊，在運輸類股強勁獲利與科技股持續動能的助燃下，市場再創新高。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月10日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 股市上漲至新高紀錄，市場情緒擺脫了不斷升級的貿易緊張局勢，並專注於未來貨幣寬鬆的前景。
- 在強勁的運輸業財報和大型科技股持續強勢的推動下，標普500指數和那斯達克指數達到歷史高點，小型股亦表現優於大盤。
- 在30年期公債標售需求強勁後，公債市場早盤的拋售潮出現逆轉，使10年期公債殖利率當日大致持平。
- 每週初請領失業金人數仍然偏低，但持續申領失業救濟金人數持續上升至數年高點，指向勞動市場正在降溫。
- 白宮威脅將對巴西課徵新的50%關稅，加入了預計8月1日生效的貿易行動清單中，然投資者目前對此不予理會。
今日市場最明確的論述，是顯著的分歧現象：股市正積極地將未來聯準會寬鬆政策的最佳情境計入價格，同時卻忽視全球貿易風險升級帶來的衝擊。標普500指數和那斯達克指數推升至歷史新高，與此同時，芝加哥選擇權交易所波動率指數(VIX)則維持在數月來的低點附近，此種組合顯示市場根深蒂固的自滿情緒。此波漲勢發生的背景，是白宮正將重大的關稅威脅制度化，包括對巴西商品和銅課徵50%的關稅，且8月1日的最後期限日益逼近。市場走勢無視這些具體的風險，這表明投資人堅信關稅要麼會被協商掉，要麼其影響將被美國聯準會的鴿派轉向所抵銷。
在表面漲勢之下，經濟訊號正變得日益複雜。儘管初請領失業金人數持續處於低位，但持續申領失業救濟金人數持續上升至2021年底以來的最高點，證實了再就業環境更具挑戰性。此種分歧是預示勞動市場正在趨緩的典型前瞻性指標，而此點被總體數據所掩蓋。此數據無疑加劇了美國聯準會政策評估上的兩難。儘管昨日公布的六月份會議紀錄顯示委員會樂於等待更多明朗的訊息，但今日聯準會理事戴莉(Daly)的鴿派言論——提出兩次降息的可能性——為股市的漲勢火上加油。市場緊抓此一鴿派訊號，將委員會整體的謹慎基調拋諸腦後，並果斷押注於九月份的降息。
各類資產的反應反映了當前市場環境的細膩轉變。債券市場在最初的拋售後，30年期公債標售出現強勁需求，將殖利率從當日高點拉回。這顯示市場對存續期間存在穩固的潛在需求，但尚未形成推動債券市場大幅上漲的信念，使10年期公債殖利率基本持平。在股市方面，漲勢的基礎正在擴大，達美航空(Delta)的強勁財報提振了整個運輸類股，小型股羅素2000指數亦再次表現優於大盤。然而，市場仍然深受大型股動能的影響，輝達(Nvidia)市值已突破4兆美元。原油價格因需求預測轉弱而下滑，與股市中高歌猛進的樂觀情緒形成鮮明對比，顯示股市以外，市場對全球經濟成長的擔憂仍未消散。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
今日的焦點是貨幣和大宗商品，兩大資產類別各自呈現出鮮明的主導論述。過去一週，新台幣對其主要貿易夥伴貨幣展現出廣泛的強勢。在大宗商品領域，則出現了明顯的兩極分化：投資者對貴金屬和數位資產的興趣依然濃厚，而與實體經濟相關的大宗商品，如能源和農產品的趨勢則已轉弱。
圖表一：貨幣(以新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對：USDTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 歐元(貨幣對：EURTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 日圓(貨幣對：JPYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對：CNYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 加幣(貨幣對：CADTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
過去一週，新台幣展現出一致的強勢，所有受評估的主要貨幣對其均維持負面趨勢。美元、歐元、日圓、人民幣和加幣兌新台幣均維持負面趨勢。此種普遍一致的讀數，顯示新台幣在外匯市場中出現明確且無可挑戰的走強趨勢。
圖表二：大宗商品(以美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBE)：當前：▼，上週：--
- 農業類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBA)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
- 工業金屬(代表ETF：DBB)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 貴金屬(代表ETF：DBP)：當前：▲，上週：▲▲
- 數位資產(代表ETF：IBIT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
大宗商品市場呈現明顯的分歧。與全球經濟活動相關的類股正顯現疲弱；能源類大宗商品的趨勢已從中性惡化至負面，而農業類大宗商品則堅守在非常負面的趨勢中。相較之下，常被視為通膨避險或價值儲存的資產則表現穩健。數位資產維持其非常正向的趨勢，工業金屬則維持其正向評級。儘管貴金屬仍處於正向趨勢，但其動能已從一週前的非常正向減速，顯示近期的漲勢略有趨緩。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Equity Rally Accelerates, Disconnecting from Rising Tariff and Fed Uncertainty
Strong earnings from transports and continued tech momentum fuel new records, even as bond yields hold firm and jobless data signals underlying caution.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 10, 2025
Executive Summary
- Stocks advanced to new records, with market sentiment brushing aside escalating trade tensions and focusing on the prospect of future monetary easing.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached all-time highs, propelled by strong transport earnings and continued strength in mega-cap tech, while small caps outperformed.
- An early sell-off in Treasuries was reversed following strong demand at a 30-year bond auction, leaving the 10-year yield largely unchanged on the day.
- Weekly initial jobless claims remained low, but a persistent rise in continuing claims to a multi-year high points to a cooling labor market.
- The White House threatened new 50% tariffs on Brazil, adding to a growing list of trade actions set for August 1 that investors are currently discounting.
The defining market narrative today is one of divergence: equity markets are aggressively pricing in a best-case scenario of future Fed easing while simultaneously ignoring a clear escalation in global trade risk. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to new all-time highs, and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains near multi-month lows, a combination that signals deep-seated complacency. This rally is occurring even as the White House formalizes significant tariff threats, including a 50% levy on Brazilian goods and copper, with an August 1 deadline looming. The market's decision to look through these concrete risks indicates a powerful conviction that either the tariffs will be negotiated away or their impact will be nullified by a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.
Beneath the surface of the rally, economic signals are becoming more complex. While initial jobless claims continue to trend at low levels, the steady rise in continuing claims to its highest point since late 2021 confirms a more challenging environment for re-employment. This divergence is a classic forward-looking indicator of a softening labor market that the headline figures obscure. This data feeds directly into the Federal Reserve's policy dilemma. While the June meeting minutes released yesterday showed a committee content to wait for more clarity, today's dovish commentary from Fed Governor Daly, who floated the possibility of two rate cuts, provided fuel for the equity rally. The market has seized on this dovish signal, brushing aside the more cautious tone from the committee as a whole and making a decisive bet on a September rate cut.
The reaction across asset classes reflects this nuanced environment. The bond market, after an initial sell-off, saw strong demand for the 30-year Treasury auction, which pulled yields back from their daily highs. This reveals solid underlying demand for duration but not the conviction to drive a major bond rally, leaving the 10-year yield essentially flat. In equities, the rally's base is broadening, with strong earnings from Delta lifting the entire transport sector and the small-cap Russell 2000 once again outperforming. However, the market remains heavily influenced by mega-cap momentum, with Nvidia topping a $4 trillion market cap. The slide in crude oil prices, a response to weaker demand forecasts, stands as a notable counterpoint to the unbridled optimism seen in equities, signaling that concerns about global growth persist outside the stock market.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities Trends
Today's focus is on currencies and commodities, where we observe two dominant themes. The Taiwan Dollar has demonstrated broad-based strength against its major peers over the past week. In the commodities space, a clear bifurcation has emerged: investor interest remains strong in precious metals and digital assets, while trends for commodities tied to the real economy, such as energy and agriculture, have weakened.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The Taiwan Dollar showed uniform strength over the past week, as all major currencies reviewed maintained their negative trends against it. The U.S. Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all remained in a negative trend relative to the TWD. This consistent reading across the board signals a clear and unchallenged strengthening of the Taiwan Dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A distinct divergence is evident in the commodities market. Sectors tied to global economic activity are showing weakness; the trend for Energy Commodities has deteriorated from Neutral to Negative, while Agricultural Commodities remain firmly in a Strongly Negative trend. In contrast, assets often viewed as inflation hedges or stores of value are holding up. Digital Assets maintained their Strongly Positive trend and Industrial Metals held their Positive rating. While Precious Metals are still in a Positive trend, their momentum has decelerated from Strongly Positive a week ago, indicating a slight moderation of the recent rally.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。