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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】市場擺脫關稅陰影，焦點鎖定通膨與財報
儘管週末宣布對歐盟和墨西哥徵收30%關稅，投資者注意力已明確轉向國內經濟訊號
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月14日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在新的關稅公告引發初步賣壓後，美國股市反彈收高，顯示市場焦點已轉向國內經濟指標。
- 在投資者預期第二季財報季（預計成長將顯著放緩）即將展開之際，通訊和金融類股領漲。
- 在債券市場為明日的CPI報告做準備之際，10年期美國公債殖利率微幅上揚至4.43%，儘管長期通膨預期依然穩定。
- 所有目光都集中在即將公布的六月份CPI數據，預測顯示總體和核心通膨均將加速。
- 川普政府宣布對歐盟和墨西哥徵收30%的關稅，將於8月1日生效，使貿易緊張局勢升級。
面對貿易言論持續升溫，市場所展現的韌性預示著投資者優先順序正在出現關鍵轉變。美國股市週一扭轉早盤跌勢收於正值，顯示市場的主要焦點已從地緣政治頭條新聞，轉向對美國本土經濟健康狀況更為直接的考驗：通膨數據和企業財報。儘管川普總統週末宣布對歐盟和墨西哥徵收30%的關稅最初引發市場不安，但隨後的反彈表明，投資者目前更關心本週即將公布的基本面數據。
本週是第二季財報季的起點，這是在近期政策轉變下對企業體質的關鍵考驗。標普500指數的企業獲利成長預測已從第一季的強勁擴張大幅下修，目前普遍預估在3.7%至4.8%的區間。能源和非必需消費品等類股預計將出現大幅度衰退，而科技和通訊類股則有望領先。企業的財測將受到嚴格審視，以尋找有關利潤率以及關稅環境實際影響的評論。
債券市場亦處於觀望格局，在週二公布六月份消費者物價指數(CPI)前，10年期美國公債殖利率微幅上揚至4.43%。經濟學家預測，總體CPI年增率將上升至2.6%，而剔除食品和能源的核心數據則將增至3.0%。儘管這些數字顯示短期物價可能上揚——很可能歸因於關稅——但長期通膨預期仍然受控。這表明，儘管聯準會將密切追蹤數據走勢，但短期內尚不足以改變其政策立場，惟可能使降息時點稍作延後。
週一資產焦點：美國指數與個股趨勢
今日的市場焦點集中於美國股市，主要指數目前正維持強勁的上升趨勢。然而，此種指數層面的穩定性掩蓋了市場上市值最具影響力的幾家公司之間顯著的分歧。儘管一些大型股持續展現強勁動能，但其他公司的動能則已停滯，而一個值得注意的落後者正顯現企穩跡象。
圖表一：美國股市指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表ETF：DIA)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 標普500指數(代表ETF：SPY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表ETF：QQQ)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表ETF：IWM)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 費城半導體指數(代表ETF：SOXQ)：當前：--，上週：--
過去一週，美國主要股市指數皆延續正向趨勢。道瓊工業平均指數、標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數均維持其非常正向的評級，顯示市場信心普遍。小型股羅素2000指數亦維持其輕微正向的趨勢。在一個明顯的差異化跡象中，費城半導體指數則維持中性，表明此關鍵產業正落後於整體市場的漲勢。
圖表二：美國五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp) (股票代號：NVDA)：當前：--，上週：--
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp) (股票代號：MSFT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 蘋果(Apple Inc) (股票代號：AAPL)：當前：--，上週：▼
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc) (股票代號：AMZN)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- Meta (Meta Platforms Inc) (股票代號：META)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
美國最大的幾家公司之間表現呈現明顯的分歧。微軟(Microsoft Corp)和Meta (Meta Platforms Inc)持續是市場領導者，兩者均維持其非常正向的趨勢。亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc)亦穩定維持輕微正向的趨勢。相較之下，輝達(NVIDIA Corp)則維持中性，反映了半導體領域普遍的疲弱。最顯著的變化發生在蘋果(Apple Inc)，其趨勢從輕微負面改善至中性，顯示該股在經歷一段時間的表現不佳後正在尋求底部支撐。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Markets Shrug Off New Tariff Threats, Shifting Focus to Inflation and Earnings Tests
Despite a weekend announcement of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, investor attention has decisively turned to domestic economic signals.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 14, 2025
Executive Summary
- US equities overcame early selling pressure from new tariff announcements to close higher, signaling a shift in focus toward domestic economic indicators.
- Communication and financial stocks led the advance as investors anticipate the start of a Q2 earnings season where growth is projected to slow significantly.
- The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher to 4.43% as the bond market braces for tomorrow's CPI report, though long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
- All eyes are on the forthcoming June CPI data, with forecasts pointing to an acceleration in both headline and core inflation.
- The Trump administration escalated trade tensions by announcing 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico, set to take effect on August 1.
The market's resilience in the face of escalating trade rhetoric signals a critical shift in investor priorities. U.S. equities reversed an early slide to close in positive territory on Monday, demonstrating that the market's primary focus has pivoted from geopolitical headlines to the more immediate tests of domestic economic health: inflation data and corporate earnings. While President Trump's weekend announcement of 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico initially spooked markets, the recovery indicates investors are currently more concerned with the fundamental data arriving this week.
This week marks the kickoff of the second-quarter earnings season, a critical test of corporate health amidst recent policy shifts. Projections for S&P 500 earnings growth have been revised down sharply from the first quarter's robust expansion, now clustering in the 3.7% to 4.8% range. Sectors like energy and consumer discretionary are forecast to see the sharpest contractions, while technology and communications are expected to lead. Corporate guidance will be intensely scrutinized for commentary on profit margins and the real-world effects of the tariff environment.
The bond market is also in a holding pattern, with the 10-year Treasury yield edging up to 4.43% ahead of Tuesday's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Economists forecast that headline CPI will rise to 2.6% year-over-year, with the core figure, which strips out food and energy, increasing to 3.0%. While these figures suggest a near-term price bump—likely attributable to tariffs—long-term inflation expectations remain contained. This suggests that while the Federal Reserve will be watching closely, the immediate data may not be enough to alter its course, though it could delay potential rate cuts.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Indices & Stock Trends
Today's focus is on the U.S. equity market, where the major indices are maintaining a strong upward trend. This stability at the index level, however, masks a noteworthy divergence among the market's most influential companies. While some mega-cap stocks continue to show strong momentum, others have stalled, and one notable laggard is showing signs of stabilization.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: --, Last Week: --
The primary U.S. equity indices all held their positive trends over the past week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, and Nasdaq Composite each maintained their Strongly Positive ratings, signaling broad market confidence. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index also held its Mildly Positive trend. In a clear sign of differentiation, the PHLX Semiconductor Index remained Neutral, indicating that this key sector is lagging the broader market's advance.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Performance among the largest U.S. companies reveals a clear split. Microsoft Corp and Meta Platforms Inc continue to be market leaders, both maintaining their Strongly Positive trends. Amazon.com Inc also held steady with a Mildly Positive trend. In contrast, NVIDIA Corp remained Neutral, reflecting the broader weakness in the semiconductor space. The most significant change was in Apple Inc, which saw its trend improve from Mildly Negative to Neutral, suggesting the stock is finding a floor after a period of underperformance.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。