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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】輝達飆漲掩蓋市場謹慎，通膨與高債息考驗投資人定力
美國市場因符合預期的CPI及好壞參半的銀行財報而走勢分歧，為台積電關鍵報告前的台灣市場定下謹慎基調
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月15日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 美國股市收盤漲跌互見，輝達(Nvidia)強勢地帶動那斯達克指數上漲，而標z普500指數和道瓊指數則下滑，顯示科技股領漲與整體市場猶豫之間的明顯分歧。
- 主要銀行的強勁財報未能點燃市場的全面漲勢，投資者專注於像輝達(Nvidia)獲准在中國銷售特定AI晶片這樣的正面催化劑。
- 公債殖利率攀升，10年期公債殖利率推升至4.48%附近，反映通膨雖受控但依然頑固。
- 六月份的美國消費者物價指數符合預期，證實通膨並未加速，但仍頑固地高於美國聯準會的目標。
- 台灣國安基金決定持續其護盤措施，突顯了美國關稅政策不確定性所構成的重大風險。
今日盤勢的核心關鍵在於市場的明顯分化。在企業個別利多消息的驅動下，領導地位已顯著收窄至大型科技股。相較之下，市場其他部分則正在消化僵固性通膨、殖利率上揚以及財報前景不明等多重挑戰帶來的困境。這一點在輝達(NVIDIA)因中國銷售傳出正面消息而飆升，推動那斯達克指數走高的同時，道瓊工業平均指數和標普500指數則步履蹣跚的走勢中表露無遺。儘管摩根大通(JPM)和花旗集團(C)公布了強勁的季度業績，但銀行類股的反應好壞參半，顯示即使是正面的基本面，在總體經濟的逆風下也難以獲得動能。
六月份的CPI數據大致符合市場預期，暫時緩解了對通膨爆發的恐懼，但對於改變整體市場論述助益甚微。核心CPI月增率0.2%略低於預期，然而總體CPI年增率2.7%和核心通膨年增率2.9%的數字，仍僵持於聯準會的舒適區之上。債券市場的反應證實了此一評估；10年期美國公債殖利率上揚至4.48%，移至近期區間的上緣。殖利率的攀升對整體股市的估值構成挑戰，尤其是在標普500指數本益比已處於歷史高位的情況下。
美國收盤呈現種謹慎和分歧的格局，為今日台北股市設定了具挑戰性的外部環境。台股在已在週一因美國關稅威脅的壓力下跌，目前正呈現高檔盤整的跡象。國安基金決定持續其護盤計畫，直接點名關稅不確定性和全球風險，突顯了市場感受到的脆弱性。此外部壓力，加上外資在指數期貨建立近60,000口的淨空單部位，成為結算前的一大風險因素。
展望未來，市場焦點將明確轉向企業的財測。在美國，關於關稅影響的評論將至關重要。對台灣而言，所有目光都集中在本週四台積電的財報上。儘管其加速在美國的擴張計畫為長期樂觀情緒提供了支持，但任何謹慎的短期展望都可能受到馬來西亞AI晶片出口許可政策帶來的新不確定性的考驗。投資者應預期，在國安基金的國內支撐與外部逆風及沉重的法人空單部位抗衡之際，市場將持續波動。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢
今日的報告揭示了亞洲股市之間明顯的分歧。投資者的情緒正逐漸趨於兩極化，香港和新加坡的趨勢增強，而日本和南韓則顯現惡化跡象。在台灣，儘管整體市場趨勢保持穩定，但其龍頭企業之間的表現日益分歧，預示著一個更具選擇性的投資環境。
圖表一：區域股市指數(美元計價)
- 台灣(代表ETF：EWT)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 香港(代表ETF：EWH)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 新加坡(代表ETF：EWS)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
- 日本(代表ETF：EWJ)：當前：▼，上週：▲
- 南韓(代表ETF：EWY)：當前：▲，上週：▲▲
投資者對亞洲市場的信心正在分裂。新加坡的趨勢已從正向增強至非常正向，與香港持續的強勁上升趨勢相符。台灣則維持其穩定的正向趨勢。形成鮮明對比的是，日本股市已轉弱，其趨勢在過去一週從正向轉為負向。南韓雖然仍為正向，但其趨勢已從非常正向減速，顯示動能正在減弱。
圖表二：台灣五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd) (股票代號：2330)：當前：--，上週：--
- 鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd) (股票代號：2317)：當前：--，上週：▼
- 聯發科(MediaTek Inc) (股票代號：2454)：當前：▼，上週：▼▼
- 廣達電腦(Quanta Computer Inc) (股票代號：2382)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 台達電子(Delta Electronics Inc) (股票代號：2308)：當前：▲▲，上週：--
深入觀察台灣的頂尖企業，可發現顯著的表現差異。台達電子(Delta Electronics Inc.)表現突出，其趨勢從中性急劇加速至非常正向。鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd)的市場情緒亦有所改善，從負面趨勢轉為中性，聯發科(MediaTek Inc)的負面趨勢亦有所緩和。然而，指標股台積電(TSMC)則維持中性，顯示其正處於暫時停頓。廣達電腦(Quanta Computer Inc)持續落後，維持其輕微負面的趨勢。這表明投資者正變得更具辨別力，獎勵特定的個股而非整個產業。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Nvidia's Surge Masks Broader Market Caution as Inflation and Yields Test Investor Resolve
U.S. Markets Diverge on In-Line CPI and Mixed Bank Earnings, Setting a Cautious Tone for Taiwan Ahead of TSMC's Key Report
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 15, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities closed mixed, with the Nasdaq advancing on Nvidia's strength while the S&P 500 and Dow slipped, signaling a clear divergence between tech leadership and broader market hesitancy.
- Strong earnings from major banks failed to ignite a broad rally, with investors focusing on specific positive catalysts like Nvidia's approval to sell certain AI chips in China.
- Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield pushing toward 4.48%, reflecting that inflation remains contained but persistent.
- June's U.S. Consumer Price Index met expectations, confirming inflation is not accelerating but remains sticky above the Federal Reserve's target.
- The decision by Taiwan's National Security Fund to continue its market support underscores the significant risk posed by undetermined U.S. tariff policies.
The key takeaway from the session is the market's clear bifurcation. Leadership has narrowed significantly to mega-cap tech, driven by company-specific news, while the rest of the market digests a reality of sticky inflation, rising yields, and an uncertain earnings outlook. This was evident as a surge in Nvidia (NVDA) on positive China sales news propelled the Nasdaq higher, while the Dow and S&P 500 faltered. Despite strong quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C), the banking sector saw a mixed reaction, indicating that even positive fundamentals are struggling for traction against macroeconomic headwinds.
The June CPI data, coming in largely as expected, removed immediate fears of an inflationary breakout but did little to alter the prevailing narrative. The monthly core CPI reading of 0.2% was slightly cooler than forecast, but the annual figures of 2.7% for headline and 2.9% for core inflation remain stubbornly above the Fed's comfort zone. The bond market's reaction confirms this assessment; the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.48%, moving to the upper end of its recent range. This climb in yields presents a valuation challenge for the broader equity market, especially as the S&P 500 trades at a historically high P/E ratio.
This cautious and divergent U.S. close sets a challenging backdrop for Taipei. The Taiex is already exhibiting signs of a high-level consolidation, having fallen on Monday under the weight of U.S. tariff threats. The decision by the National Security Fund to continue its market support program highlights the perceived fragility, directly citing tariff uncertainty and global risks. This external pressure is compounded by the buildup of nearly 60,000 net short positions in index futures by foreign institutions, a significant risk factor heading into settlement.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts squarely to corporate guidance. In the U.S., commentary on tariff impacts will be critical. For Taiwan, all eyes are on TSMC's earnings report this Thursday. While long-term optimism is supported by its accelerated U.S. expansion plans, any cautious near-term guidance could be tested by the new uncertainty from Malaysia's AI chip export licensing policy. Investors should anticipate continued volatility as domestic support from the National Security Fund contends with external headwinds and heavy institutional shorting.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today's report reveals a clear divergence across Asian equity markets. Investor sentiment appears to be bifurcating, with strengthening trends in Hong Kong and Singapore, while Japan and South Korea are showing signs of deterioration. In Taiwan, the broader market trend holds steady, but performance among its leading companies is increasingly mixed, signaling a more selective investment environment.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Investor confidence in Asian markets is fracturing. The trend in Singapore has strengthened from positive to strongly positive, matching the sustained strong uptrend in Hong Kong. Taiwan maintained its stable positive trend. In sharp contrast, Japan's equity market has weakened, flipping from a positive to a negative trend over the past week. South Korea, while still positive, saw its trend decelerate from strongly positive, indicating waning momentum.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
A closer look at Taiwan's top companies reveals significant performance differentiation. Delta Electronics Inc. stands out as its trend accelerated sharply from neutral to strongly positive. Sentiment has also improved for Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, which moved from a negative trend to neutral, and for MediaTek Inc, where the negative trend moderated. However, the bellwether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd remains neutral, suggesting a pause. Quanta Computer Inc continues to lag, maintaining its mildly negative trend. This indicates that investors are becoming more discerning, rewarding specific names rather than the entire sector.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。