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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】財報助漲美股，AI狂推台股攻頂破紀錄
強勁的企業業績和溫和的通膨數據推動美國股市，而美國放寬對中國晶片出口限制的消息，為台灣科技股提供了強而有力的直接催化劑
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月16日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在美國市場上漲和台灣股市創下歷史新高的帶動下，全球股市情緒好轉。
- 美國股市由醫療保健和金融類股的強勁財報領漲，而台灣的AI相關股票則在美國據報將允許輝達(Nvidia)向中國銷售H20晶片後飆升。
- 在六月份生產者物價通膨意外持平後，美國公債殖利率下滑，強化了對美國聯準會今年稍晚降息的預期。
- 美國六月份生產者物價指數月增率持平，預示通膨壓力正在緩解，年增率更降至2024年9月以來最低。
- 白宮宣布與印尼達成新的貿易協議，並釋出對AI晶片出口的關鍵政策轉向訊號，而圍繞美國聯準會主席職位穩定性的揣測則引發了市場短暫波動。
今日盤勢顯示，美國投資者正將強勁的企業財報視為優先因素，凌駕於總體經濟逆風之上；而台灣市場則對有利於AI產業的特定地緣政治催化因素做出果斷反應。此種分歧突顯出，儘管整體經濟面題材仍具影響力，但特定公司的基本面和針對性的政策轉變現已逐漸成為市場資金關注的主軸。美國市場在疲弱的生產者物價數據支撐下持續上漲，進一步驗證在貿易不確定性與華府政治雜音交織之際，財報季正提供關鍵的支撐。
在美國，市場的強勢是由明確的基本面消息所帶動。嬌生(Johnson & Johnson)亮眼的財報和上修的財測推動了醫療保健類股，而像高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根史坦利(Morgan Stanley)等主要投資銀行則利用市場波動創下強勁的交易營收。此種財報的韌性，目前正蓋過對半導體和製藥產業可能課徵新關稅等風險。債券市場對持平的生產者物價數據反應正面，推低了殖利率，這提供了有利的貨幣政策前景，進一步支撐了股票估值。
對台灣而言，今日的市場論述主要由華府傳出將允許輝達(Nvidia)恢復向中國銷售H20晶片的消息所主導。此單一事件點燃了整體AI供應鏈的漲勢，將加權指數推升至新高，並證實了該產業的領導地位。台積電(TSMC)以及IC載板和砷化鎵供應商等個股的飆升，突顯了市場對此主題的極度關注。展望未來，台灣的焦點仍然是即將到來的台積電法說會，以及應對大量外資在指數期貨的淨空單部位可能帶來的波動。對美國市場而言，未來的路徑將取決於正面的財報趨勢能否持續蓋過貿易政策持續的不確定性。
週三資產焦點：美國總體經濟與債券趨勢
今日的分析揭示了實體經濟與金融市場情緒之間的明顯分歧。消費者信心和企業獲利等關鍵國內指標為正向，然而投資趨勢和債券市場卻釋放出謹慎的訊號。這表明儘管潛在的美國經濟看來強勁，但投資者正在為潛在的不利因素重新佈局，這很可能與通膨和不斷變化的資金流動有關。
圖表一：美國總體經濟指標
- 投資存續期間：當前：▼，上週：--
- 企業獲利：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 通貨膨脹：當前：▲，上週：--
- 資金流向(美元)：當前：▼，上週：▼▼
- 消費者信心：當前：▲，上週：▼
經濟前景呈現兩極化的觀點。一方面，消費者信心顯著改善，從負面轉為正向，且企業獲利維持穩固的正向。這指向一個具韌性的國內經濟。另一方面，投資存續期間的趨勢已從中性惡化至負面，而通貨膨脹指標則惡化至正向，預示物價壓力正在上升。儘管資金流入美元的趨勢有所改善，但仍為負面，表明資本流入依然疲弱。
圖表二：美國債券(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表ETF：SHY)：當前：--，上週：--
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表ETF：IEI)：當前：--，上週：▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表ETF：IEF)：當前：▼，上週：--
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表ETF：TLH)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表ETF：TLT)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼
美國債券市場顯示出投資者日益加劇的擔憂，中長天期公債普遍出現顯著惡化。20年期以上美國公D的趨勢已從負面惡化至非常負面，是一個顯著的看跌轉變。與此同時，7-10年期美國公債從中性轉弱至負面，3-7年期美國公債則從正向跌至中性。僅最短天期的債券保持穩定。此模式表明投資者正在拋售長天期債券，很可能是預期通膨將持續或未來利率存在不確定性，同時在短期債務的穩定性中尋求庇護。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Rallies on Earnings, Taiwan Hits Record High on AI Catalyst
Strong corporate results and benign inflation data propel U.S. equities, while news of eased U.S. chip export restrictions to China provides a powerful, direct catalyst for Taiwanese technology shares.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 16, 2025
Executive Summary
- Global equity sentiment improved as U.S. markets advanced and Taiwan's stock index reached a new record high.
- U.S. equities were led by strong earnings in the healthcare and financial sectors, while Taiwanese AI-related stocks surged following reports the U.S. will permit Nvidia to sell H20 chips to China.
- U.S. Treasury yields fell after producer price inflation came in unexpectedly flat for June, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.
- The flat monthly U.S. Producer Price Index reading signaled easing inflationary pressures, with the annual rate falling to its lowest since September 2024.
- The White House announced a new trade agreement with Indonesia and signaled a key policy shift on AI chip exports, while speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair's job security created temporary market volatility.
The day's trading showed that U.S. investors are prioritizing strong corporate earnings over macro headwinds, while Taiwanese markets reacted decisively to a specific geopolitical catalyst benefiting the AI sector. This divergence underscores that while broad economic themes persist, company-specific fundamentals and targeted policy shifts are now commanding investor attention. The U.S. advance, supported by soft producer price data, confirms that the earnings season is providing a critical pillar of support against a backdrop of trade uncertainty and political noise from Washington.
In the U.S., the strength was led by definitive fundamental news. Johnson & Johnson's robust earnings and upgraded forecast propelled the healthcare sector, while major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley capitalized on market volatility to post strong trading revenues. This earnings resilience is, for now, overshadowing risks like potential new tariffs on the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors. The bond market's positive reaction to flat producer prices, which sent yields lower, provides a favorable monetary policy outlook that further underpins equity valuations.
For Taiwan, the session's narrative was dominated by the report that Washington will permit Nvidia to resume selling H20 chips to China. This single development ignited a rally across the AI supply chain, pushing the TAIEX to a new high and confirming the sector's leadership. The surge in names like TSMC, as well as IC substrate and gallium arsenide suppliers, highlights the market's intense focus on this theme. Looking ahead, the focus for Taiwan remains on the upcoming TSMC earnings call and navigating potential volatility from the large foreign net short position in index futures. For U.S. markets, the path forward will be determined by whether the positive earnings trend can continue to outweigh the persistent uncertainties of trade policy.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economics & Bond Trends
Today's analysis reveals a clear divergence between the real economy and financial market sentiment. Key domestic indicators like consumer strength and corporate earnings are positive, yet investment trends and the bond market are signaling caution. This suggests that while the underlying U.S. economy appears robust, investors are repositioning for potential headwinds, likely linked to inflation and shifting currency flows.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Inflation: Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
The economic landscape presents a bifurcated view. On one hand, Consumer Strength has markedly improved, shifting from negative to positive, and Corporate Earnings remain firmly positive. This points to a resilient domestic economy. On the other hand, the trend for Investment Duration has deteriorated from neutral to negative, and the Inflation indicator has worsened to positive, signaling rising price pressures. While the trend for Currency Flow into the U.S. dollar improved, it remains negative, indicating that capital inflows are still weak.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: --
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
The U.S. bond market signals growing investor concern, with a notable deterioration across medium and long-duration Treasuries. The trend for 20+ Year US Treasuries has worsened from negative to strongly negative, a significant bearish shift. Concurrently, 7-10 Year US Treasuries weakened from neutral to negative, and 3-7 Year US Treasuries fell from positive to neutral. Only the shortest-term bonds remain stable. This pattern indicates that investors are selling off longer-dated bonds, likely in anticipation of sustained inflation or future rate uncertainty, while seeking refuge in the stability of short-term debt.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。