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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美數據、科技股實力推升市場創高；台股跟進AI引領的漲勢
美國強韌的經濟指標與全球AI相關股票的飆升，預示投資者信心普遍增強
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月17日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在全球股市，受美國令人鼓舞的經濟數據和科技類股的強勢帶動，標普500指數和那斯達克指數創下新紀錄。
- 強勁的零售銷售和低於預期的初請領失業金人數顯示美國經濟強韌，提振了投資者情緒，帶動美國股市上漲。
- 由於強勁的經濟數據減弱了對美國聯準會立即降息的預期，美國公債殖利率微幅上揚，10年期公債殖利率交易於4.46%。
- 優於預期的美國零售銷售和初請領失業金人數的下降，預示消費者信心持續，勞動市場雖有降溫但仍屬健康。
- 以色列在敘利亞進行空襲，加劇了地緣政治緊張局勢，助長了西德州中級(WTI)原油價格的上漲，與此同時，美國撤銷禁令，允許輝達(Nvidia)和超微半導體(AMD)恢復向中國銷售部分AI晶片，此為半導體產業的重大發展。
週四投資者樂觀情緒高漲，強勁的美國經濟報告為經濟韌性提供了新的證據，推動美國主要股市指數創下歷史新高。此正面動能亦反映在亞洲市場，由半導體類股領軍的台灣股市突破了關鍵的心理關卡。市場主要關注點在於信心的重振，美國消費者現況強勁、勞動市場穩健，這些正面訊號在投資人眼中的重要性大於持續的地緣政治風險，而人工智慧(AI)的熱潮則持續是全球科技股一個強而有力的獨特驅動因素。
美國市場受到一系列有利數據的提振。六月份零售銷售成長0.6%，優於預期，從前一個月的數據反彈，顯示消費者支出強勁。與此同時，初請領失業金人數降至221,000人，低於預期，指向勞動市場儘管略有降溫但依然健康。此種具韌性的消費者活動和勞動市場穩定性的組合，推動標普500指數和那斯達克指數創下新紀錄，激勵科技股與金融股領漲。為回應強勁的數據，債券殖利率微幅走高，但仍低於近期高點，表明儘管聯準會短期內可能按兵不動，但通膨擔憂目前受控。
在台灣，股市持續其亮眼的表現，加權指數收盤站上23,000點大關。此波漲勢受到全球AI狂熱以及對關鍵半導體企業有利發展的助燃。美國將允許輝達(Nvidia)和超微半導體(AMD)恢復向中國銷售特定AI晶片的消息，為市場情緒帶來了顯著提振，直接使台積電(TSMC)等巨擘受益，其股價上漲1.80%。外資法人轉為淨買超，顯示對此以科技股為重的市場持續抱持信心。
展望未來，焦點仍然集中在企業財報以及通膨和經濟成長的軌跡上。關鍵半導體業者的樂觀展望為科技類股提供了建設性的背景，該類股很可能將繼續影響美國和台灣的市場。儘管地緣政治緊張局勢和潛在的關稅影響仍然是風險因素，但來自美國的潛在經濟數據顯示，這為股市提供了一個支撐性的環境。市場能夠越過這些風險並專注於基本面實力，預示著在科技股的領導和耐久的消費者支撐下，阻力最小的路徑仍然是向上。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
今日的報告突顯了大宗商品市場的明顯分歧，以及美元兌新台幣近期弱勢的暫停。儘管工業和貴金屬展現強勢，但能源和農產品則仍然處於穩固的下降趨勢。
圖表一：貨幣(以新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對：USDTWD)：當前：--，上週：▼
- 歐元(貨幣對：EURTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 日圓(貨幣對：JPYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對：CNYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 加幣(貨幣對：CADTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
新台幣持續展現普遍的強勢，過去一週，歐元、日圓、人民幣和加幣對其均維持負面趨勢。值得注意的變化是美元，其走勢已趨於穩定，趨勢從負面改善至中性。這預示著美元兌新台幣近期的貶值趨勢可能暫告一段。
圖表二：大宗商品(以美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBE)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 農業類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBA)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
- 工業金屬(代表ETF：DBB)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 貴金屬(代表ETF：DBP)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 數位資產(代表ETF：IBIT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
大宗商品市場呈現明顯的分歧。由金融因素和投資需求驅動的趨勢依然強勁，貴金屬維持正向趨勢，數位資產則維持非常正向的展望。工業金屬亦維持其正向趨勢。相反地，與全球消費更緊密相關的大宗商品則表現疲弱，能源類大宗商品和農業類大宗商品均陷於其各自的負面和非常負面的趨勢中。此種兩極分化顯示，投資者正在尋求實物資產，而實體經濟活動的指標則閃爍著警示訊號。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Data, Tech Strength Propel Markets to New Highs; Taiwan Stocks Follow AI-Led Rally
Resilient Economic Indicators in the U.S. and Surging AI-Related Stocks Globally Signal Broad-Based Investor Confidence
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 17, 2025
Executive Summary
- Global equity markets rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new records, driven by encouraging U.S. economic data and strength in the technology sector.
- U.S. stocks advanced as strong retail sales and lower-than-expected jobless claims pointed to a resilient economy, boosting investor sentiment.
- U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year note trading at 4.46%, as the robust economic data tempered expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Better-than-anticipated U.S. retail sales and a decline in initial jobless claims signaled continued consumer strength and a healthy, albeit cooling, labor market.
- Geopolitical tensions rose as Israel conducted strikes in Syria, contributing to a rise in WTI crude oil prices, while the U.S. reversed a ban allowing Nvidia and AMD to resume selling some AI chips to China, a significant development for the semiconductor industry.
Investor optimism surged on Thursday, as strong U.S. economic reports provided fresh evidence of a resilient economy, powering major U.S. stock indices to record highs. This positive momentum was mirrored in Asia, where Taiwanese equities, led by the semiconductor sector, broke through a key psychological barrier. The primary narrative is one of renewed confidence, where robust consumer health and a solid labor market in the U.S. are outweighing persistent geopolitical risks, while the artificial intelligence boom continues to be a powerful, distinct driver for technology stocks globally.
The U.S. markets were buoyed by a confluence of favorable data. June's retail sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.6%, rebounding from the prior month and signaling robust consumer spending. Simultaneously, initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, below forecasts, which points to a labor market that remains healthy despite some cooling. This combination of resilient consumer activity and labor market stability propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new records, with technology and financial stocks leading the gains. Bond yields ticked modestly higher in response to the strong data, though they remain below their recent peaks, indicating that while the Fed may stay on hold in the near term, inflation concerns are currently contained.
In Taiwan, the stock market continued its impressive run, with the Taiex closing above the 23,000 mark. The rally was fueled by the global AI frenzy and positive developments for key semiconductor firms. News that the U.S. would permit Nvidia and AMD to resume sales of certain AI chips to China provided a significant boost to market sentiment, directly benefiting giants like TSMC, which saw its stock rise 1.80%. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers, signaling continued confidence in the tech-heavy bourse.
Looking ahead, the focus remains squarely on corporate earnings and the trajectory of inflation and economic growth. The positive outlook from key semiconductor players provides a constructive backdrop for the tech sector, which will likely continue to influence both U.S. and Taiwanese markets. While geopolitical tensions and potential tariff impacts remain as risk factors, the underlying economic data from the U.S. suggests a supportive environment for equities. The market's ability to look past these risks and focus on fundamental strength signals that the path of least resistance remains upward, driven by technology leadership and a durable consumer.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities Trends
Today's report highlights a clear divergence in commodity markets and a pause in the U.S. Dollar's recent weakness against the New Taiwan Dollar. While industrial and precious metals show strength, energy and agricultural goods remain in a firm downtrend.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The New Taiwan Dollar continues to show broad strength, with the Euro, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintaining their negative trends against it over the past week. The notable change is in the U.S. Dollar, which has stabilized, improving its trend from negative to neutral. This signals a potential pause in the greenback's recent depreciation against the TWD.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A sharp split defines the commodity complex. Trends driven by financial factors and investment demand remain strong, with Precious Metals holding a positive trend and Digital Assets maintaining a strongly positive outlook. Industrial Metals also held their positive trend. Conversely, commodities tied more closely to global consumption are weak, as Energy Commodities and Agricultural Commodities both remained locked in their respective negative and strongly negative trends. This bifurcation suggests investors are seeking hard assets while indicators of real economic activity flash caution.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。