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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】科技狂潮！美股飆創新高，為全球市場定調牛市
強勁財報蓋過地緣政治緊張，但關稅大限仍是關鍵風險
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月21日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在大型科技股於關鍵財報公布前飆升的帶動下，美國股市觸及歷史新高。
- 由於強勁的企業財報季蓋過了貿易不確定性，那斯達克指數和標普500指數創下新紀錄，此一動態亦反映在台灣市場，台積電的表現推動加權指數再創新高。
- 10年期美國公債殖利率下滑至約4.36%，顯示儘管股市上漲，但固定收益市場需求依然存在。
- 第二季財報季的強勁開局強化了企業成長強韌的論述，83%已公布財報的標普500指數成分股公司超出市場普遍預期。
- 投資者正應對企業基本面樂觀與對逼近的8月1日美國關稅最後期限的謹慎之間的明顯分歧。
市場傳遞出一個明確訊號：投資者正將強勁的企業基本面置於地緣政治風險之上。在Alphabet和特斯拉(Tesla)等科技巨頭將公布強勁財報的預期心理驅動下，美國指數飆升至歷史新高，展現了市場風險偏好情緒明顯升溫。這股動能也直接助燃了台灣股市，台積電(TSMC)優異的財務報告於上週五推動加權指數創下歷史新高，印證了全球投資者對AI供應鏈的高度關注。
此波漲勢有實際的數據支撐。截至目前，已有高達83%的標普500成分股企業財報優於市場預期，為當前的股票估值提供穩固基礎。與此同時，債券市場尚未釋出警訊；10年期公債殖利率已趨緩，顯示儘管美國聯準會對通膨保持警惕，但採取緊縮政策的即時壓力已有所緩解。此環境對成長股尤其有利。儘管波動率仍處於歷史低位，但技術面值得關注，因為那斯達克100指數的相對強弱指標(RSI)在持續上漲後，正徘徊於超買區域附近。
當前的漲勢面臨正面臨一項關鍵挑戰：即將來到的8月1日歐盟和日本關稅談判的最後期限。儘管市場選擇專注於正面的企業消息，但若未能達成貿易協議，則可能迅速重新引發市場波動。對台灣而言，加權指數的技術姿態在關鍵的23,000點水平之上依然強勁，但投資者正等待新關稅談判的明朗化，並密切關注國內消息，包括台積電嘉義CoWoS廠的暫時停工事件。未來一週的交易焦點將完全集中在美國科技龍頭的財報結果上，這將是對此波漲勢可持續性的關鍵考驗。
週一資產焦點：美國指數與個股趨勢
今日焦點聚焦於美國股市。過去一週主要指數普遍改善，顯示投資者情緒出現明顯回暖。然而，在市值最大的幾家大型股之間，表現分歧加劇，顯示投資者正變得高度選擇性。
圖表一：美國股市指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表ETF：DIA)：當前：▲，上週：--
- 標普500指數(代表ETF：SPY)：當前：▲，上週：--
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表ETF：QQQ)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表ETF：IWM)：當前：--，上週：▼
- 費城半導體指數(代表ETF：SOXQ)：當前：--，上週：▼
過去一週，美國股市展現出明確的正向轉變。大型股道瓊工業平均指數和標普500指數雙雙從中性改善至輕微正向的趨勢。以科技股為重的那斯達克綜合指數則維持其既有的輕微正向動能。重要的是，市場中較弱的類股顯現趨穩的跡象。小型股羅素2000指數和費城半導體指數均從輕微負面改善至中性，中止了先前的跌勢。這證實了市場力道的廣度正在擴大。
圖表二：美國五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp) (股票代號：NVDA)：當前：--，上週：--
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp) (股票代號：MSFT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 蘋果(Apple Inc) (股票代號：AAPL)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc) (股票代號：AMZN)：當前：▲，上週：--
- Meta (Meta Platforms Inc) (股票代號：META)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
市場上市值最大的幾家公司之間已出現明顯的表現分歧，顯示投資者正在區分領導者與落後者。微軟(Microsoft Corp)維持其非常正向的趨勢，而Meta (Meta Platforms Inc.)的趨勢則從輕微正向加速至非常正向。亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc.)亦有改善，從中性轉為輕微正面。相較之下，輝達(NVIDIA Corp.)則維持中性，顯示其動能暫歇。蘋果(Apple Inc.)持續是顯著的落後者，維持其非常負面的趨勢，並成為大型股中的主要拖累。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Tech Rally Powers U.S. Indices to Record Highs, Setting a Bullish Tone for Global Markets
Strong Earnings Outweigh Geopolitical Jitters, but Looming Tariff Deadline Remains a Key Risk
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 21, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. stocks reached new all-time highs as a surge in mega-cap technology stocks preceded key earnings reports.
- The Nasdaq and S&P 500 set new records as a strong corporate earnings season overshadowed trade uncertainties, a dynamic reflected in Taiwan where TSMC's performance drove the Taiex to new highs.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined to approximately 4.36%, indicating fixed-income demand even as equities rallied.
- A robust start to the Q2 earnings season has reinforced the narrative of resilient corporate growth, with 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating consensus estimates.
- Investors are navigating a clear divergence between optimism over corporate fundamentals and caution surrounding the approaching August 1 U.S. tariff deadline.
The dominant signal from the market is that investors are prioritizing strong corporate fundamentals over geopolitical risk. The surge in U.S. indices to record highs, driven by anticipation of robust earnings from giants like Alphabet and Tesla, demonstrates a powerful risk-on sentiment. This momentum has directly fueled the Taiwan stock market, where TSMC's exceptional financial report propelled the Taiex to a record high last Friday, confirming the global investor focus on the AI supply chain.
This rally is underpinned by tangible data. An impressive 83% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have surpassed earnings expectations, providing a solid foundation for current equity valuations. Concurrently, bond markets are not signaling alarm; the 10-year Treasury yield has eased, suggesting that while the Federal Reserve remains watchful on inflation, the immediate pressure for restrictive policy has subsided. This environment is particularly favorable for growth stocks. While volatility remains historically low, the technical picture warrants monitoring, as the Nasdaq-100's Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near overbought territory after a sustained advance.
The primary challenge to this bullish trend is the impending August 1 tariff deadline facing the EU and Japan. While the market has chosen to focus on positive corporate news, a failure to secure trade agreements could swiftly reintroduce volatility. For Taiwan, the technical posture of the Taiex remains strong above the key 23,000-point level, but investors are awaiting clarity on new tariff negotiations and monitoring domestic news, including the temporary work stoppage at TSMC's Chiayi CoWoS facility. The focus for the trading week ahead will be squarely on the earnings results from U.S. tech leaders, which will serve as a critical test for the rally's sustainability.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Indices & Stock Trends
Today's focus is on the U.S. equity market. The primary takeaway is a broad improvement across major indices over the past week, signaling a positive shift in investor sentiment. However, a sharp divergence in performance among the largest mega-cap leaders indicates that investors are becoming highly selective.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Avg (Proxy: DIA): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy: IWM): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy: SOXQ): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
The U.S. equity market demonstrated a clear positive shift over the last week. The large-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index both improved from a Neutral to a Mildly Positive trend. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite maintained its existing Mildly Positive momentum. Importantly, weaker segments of the market showed stabilization. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index both improved from Mildly Negative to Neutral, halting their prior decline. This confirms a broadening of market strength.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
A clear performance split has emerged among the market's largest stocks, signaling that investors are differentiating between leaders and laggards. Microsoft Corp. maintained its Strongly Positive trend, while Meta Platforms Inc. saw its trend accelerate from Mildly Positive to Strongly Positive. Amazon.com Inc. also showed improvement, shifting from Neutral to Mildly Positive. In contrast, NVIDIA Corp. remained Neutral, indicating a pause in its momentum. Apple Inc. continues to be a significant laggard, holding its Strongly Negative trend and acting as a major headwind among mega-caps.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。