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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】標普創高但市場分歧，關稅隱憂拖累科技股
投資人焦點從全面上漲轉向特定財報影響，引發資金從領導類股輪動
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月22日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 美國市場呈現明顯分歧，標普500指數微幅創下新高，而以科技股為重的那斯達克指數則從近期高點回落。
- 大型科技股的回檔中止了連續九天的漲勢，引發資金輪動至包括小型股在內的其他領域。
- 隨著投資者謹慎情緒升溫，美國公債殖利率下滑，十年期公債殖利率在尋求避險的過程中跌至4.33%。
- 第二季財報季正揭示貿易政策的實質影響，通用汽車(General Motors)因關稅提列11億美元的虧損即為明證。
- 逼近的8月1日關稅最後期限仍然是市場主要的不利因素，儘管貿易談判仍在進行，但已造成投資者的不確定性。
市場表面之下正出現明顯的資金輪動，這是一項關鍵訊號，表明投資者的信心正面臨考驗。儘管標普500指數再創歷史新高，顯示整體市場仍具一定程度的韌性，但那斯達克指數的同步回檔證實，隨著投資者變得更具選擇性，市場的領漲結構已開始動搖。這種分歧走勢是由好壞參半的財報季與不可避免的8月1日關稅最後期限的現實，相互衝擊所驅動。市場焦點已明確地從廣泛的市場動能，轉向貿易政策對企業獲利能力具體且多樣化的影響。
關稅帶來的的實質衝擊已不再只是假設。通用汽車(General Motors)揭露其利潤受到11億美元的衝擊，將工業產業面臨的不利因素具體化，營造了謹慎的基調。這與其他產業的強勢形成對比，描繪出一個在當前環境中，積極區分贏家和輸家的市場。這種動態亦反映在台灣市場，在經歷了近期的創紀錄漲勢後，市場進入盤整階段。儘管加權指數小幅回檔，但資金輪動至印刷電路板(PCB)和IC設計等領域的中小型股，即使市場仍在等待對台灣自身AI供應鏈論述至關重要的美國科技巨頭，如Alphabet和特斯拉(Tesla)的關鍵財報。
展望未來，股市的路徑將由兩大關鍵因素所主導：企業財報表現和貿易相關的頭條新聞。美國大型科技公司即將公布的財報，將是對市場領導地位的核心考驗。與此同時，美國聯準會的鴿派傾向——期貨市場預期9月份降息的機率超過50%——透過對美元和債券殖利率施壓，提供了一個支撐性的背景。然而，此政策的支撐可能不足以抵銷來自企業報告或貿易敵對行動升級的負面意外。對台灣而言，儘管技術趨勢保持正向，但市場對美國的情緒以及任何有關潛在半導體關稅的消息仍然高度敏感。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢
今日的報告聚焦於亞洲主要股市和台灣最大的幾家公司。趨勢訊號顯示區域指數普遍走強，台灣和南韓的動能正在加速。然而，深入觀察台灣的龍頭企業，則揭示了顯著的表現分歧，表明投資者高度具選擇性。
圖表一：區域股市指數(美元計價)
- 台灣(代表ETF：EWT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
- 香港(代表ETF：EWH)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 新加坡(代表ETF：EWS)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 日本(代表ETF：EWJ)：當前：--，上週：▼
- 南韓(代表ETF：EWY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
過去一週，亞洲市場的趨勢已明確改善。台灣和南韓的趨勢均從正向加速至非常正向。香港和新加坡維持其非常正向的動能，證實了投資者信心的持續。最顯著的轉變發生在日本，其趨勢從負面改善至中性，預示該市場可能正在觸底。
圖表二：台灣五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd) (股票代號：2330)：當前：--，上週：--
- 鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd) (股票代號：2317)：當前：▼，上週：--
- 聯發科(MediaTek Inc) (股票代號：2454)：當前：--，上週：▼
- 廣達電腦(Quanta Computer Inc) (股票代號：2382)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼
- 台達電子(Delta Electronics Inc) (股票代號：2308)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
台灣最大的幾家公司之間已出現明顯的兩極分化。台達電子(Delta Electronics)仍然是傑出的領導者，維持其非常正向的趨勢。相較之下，鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry)和廣達電腦(Quanta Computer)的趨勢則有所惡化，後者更轉弱至非常負面的訊號。儘管台積電(TSMC)維持中性，但聯發科(MediaTek)的趨勢已穩定下來，從負面改善至中性。這顯示投資者在台灣市場中，正對認定的贏家和輸家進行明顯的區別對待。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
S&P 500 Hits New Record Amid Market Divergence as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Tech
Investor Focus Shifts From Broad Rally to Specific Earnings Impacts, Prompting a Rotation Out of Sector Leaders
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 22, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets displayed a clear divergence, with the S&P 500 inching to a new record while the technology-focused Nasdaq retreated from its recent highs.
- A pullback in mega-cap technology stocks halted a nine-day winning streak, triggering a capital rotation into other areas, including small-caps.
- U.S. Treasury yields declined as investor caution grew, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.33% amidst the search for safety.
- The Q2 earnings season is revealing the tangible impact of trade policy, exemplified by General Motors reporting a $1.1 billion loss attributed to tariffs.
- The looming August 1 tariff deadline remains the dominant market headwind, creating investor uncertainty despite ongoing trade negotiations.
The market is undergoing a significant rotation beneath the surface, a clear signal that investor conviction is being tested. While the S&P 500's fresh record close suggests underlying resilience, the concurrent pullback in the Nasdaq confirms that leadership is faltering as investors grow more selective. This bifurcation is driven by the collision of a mixed earnings season with the inescapable reality of the August 1 tariff deadline. The focus has decisively shifted from broad market momentum to the specific, and varied, impacts of trade policy on corporate profitability.
The tangible effects of tariffs are no longer theoretical. General Motors' disclosure of a $1.1 billion hit to profits crystallizes the headwind for industrial companies, creating a cautious tone. This contrasts with strength in other sectors, illustrating a market that is actively differentiating between winners and laggards in the current environment. This dynamic is mirrored in Taiwan, where the market is consolidating after its recent record run. While the Taiex pulled back slightly, funds rotated into small and medium-sized stocks in areas like PCBs and IC design, even as the market awaits crucial earnings reports from U.S. tech giants like Alphabet and Tesla that are vital to Taiwan's own AI supply chain narrative.
Looking ahead, the path for equities will be dictated by two primary forces: earnings quality and trade headlines. The upcoming results from U.S. mega-cap tech companies will be a critical test for market leadership. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's dovish tilt, with futures markets pricing a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut by September, provides a supportive backdrop by pressuring the U.S. dollar and bond yields. However, this policy support may not be enough to offset negative surprises from either corporate reports or an escalation in trade hostilities. For Taiwan, while the technical trend remains positive, the market remains highly sensitive to U.S. sentiment and any news regarding potential semiconductor tariffs.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today’s report focuses on key Asian equity markets and the largest Taiwanese companies. The trend signals a broad strengthening across regional indices, with Taiwan and South Korea showing accelerating momentum. However, a closer look at Taiwan's leading companies reveals a significant performance divergence, indicating investors are highly selective.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
The trend in Asian markets has improved decisively over the past week. Taiwan and South Korea both saw their trends accelerate from positive to strongly positive. Hong Kong and Singapore maintained their strongly positive momentum, confirming sustained investor confidence. The most notable shift occurred in Japan, where the trend improved from negative to neutral, signaling a potential bottoming process for that market.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A clear bifurcation has emerged among Taiwan's largest companies. Delta Electronics remains the standout leader, maintaining its strongly positive trend. In contrast, trends at Hon Hai Precision Industry and Quanta Computer have deteriorated, with the latter weakening to a strongly negative signal. While Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd remains neutral, MediaTek’s trend has stabilized, improving from negative to neutral. This shows investors are differentiating sharply between perceived winners and laggards within the Taiwanese market.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。