【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美日貿易協議推升美股創新高，與謹慎的台灣市場形成分歧

2025/07/24

•

貿易突破緩解近期關稅擔憂，帶動美國市場廣泛上漲，而台灣股市則因本土不確定性下跌

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月23日

重點摘要

在美國和日本宣布一項重大的貿易協議後，美國股市飆升至新高紀錄，標普500指數收盤再創新高。
市場呈現明顯分歧，美國股市普遍上漲，而台灣加權指數則因未解決的關稅擔憂而急跌失守關鍵的23,000點大關。
在風險偏好交易日中，債券殖利率溫和上揚，10年期美國公債殖利率移至4.38%，但仍處於近期區間內。
第二季企業財報前景有所改善，88%已公布財報的標普500指數成分股公司超出預期，使綜合成長預測上修。
一項具里程碑意義的美日貿易協議，將計畫中的關稅降至15%，並包含日本對美5500億美元的投資承諾，果斷地平息了市場的擔憂。

美日貿易協議的宣布成為強力催化劑，迅速將美國市場情緒由焦慮轉為樂觀，並將標普500指數推升至歷史新高。這項發展凸顯了投資者正對具體的政策發展做出反應，而非僅僅受到一般言論所影響。美日雙方的協議內容將部分日本進口商品的預期關稅從25%降至15%，帶動了由工業和醫療保健類股領漲的廣泛漲勢，並使市場波動率驟降。市場對此的正向反應表明，投資者相信此協議可能成為解決其他貿易爭端，特別是美歐之間談判的範例，尤其在8月1日的最後期限之前。

與美股強勢表現形成鮮明對比的是，台灣股市經歷了顯著的逆轉，加權指數跌破關鍵的23,000點支撐水平和5日移動平均線。此急劇下跌釋出技術面偏空的訊號，其驅動因素在於台灣自身的關稅談判缺乏明朗性，以及台積電(TSMC)等權值股的走勢疲弱。這種分歧突顯了一個關鍵的市場動態：儘管正面的總體經濟發展可以提振全球情緒，但局部性的風險和不確定性正導致投資者進行明顯的分化，對仍面臨貿易問題懸而未決的市場造成了沉重打擊。

隨著來自日本的即時貿易風險消退，市場焦點現已重新回到財報季本身。即將公布的Alphabet和特斯拉(Tesla)財報，將成為判斷科技類股能否恢復其領導地位的關鍵考驗。到目前為止，本季財報表現大致優異：已有88%已公布財報的公司業績超出預期，為當前的估值提供了堅實的基本面支撐。儘管台灣股市的技術面已轉弱，預示著一段高檔盤整期，但美國市場未來的路徑將取決於企業財報的強勁表現能否維持由貿易突破所產生的動能。

週三資產焦點：美國總體經濟與債券趨勢

今日的報告揭示了美國經濟情勢在關鍵內部指標上保持穩定，但資本流動的顯著惡化值得關注。而在債券市場，則出現了明顯的分歧，投資者偏好中短天期債券，同時持續迴避長天期債券。

圖表一：美國總體經濟指標

投資存續期間：當前：▼，上週：▼
企業獲利：當前：▲，上週：▲
通貨膨脹：當前：▲，上週：▲
資金流向(美元)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼
消費者信心：當前：▲，上週：▲

評論：

過去一週，主要的美國經濟指標保持穩定，但資本流動出現了顯著的趨勢惡化。企業獲利、通膨趨勢和消費者信心均維持其正面的短期趨勢。然而，資金流入美元的趨勢從負面轉弱至非常負面，預示全球投資者的規避情緒正在增強。投資存續期間的指標則維持其負面趨勢，反映出市場持續的謹慎態度。

圖表二：美國債券(美元計價)

1-3年期美國公債(代表ETF：SHY)：當前：--，上週：--
3-7年期美國公債(代表ETF：IEI)：當前：▲，上週：--
7-10年期美國公債(代表ETF：IEF)：當前：--，上週：▼▼
10-20年期美國公債(代表ETF：TLH)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
20年期以上美國公債(代表ETF：TLT)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼

較短和中期債券出現顯著改善。7-10年期美國公債的趨勢從非常負面改善至中性，是一個重要的企穩訊號。與此同時，3-7年期美國公債從中性轉為正向。形成鮮明對比的是，殖利率曲線的長端仍然處於深度負面，10-20年期和20年期以上美國公債均維持其非常負面的趨勢。這表明投資者對曲線的中段正變得具建設性，但持續規避長天期風險。

👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。

📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。

📰追蹤此部落格。

💬LINE好友。

➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。

本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Markets Hit Record Highs on U.S.-Japan Trade Deal, Creating Divergence with Cautious Taiwan Market

Trade Breakthrough Eases Near-Term Tariff Fears and Fuels Broad U.S. Rally, While Taiwan Stocks Fall on Localized Uncertainty

By Joe 盧, CFA | July 23, 2025

Executive Summary

U.S. equities surged to new records, with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh high, driven by a significant trade agreement announced between the U.S. and Japan.
The market showed clear divergence as U.S. stocks rallied broadly, while Taiwan's index fell sharply below the key 23,000-point mark on unresolved tariff concerns.
Bond yields rose modestly in a risk-on session, with the 10-year Treasury yield moving to 4.38%, though it remains within its recent range.
The outlook for Q2 corporate earnings improved, with 88% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating estimates, revising the blended growth forecast higher.
A landmark U.S.-Japan trade deal that reduces planned tariffs to 15% and includes a $550 billion investment pledge from Japan decisively calmed market fears.

The announcement of a U.S.-Japan trade agreement served as a powerful catalyst, decisively shifting U.S. market sentiment from anxiety to optimism and pushing the S&P 500 to a new record high. This development confirms that investors are responding to concrete policy progress rather than general rhetoric. The deal, which lowers prospective tariffs on Japanese imports from 25% to 15%, fueled a broad-based rally led by the industrial and healthcare sectors and sent volatility plunging. The market’s enthusiastic response indicates a belief that this agreement could be a template for resolving other trade disputes, particularly with the European Union, ahead of the August 1 deadline.

In stark contrast, the Taiwan stock market experienced a significant reversal, with the weighted index falling below the critical 23,000-point support level and the 5-day moving average. The sharp decline, which generated a negative technical signal, was driven by a lack of clarity on Taiwan’s own tariff negotiations and weakness in heavyweight stocks like TSMC. This divergence underscores a key market dynamic: while positive macro developments can lift global sentiment, localized risks and uncertainties are causing investors to differentiate sharply, punishing markets that still face unresolved trade questions.

With the immediate trade risk from Japan abating, the focus now pivots to the heart of earnings season. The upcoming reports from Alphabet and Tesla will provide a critical test of whether the technology sector can resume its leadership role. So far, the earnings season has been overwhelmingly positive, with 88% of reporting companies beating forecasts, providing a strong fundamental underpinning for current valuations. While the technical picture for Taiwan stocks has weakened, suggesting a period of high-level consolidation, the U.S. market's path forward will be dictated by whether the strength of corporate earnings can sustain the momentum generated by the trade breakthrough.

Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economics & Bond Trends

Today's report reveals a U.S. economic landscape holding steady on key internal measures, but a notable deterioration in capital flows warrants attention. In the bond market, a clear divergence has emerged, with investors favoring short-to-intermediate term debt while continuing to shun long-duration bonds.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators

Investment Duration: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Inflation: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
Consumer Strength: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

Commentary:

The primary U.S. economic indicators remained stable over the past week, but a significant trend deterioration occurred in capital flows. Corporate Earnings, inflation trends, and Consumer Strength all maintained their positive short-term trends. However, the trend for Currency Flow into the U.S. dollar weakened from negative to strongly negative, signaling a growing aversion by global investors. The indicator for Investment Duration held its negative trend, reflecting continued caution.

Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)

1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: --
3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼

Shorter and intermediate-duration bonds showed marked improvement. The 7-10 Year US Treasuries saw its trend improve from strongly negative to neutral, a significant stabilization. Concurrently, the 3-7 Year US Treasuries shifted from neutral to positive. In sharp contrast, the long end of the curve remains deeply negative, with both 10-20 Year and 20+ Year Treasuries maintaining their strongly negative trends. This indicates investors are becoming constructive in the middle of the curve but continue to avoid long-duration risk.

👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.

📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.

📰Follow this blog.

💬Connect with us on LINE.

➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。