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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】AI狂熱推升標普再創新高，但市場看法分歧
科技巨頭因強勁財報與投資訊號上漲，貿易協議樂觀情緒提振美台兩地市場，惟潛在經濟放緩跡象仍存
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月24日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在以科技股為主的標普500指數和那斯達克指數創下新紀錄之際，美國市場表現分歧，道瓊工業平均指數和小型股羅素2000指數則下跌。
- 在Alphabet受AI驅動的強勁業績帶動下，大型科技股的反彈推動了主要指數走高，蓋過了特斯拉(Tesla)股價的急劇下跌。
- 政府公債殖利率和美元保持穩定，顯示當日的風險偏好情緒僅侷限於特定的類股，而非廣泛的總體經濟轉變。
- 強韌的美國初請領失業金數據與持續的經濟成長放緩形成對比，而台灣強勁的工業生產則突顯了與AI相關的蓬勃需求。
- 圍繞一項新的美日貿易協議的樂觀情緒，其中關稅稅率低於擔憂的15%，為市場帶來正面情緒，並引發對歐盟和南韓達成類似協議的預期。
今日交易的核心結論是，市場資金正高度集中於人工智慧(AI)成長題材，這導致科技領頭羊與市場其他類股之間出現了明顯表現分歧。標普500指數和那斯達克指數推升至歷史新高，但這並非一次全面性的上漲。此波漲勢由少數幾家大型科技股所驅動，此前Alphabet公布了亮眼的第二季業績並上調了資本支出預測，預示著對AI基礎設施的強勁需求。這驗證了市場的主要論述，並提振了微軟(Microsoft)和輝達(Nvidia)等同儕的股價。但是，這樣強勢的走勢掩蓋了市場潛在的選擇性；特斯拉(Tesla)在公布謹慎的展望後股價急劇下跌，而道瓊工業平均指數則因IBM和聯合健康(UnitedHealth)等成分股的疲弱報告而顯著落後。
此種分歧的市場走勢，發生在貿易緊張局勢緩解的背景之下。美日貿易協議的正式宣布——將關稅設定在15%，而非更具懲罰性的稅率——為全球市場情緒提供了顯著的提振。這一發展激勵了台灣股市的強勁上漲，投資者樂觀地認為，對其至關重要的出口導向型經濟也能達成類似的協議。此樂觀情緒其來有自，因為台灣的工業生產和電力消耗數據證實了其為全球AI投資週期的主要受益者。儘管新的貿易協議避免了最壞情況的發生，但川普總統宣稱15%將是關稅稅率底線，意味著貿易摩擦仍將是全球經濟的不利因素。
在整體指數持穩的表象之下，經濟數據仍顯示出成長動能放緩。美國今年上半年的GDP成長率追蹤數據為溫和的1%年化速度，儘管初請領失業金人數處於低檔，但預計此溫和趨勢將持續。目前而言，經濟看來足夠強韌以避免衰退，使得以AI為核心的股市漲勢得以延續。在台灣，加權指數的技術指標依然看漲，且外資機構的資本流入強勁。
展望未來，市場焦點將持續集中於尚未公布財報的美國科技巨擘。對台灣而言，儘管其科技類股的基本面前景強勁，但在與美國的關稅談判出現具體消息前，市場很可能會在23,000點水平附近盤整。當前的主流策略仍然是專注於直接參與持久AI成長主題的優質大型股。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
今日的焦點揭示了大宗商品市場的風險偏好情緒，投資者偏好實物資產和數位貨幣，而非能源和農產品。在貨幣市場，新台幣對主要全球貨幣展現出廣泛的強勢，其中美元趨勢在過去一週顯著惡化。
圖表一：貨幣(以新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對：USDTWD)：當前：▼，上週：--
- 歐元(貨幣對：EURTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 日圓(貨幣對：JPYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對：CNYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 加幣(貨幣對：CADTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
過去一週，美元兌新台幣的趨勢已轉弱，從中性轉為輕微負面。此一轉變使其與其他主要貨幣趨於一致，因為歐元、日圓、人民幣和加幣均維持其既有的輕微負面趨勢。數據顯示，新台幣對此一籃子貨幣呈現廣泛的走強趨勢。
圖表二：大宗商品(以美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBE)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 農業類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBA)：當前：▼，上週：▼▼
- 工業金屬(代表ETF：DBB)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 貴金屬(代表ETF：DBP)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
- 數位資產(代表ETF：IBIT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
貴金屬的趨勢已從輕微正向加速至非常正向，而數位資產則維持其非常正向的基礎，預示著強烈的投資者偏好。工業金屬亦維持其輕微正向的趨勢。相較之下，軟性商品則表現落後；能源類大宗商品維持輕微負面，儘管農業類大宗商品的趨勢已從非常負面改善至輕微負面，顯示其近期的跌勢正在趨緩。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
AI Fervor Drives S&P 500 to New Highs in a Split-Decision Market
Technology giants rally on strong earnings and investment signals, while trade deal optimism buoys both U.S. and Taiwanese markets, masking underlying economic slowdowns.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 24, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets saw a split performance as the tech-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new records, while the Dow and small-cap Russell 2000 declined.
- A rally in mega-cap technology stocks, led by Alphabet's strong AI-driven results, propelled the major indices higher, overshadowing a sharp drop in Tesla shares.
- Government bond yields and the U.S. dollar remained stable, indicating the day's risk-on sentiment was confined to specific equity segments rather than a broad macroeconomic shift.
- Resilient U.S. jobless claims data contrasted with a persistent slowdown in economic growth, while strong industrial production in Taiwan highlighted booming AI-related demand.
- Optimism surrounding a new U.S.-Japan trade agreement, with a lower-than-feared 15% tariff, fueled positive sentiment and expectations of similar deals for the EU and Korea.
The single most important conclusion from today's trading is that investor capital is chasing the Artificial Intelligence growth story with singular focus, creating a sharp performance divergence between technology leaders and the rest of the market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to new all-time highs, but this was not a broad-based rally. The advance was led by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks after Alphabet posted impressive Q2 results and increased its capital expenditure forecast, signaling robust demand for AI infrastructure. This validated the market's primary narrative and lifted peers like Microsoft and Nvidia. However, this strength masks underlying selectivity; Tesla's shares fell sharply after a cautious outlook, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged significantly due to weak reports from constituents like IBM and UnitedHealth.
This divided market action unfolded against a backdrop of easing trade tensions. The formal announcement of a U.S.-Japan trade deal, which sets tariffs at 15% rather than a more punitive rate, provided a significant tailwind for global sentiment. This development spurred a strong rally in Taiwan, where investors are optimistic that a similar agreement can be reached for its crucial export-driven economy. The optimism is well-founded, as Taiwan's industrial production and electricity consumption data confirm it is a key beneficiary of the global AI investment cycle. While the new trade deals avert a worst-case scenario, President Trump's comments that 15% would be a floor for tariff rates signals that trade friction will remain a persistent headwind for the global economy.
Beneath the headline index performance, economic data continues to point toward a slowdown. U.S. GDP growth tracked at a modest 1% annualized pace in the first half of the year, and while jobless claims remain low, the moderation is expected to persist. For now, the economy appears resilient enough to avoid a recession, allowing the AI-centric equity rally to continue. In Taiwan, technical indicators for the TAIEX remain bullish, and capital inflows from foreign institutions are strong.
Looking ahead, the market's focus will remain squarely on the earnings and guidance from the remaining technology titans. For Taiwan, while the fundamental picture for its tech sector is strong, the market will likely consolidate around the 23,000 level until there is concrete news on its tariff negotiations with the United States. The prevailing strategy remains to focus on high-quality, large-cap companies that are direct participants in the durable AI growth theme.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities Trends
Today's focus reveals a risk-on sentiment in commodity markets, with investors favoring hard assets and digital currencies over energy and agriculture. In currency markets, the New Taiwan Dollar is showing broad strength against major global currencies, with the U.S. Dollar trend notably deteriorating over the past week.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The trend for the U.S. Dollar against the New Taiwan Dollar has weakened over the last week, shifting from Neutral to Mildly Negative. This shift brings it in line with other major currencies, as the Euro, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained their existing Mildly Negative trends. The data indicates a broad-based strengthening of the New Taiwan Dollar against this basket of currencies.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The trend in Precious Metals has accelerated from Mildly Positive to Strongly Positive, while Digital Assets maintained their Strongly Positive footing, signaling strong investor preference. Industrial Metals also held their Mildly Positive trend. In contrast, softer commodities are lagging; Energy Commodities remain Mildly Negative, though the trend for Agricultural Commodities has improved from Strongly Negative to Mildly Negative, indicating its recent decline is moderating.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。