【Joe’s華爾街脈動】財報亮麗貿易樂觀，美股創新高迎週末

穩健的企業業績與對美歐貿易協議的期望提振市場信心，拉抬全球市場情緒

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月25日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 在強勁的財報季和貿易緊張局勢緩解的支撐下，美國股市本週收於歷史高點，標普500指數和那斯達克指數再創新紀錄。
• 美國股市的全面上漲由原物料和工業類股領漲，而台灣股市在全球AI主題的支撐下，維持強勁的區間盤整格局。
• 美國10年期公債殖利率下滑，本週收於4.38%，反映固定收益市場對未來政策寬鬆的預期。
• 優於預期的美國耐久財訂單和強韌的初請領失業金人數數據，指向製造業趨於穩定以及勞動市場的穩健。
• 圍繞潛在美歐貿易協議的正面訊號以及一項美國AI投資計畫，強化了市場的風險偏好立場。

市場本週以強勁的動能作收，顯示投資者正明確地將強勁的企業基本面和貿易政策的具體進展置於揮之不去的不確定性之上。標普500指數和那斯達克指數推升至歷史新高，證實了優於預期的財報季與地緣政治摩擦緩解的組合，已釋放了顯著的風險偏好。近期美日貿易協議將成為與歐盟達成類似協議的藍圖的期望，更放大了這種樂觀情緒。

此波樂觀情緒正直接支撐著台灣市場，全球AI投資熱潮依舊是推動市場的核心驅動力。川普總統近期重申推動國家級AI行動計畫，搭配上Alphabet強勁的業績，強化了整個科技供應鏈的看漲情緒。加權指數正呈現強勁的「高檔震盪」格局——在維持所有關鍵移動平均線之上的正向技術姿態的同時，於高檔鞏固漲幅。儘管此強勢值得注意，但市場的全部潛力仍然受到單一最大不確定因素的限制：台灣自身對美關稅地位的缺乏明朗性。

展望未來一週，隨著財報季進入高峰期，七巨頭(Magnificent Seven)中的亞馬遜(Amazon)、蘋果(Apple)、Meta和微軟(Microsoft)將陸續公布財報，市場焦點將更為集中。這些財報將是對科技股領漲漲勢可持續性的關鍵驗證。儘管美國的經濟數據依然強韌，且迄今為止82%已公布財報的公司業績超出預期，但市場的軌跡現在將取決於這些指標性企業的財測能否驗證市場當前樂觀的估值。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

本日報告聚焦檢視美國和台灣市場中規模最大、且影響力最廣的指數股票型基金(ETF)。最主要的結論是兩者動能的明顯對比。美國主要市場ETF持續展現廣泛、持續的強勢，所有關鍵指標均穩定維持在非常正向的區域。相較之下，台灣的ETF格局則揭示了顯著的分歧，整體市場疲弱以及資金明確從股息導向策略輪動的現象變得明顯。

圖表一：美國五大ETF(依資產管理規模，美元計價)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (股票代號：VOO)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (股票代號：SPY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (股票代號：IVV)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (股票代號：VTI)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (股票代號：QQQ)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲

美國頂級ETF的趨勢依然展現出堅不可撼的強勢格局。過去一週，所有五檔資產管理規模最大的ETF均維持其非常正向的趨勢。Vanguard S&P 500 ETF、SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust、iShares Core S&P 500 ETF以及Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF的穩定性，證實了整個美國股市廣泛且持續的正面動能。追蹤那斯達克最大非金融公司的Invesco QQQ Trust亦維持其非常正向的評級，預示來自科技和成長類股的領導地位持續不減。

圖表二：台灣主要ETF(依資產管理規模，新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣卓越50基金 (股票代號：0050)：當前：--，上週：▲
• 元大高股息基金 (股票代號：0056)：當前：▼，上週：--
• 國泰永續高股息 (股票代號：00878)：當前：--，上週：--
• 群益台灣精選高息 (股票代號：00919)：當前：▼，上週：--
• 富邦台灣采吉50基金 (股票代號：006208)：當前：▲，上週：--

過去一週，台灣的ETF市場已出現明顯的兩極分化。指標性的元大台灣50 (0050)趨勢從輕微正向惡化至中性，顯示該國最大型股票的上漲動能有所失落。此疲弱在以股息為重點的策略中更為明顯；元大高股息(0056)和群益台灣精選高息(00919)均從中性惡化至輕微負面。相較之下，富邦台50 (006208)則從中性改善至輕微正面，顯示投資者正變得高度選擇性。此種分歧預示著資金正從股息收益策略中撤出，並整合至特定的大型股曝險中。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Indices Hit New Records as Strong Earnings and Trade Optimism Fuel Week-End Rally

Market Confidence Rises on Solid Corporate Results and Hopes for a U.S.-EU Trade Deal, Lifting Global Sentiment

By Joe 盧, CFA | July 25, 2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. stocks concluded the week at all-time highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new records as a strong earnings season and easing trade tensions bolstered investor confidence.
• The broad U.S. rally was led by materials and industrials, while Taiwan stocks maintained a strong but range-bound pattern, supported by the global AI theme.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined, ending the week at 4.38% as fixed-income markets reflected expectations for future policy easing.
• Better-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders and resilient jobless claims data pointed to a stabilizing manufacturing sector and a robust labor market.
• Positive signals surrounding a potential U.S.-EU trade agreement and a U.S. AI investment plan reinforced the market's risk-on posture.

The market is closing the week with powerful momentum, signaling that investors are decisively favoring strong corporate fundamentals and concrete progress on trade policy over lingering uncertainties. The push by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new record highs confirms that the combination of a better-than-expected earnings season and easing geopolitical friction has unlocked significant risk appetite. This positive sentiment has been amplified by hopes that the recent U.S.-Japan trade agreement will serve as a blueprint for a similar deal with the European Union.

This wave of optimism is directly supporting the Taiwan market, where the global AI investment theme remains the central driver. President Trump’s renewed focus on a national AI action plan, coupled with strong results from Alphabet, has reinforced bullish sentiment across the technology supply chain. The Taiex is exhibiting a strong "high-end shock" pattern—consolidating gains at an elevated level while maintaining a positive technical posture above all key moving averages. While this strength is notable, the market's full potential remains capped by the single largest uncertainty: the lack of clarity on Taiwan’s own tariff status with the U.S.

Looking to the week ahead, the focus will intensify as the earnings season hits its peak with reports from Magnificent Seven members Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. These results will provide a critical test for the sustainability of the tech-led rally. While economic data in the U.S. remains resilient, and 82% of reporting companies have so far beaten earnings estimates, the market's trajectory will now hinge on whether guidance from these bellwether firms can validate the market's current optimistic valuation.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

Today's report examines the largest and most influential Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in both the U.S. and Taiwanese markets. The key takeaway is the stark contrast in momentum. Major U.S. market ETFs continue to display broad, sustained strength, with all key indicators holding steady in strongly positive territory. Conversely, the Taiwanese ETF landscape reveals a significant divergence, as general market weakness and a clear rotation away from dividend-oriented strategies become apparent.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The trend for top U.S. ETFs remains one of unshakable strength. Over the past week, all five of the largest ETFs by assets under management maintained their Strongly Positive trend. This stability in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, and the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF confirms broad and persistent positive momentum across the entire U.S. equity market. The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq, also held its Strongly Positive rating, signaling that leadership from the technology and growth sectors continues unabated.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲, Last Week: --

A clear bifurcation has emerged in the Taiwanese ETF market over the last week. The bellwether Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF saw its trend deteriorate from Mildly Positive to Neutral, indicating a loss of upward momentum for the country's largest stocks. This weakness was more pronounced in dividend-focused strategies; both the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and the Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF worsened from Neutral to Mildly Negative. In contrast, the Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF improved from Neutral to Mildly Positive, demonstrating that investors are becoming highly selective. This divergence signals a flight from dividend-yield strategies and a consolidation into specific large-cap exposures.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。