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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美歐貿易拍板，焦點轉向科技巨頭財報與Fed決策
那斯達克指數創歷史新高，但整體市場暫歇，預示在關鍵數據週前投資者趨向選擇性
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月28日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在一項具里程碑意義的美歐貿易協議提供了部分明朗性後，美國市場收盤漲跌互見，但投資者在關鍵的財報和經濟數據週前仍保持謹慎。
- 在科技類股強勢的帶動下，那斯達克指數創下今年第17個歷史新高，而道瓊工業平均指數則小幅下跌，顯示市場情緒出現明顯分歧。
- 隨著貿易不確定性的降低減緩了對美國聯準會採取激進降息的即時壓力，美國公債殖利率溫和上揚。
- 主要的市場事件是新的美歐貿易協定，該協定對多數商品設定15%的關稅，市場目前正靜待第二季GDP數據和美國聯準會的政策決議。
- 儘管與歐盟的協議降低了跨大西洋的貿易緊張局勢，但美國亦縮短了對俄羅斯關於烏克蘭問題的最後期限，同時投資者正密切關注在瑞典進行的美中貿易談判。
今日盤勢顯示，市場正處於一個轉型期。過去被視為要總體風險之一的美歐貿易爭端雖已部分解決，但立即被對特定公司表現和央行政策的關注所取代。市場漲跌互見的反應證實，週末的美歐貿易協議已大致被市場消化，而新的15%關稅，儘管優于先前威脅的30%，但對所有產業而言並非一面倒的利多。這解釋了以科技股為重的那斯達克指數和以工業股為主的道瓊工業平均指數之間的兩極分化；投資者不再根據單一的總體經濟頭條新聞進行交易，而是在那些準備從AI投資等特定催化因素中受益的產業，以及那些面臨更高進口成本新現實的產業之間進行區分。
這種動態在資產類別的流動中最為明顯。隨著貿易風險的降低重新校準了市場對利率的預期，使其遠離了短期大幅降息的可能性，美元因而大幅攀升。在台灣，市場仍處於高檔的劇烈盤整格局。加權指數正陷於兩股強大力量之間：全球AI資本支出熱潮帶來的直接利益，提振了供應商的前景；以及來自美國「232」晶片產業調查懸而未決的關稅所帶來的特定、未解決的風險。這解釋了即使在外資法人呈現淨買超的情況下，台積電(TSMC)等巨擘的股價表現平平以及大盤漲跌互見的原因。
展望未來，市場路徑將由密集的催化劑時程所決定。包括微軟(Microsoft)和蘋果(Apple)等巨擘在內的近40%標普500指數成分股將公布財報，這將對支撐市場近期漲勢的高估值構成考驗。美國聯準會週三的政策決議是另一個關鍵事件。儘管預期利率不會改變，但主席鮑爾的評論將受到嚴格審視，以尋找任何關於九月份可能降息的訊號，而此舉如今似乎日益取決於即將公布的通膨數據。對台灣市場而言，其對美關稅地位的明朗化仍然是關鍵變數；優于預期的結果可能為市場突破當前區間提供動能。
週一資產焦點：美國指數與個股趨勢
今日的分析聚焦於美國股市，過去一週，大型股指數及其領先的科技成分股持續展現穩固、穩定的趨勢。這顯示儘管小型股和半導體等其他類股仍處於觀望格局，但投資者對市場領導者的信心依然持續。
圖表一：美國股市指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表ETF：DIA)：當前：▲，上週：▲▲
- 標普500指數(代表ETF：SPY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表ETF：QQQ)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表ETF：IWM)：當前：--，上週：--
- 費城半導體指數(代表ETF：SOXQ)：當前：--，上週：--
過去一週，美國主要股市指數的趨勢保持穩固，印證了大型股持續的風險偏好情緒。標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數均維持其非常正向的趨勢評級。道瓊工業平均指數從非常正向略微趨緩至正向，但仍處於明確的正向區域。與此同時，羅素2000指數和費城半導體指數均維持中性，表明投資者的興趣尚未擴展至在先前疲弱後正在盤整的小型股或半導體領域。
圖表二：美國五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp) (股票代號：NVDA)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp) (股票代號：MSFT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 蘋果(Apple Inc) (股票代號：AAPL)：當前：--，上週：--
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc) (股票代號：AMZN)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- Meta (Meta Platforms Inc) (股票代號：META)：當前：▲，上週：▲
美國頂尖企業之間呈現出明顯的穩定性，與前一週相比趨勢並無變化。輝達(NVIDIA Corp)和微軟(Microsoft Corp)持續領漲，兩者均維持非常正向的趨勢，顯示其作為主要市場驅動力的角色。亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc)和Meta (Meta Platforms Inc)均維持其正向趨勢，突顯了穩固的動能。相較之下，蘋果(Apple Inc)則維持中性，證實相較於同類型的大型股，其持續缺乏正向動能。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Markets Digest U.S.-EU Trade Deal as Focus Shifts to Big Tech Earnings and Fed Decision
Nasdaq Hits Record High While Broader Market Pauses, Signaling Investor Selectivity Ahead of Critical Data Week
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 28, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets finished mixed as a landmark U.S.-EU trade agreement provided partial clarity, but investors remained cautious ahead of a critical week for earnings and economic data.
- The Nasdaq achieved its 17th record high of the year, driven by technology sector strength, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a slight loss, indicating a clear divergence in market sentiment.
- U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly as the reduction in trade uncertainty lessened the immediate pressure for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- The primary event was the new U.S.-EU trade pact, which sets a 15% tariff on most goods, with markets now anticipating Q2 GDP data and the Federal Reserve's policy decision.
- While the EU deal lowered transatlantic trade tensions, the U.S. also shortened the deadline for Russia regarding Ukraine, and investors are monitoring U.S.-China trade talks in Sweden.
The day's trading revealed a market in transition, where the partial resolution of one major macro risk—a U.S.-EU trade dispute—is immediately being replaced by a focus on company-specific performance and central bank policy. The market's mixed reaction confirms the weekend's trade deal was largely priced in and that a new 15% tariff, while better than the threatened 30%, is not a clear-cut victory for all sectors. This explains the bifurcation between the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the industrial-focused Dow; investors are no longer trading on a single macro headline but are differentiating between sectors poised to benefit from specific catalysts, like AI investment, and those facing the new reality of higher import costs.
This dynamic was most apparent in asset class movements. The U.S. dollar climbed significantly as reduced trade risk recalibrated interest rate expectations away from imminent, deep cuts by the Fed. In Taiwan, the market remains in a high-level, volatile consolidation pattern. The TAIEX is caught between two powerful forces: the direct benefits from the global AI capital expenditure boom, which lifts the outlook for suppliers, and the specific, unresolved risk of pending U.S. tariffs from the "232" chip industry investigation. This explains the flat performance of giants like TSMC and the mixed close, even as foreign institutions were net buyers.
Looking ahead, the path will be determined by a dense schedule of catalysts. Earnings from nearly 40% of the S&P 500, including titans like Microsoft and Apple, will test the high valuations underpinning the market's recent rally. The Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday is the other critical event. No rate change is expected, but Chair Powell's commentary will be scrutinized for any signal of a potential September cut, which now seems increasingly dependent on forthcoming inflation data. For the Taiwan market, clarity on its tariff status with the U.S. remains the key variable; a better-than-feared outcome could provide the fuel to break out of the current range.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Indices & Stock Trends
Today's analysis focuses on the U.S. equity market, where large-cap indices and their leading technology components continue to demonstrate solid, stable trends over the past week. This signals sustained investor confidence in market leaders, even as other segments like small caps and semiconductors remain in a holding pattern.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: --, Last Week: --
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: --, Last Week: --
The trends for major U.S. equity indices held firm over the last week, confirming a persistent risk-on sentiment for large-caps. Both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite maintained their Strongly Positive trend ratings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight moderation from Strongly Positive to Positive but remains in clear positive territory. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index both remained Neutral, indicating that investor appetite has not broadened to small-caps or the semiconductor space, which are consolidating after prior weakness.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
A clear stability is observed among the top U.S. companies, with no trend changes from the prior week. NVIDIA Corp and Microsoft Corp continue to lead, each maintaining a Strongly Positive trend and signaling their role as primary market drivers. Amazon.com Inc and Meta Platforms Inc both held their Positive trends, underscoring solid momentum. In contrast, Apple Inc remained Neutral, confirming a continued lack of positive momentum compared to its mega-cap peers.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。