•
【Joe’s華爾街脈動】企業財報利空，美股漲勢暫歇；台灣AI熱潮面臨關稅考驗
投資人焦點從宏觀樂觀情緒轉向企業個別財報及美國貿易政策，導致美股趨於謹慎，而台灣特定類股則維持動能，兩市格局分歧。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月29日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 受指標性企業財報令人失望的影響，美股指數從歷史高點回落，其利空蓋過了近期美歐貿易協議帶來的樂觀情緒。
- 市場出現明顯的兩極分化：美國工業和醫療保健類股因財測疲弱而下跌，與此同時，台灣的AI供應鏈，特別是印刷電路板(PCB)和電源零組件類股，則持續強勁上攻。
- 在本週稍晚聯準會政策聲明及關鍵通膨數據公布前，投資人採取防禦性佈局，推升公債價格，導致殖利率回落。
- 受股市樂觀情緒所驅動，台灣消費者信心指數出現五個月來首次回升，惟此樂觀情緒正受到全球需求放緩的挑戰。
- 迫在眉睫的事件風險加劇，市場正嚴陣以待美國即將宣布的對台關稅政策，以及鴻海(Hon Hai)一項未公開的重大訊息。
隨著市場焦點從廣泛的宏觀利多逐步轉向企業基本面與特定地緣政治風險的具體現實，投資人情緒正面臨一場關鍵考驗。這項轉變已中斷了美股屢創新高的漲勢，主因為聯合包裹服務(UPS)和聯合健康(UnitedHealth)等工業與醫療保健巨頭發布的財測令人失望，為市場氣氛潑下冷水。這也預示著下一波漲勢需要基本面的確認，而目前看來情況好壞參半。與此同時，CBOE波動率指數(VIX)的上揚，證實了在聯準會政策決議及重量級科技股財報公布前，投資人已開始為更高程度的不確定性進行定價。
台灣股市的技術面持續展現強勢。儘管台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)微幅回檔，台股的漲勢主要受到人工智慧(AI)硬體供應鏈熱潮所驅動。AI伺服器的快速升級週期，正帶動對高階印刷電路板(PCB)、銅箔基板(CCL)及高瓦數電源供應器的強勁需求，從而創造出表現亮眼的個股。此一動能受到本土法人顯著買盤的支撐，突顯出市場高度聚焦於此一特定的高成長題材。
然而，這波漲勢正籠罩在重大的外部威脅陰影之下。半導體產業局勢面臨多空交錯的訊號；一方面，輝達(Nvidia)為中國市場向台積電(TSMC)訂購30萬片H20晶片的報導屬正面消息，但另一方面，特斯拉(Tesla)已選擇三星(Samsung)為其下一代全自動輔助駕駛(FSD)晶片供應商的消息，則帶來了新的競爭挑戰。目前兩個最關鍵的潛在隱憂，仍是美國懸而未決的對台關稅決策，以及鴻海(Hon Hai)因有重大訊息待公布而暫停交易。展望未來，預期市場將維持盤整觀望格局，主要受聯準會評論及大型科技公司財報所驅動。對台灣市場而言，核心的拉鋸關鍵在於，強勁的AI題材能否抵禦關稅結果所帶來的二元性風險。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢
今日的報告聚焦於亞洲主要股市以及台灣市值最高的幾家公司。數據顯示，過去一週，該區域的主要指數普遍呈現正向趨勢。然而，深入觀察台灣最大的幾家公司，則可發現顯著的表現分歧，預示投資者在產業龍頭之間正進行高度的區別對待。
圖表一：區域股市指數(美元計價)
- 台灣(代表性ETF：EWT)：當前：▲▲，一週前：▲▲
- 香港(代表性ETF：EWH)：當前：▲▲，一週前：▲▲
- 新加坡(代表性ETF：EWS)：當前：▲▲，一週前：▲▲
- 日本(代表性ETF：EWJ)：當前：▲，一週前：--
- 南韓(代表性ETF：EWY)：當前：▲▲，一週前：▲▲
過去一週，亞洲主要股市展現出顯著的強勢與穩定性。台灣、香港、新加坡和南韓均維持其非常正向的趨勢，證實了投資者對該地區普遍抱持信心。最顯著的變化發生在日本，其趨勢從中性改善至輕微正面，預示上漲動能重燃。此種橫跨主要指數的一致強勢，指向亞洲市場凝聚了正面的市場情緒。
圖表二：台灣五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司(股票代號：2330)：當前：--，一週前：--
- 鴻海精密工業股份有限公司(股票代號：2317)：當前：--，一週前：▼
- 聯發科技股份有限公司(股票代號：2454)：當前：▼▼，一週前：--
- 廣達電腦股份有限公司(股票代號：2382)：當前：▼▼，一週前：▼▼
- 台達電子工業股份有限公司(股票代號：2308)：當前：▲▲，一週前：▲▲
台灣的龍頭企業之間已出現明顯的表現分歧。台達電子(Delta Electronics Inc)持續展現市場領導地位，維持其非常正向的趨勢。鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd)的趨勢有所改善，從輕微負面穩定至中性。形成鮮明對比的是，其他公司則顯現顯著的疲弱。聯發科(MediaTek Inc)的趨勢從中性急劇惡化至非常負面，而廣達電腦(Quanta Computer Inc)則持續深陷於非常負面的趨勢中。市場指標股台積電(TSMC)則維持其中性評級，顯示動能暫歇。此種巨大的表現差距突顯出投資者正變得高度選擇性：獎勵表現優異者，同時懲罰落後者。
👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。
📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。
📰追蹤此部落格。
💬LINE好友。
➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Equities Pause at Highs as Earnings Disappoint; Taiwan's AI Rally Faces Tariff Headwinds
Investor focus shifts from macro optimism to company-specific results and looming U.S. trade policy, creating a divergence between U.S. caution and Taiwan's sector-specific momentum.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 07/29/2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. indices retreated from record highs as disappointing corporate earnings from market bellwethers overshadowed recent optimism from the U.S.-EU trade agreement.
- A clear bifurcation emerged as U.S. industrials and healthcare stocks fell on weak guidance, while Taiwan's AI supply chain, particularly in PCBs and power components, continued its strong advance.
- U.S. Treasury yields eased as investors positioned defensively ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and key inflation data later this week.
- Taiwan's consumer confidence saw its first rise in five months, driven by stock market optimism, though this sentiment is challenged by slowing global demand.
- Looming event risk has intensified, with the market bracing for the U.S. announcement on Taiwanese tariffs and a major, undisclosed announcement from Hon Hai.
Investor sentiment is undergoing a critical test as the market's focus pivots from broad macro tailwinds to the granular reality of corporate fundamentals and specific geopolitical risks. This transition halted the record-setting run in the U.S., where disappointing forecasts from industrial and healthcare giants like UPS and UnitedHealth injected a dose of realism. This signals that the next leg of the rally requires fundamental confirmation, which is proving uneven. The corresponding rise in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) confirms that investors are now pricing in a higher degree of uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and heavyweight tech earnings.
The Taiwanese market continues to exhibit technical strength. Despite a slight dip in TSMC's ADR, the local market is fueled by a frenzy in the AI hardware supply chain. The rapid upgrade cycle for AI servers is driving intense demand for high-end PCBs, copper-clad laminates (CCL), and high-wattage power supplies, creating standout performers. This momentum is supported by significant buying from domestic institutions, underscoring a market fixated on a specific, high-growth theme.
However, this rally is operating under the shadow of significant external threats. The semiconductor landscape faces conflicting crosscurrents; while reports of Nvidia ordering 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC for the China market are positive, the confirmation that Tesla has chosen Samsung for its next-generation FSD chip introduces a new competitive challenge. The two most critical overhangs remain the pending U.S. decision on tariffs against Taiwan and the trading suspension of Hon Hai pending a major announcement. Looking ahead, expect markets to remain in a holding pattern, driven by Fed commentary and big tech earnings. The core tension for Taiwan is whether the potent AI theme can withstand the binary risk of the tariff outcome.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today's report examines key Asian equity markets and the top market capitalization companies in Taiwan. The data reveals a broadly positive trend across the region's main indices over the past week. However, a closer look at Taiwan's largest companies shows a significant performance divergence, signaling that investors are differentiating heavily between industry leaders.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Major Asian equity markets demonstrated notable strength and stability over the past week. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea all maintained their Strongly Positive trends, confirming broad investor confidence in the region. The most significant change was in Japan, where the trend improved from Neutral to Mildly Positive, signaling a renewal of upward momentum. This consistent strength across key indices points to a cohesive positive sentiment in the Asian markets.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: --
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A clear performance split has emerged among Taiwan's leading companies. Delta Electronics Inc continues to show market leadership, maintaining its Strongly Positive trend. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd's trend improved, stabilizing from Mildly Negative to Neutral. In stark contrast, significant weakness is evident elsewhere. MediaTek Inc's trend deteriorated sharply from Neutral to Strongly Negative, and Quanta Computer Inc remained mired in a Strongly Negative trend. The market bellwether, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, held its Neutral rating, indicating a pause in momentum. This wide gap in performance highlights that investors are becoming highly selective, rewarding outperformers while punishing laggards.
👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.
📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.
➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。