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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】Fed鷹派按兵不動，GDP數據存疑，全球市場受壓
美元走強與美國潛在需求疲軟，加劇台股逆風及資金外流
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月30日 美東時間
摘要
- 美國聯準會的鷹派政策立場加劇了投資者對潛在經濟活動可能放緩的擔憂，導致全球市場情緒惡化。
- 美國股市基準指數走弱。在一份具誤導性的GDP報告掩蓋了自2022年以來最疲弱的民間內需後，以科技股為主的指數呈現顯著的負向動能。
- 美國聯準會將未來利率決策與關稅相關的通膨明確掛鉤，此舉加深了政策不確定性，並助長了美元的顯著走強。
- 美國第二季3%的GDP成長反映了貿易扭曲。核心指標證實，貿易摩擦正積極減緩實體經濟的發展。
- 美元走強及已獲確認的美國需求放緩，直接對台灣市場構成壓力，導致大量外資流出。
鷹派的美國聯準會，加上美國國內經濟放緩的實質證據，為風險性資產創造了一個艱鉅的環境。美國聯準會維持利率不變的決定在預期之內，主席鮑爾的評論才是關鍵驅動因素。他消除了市場對九月降息的確定性。透過將未來的貨幣政策與貿易關稅的通膨影響明確掛鉤，美國聯準會將地緣政治風險提升為其決策的直接考量因素。現在，市場正以高度關注等待傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會。
一份具誤導性的美國第二季GDP報告加劇了此一政策的不確定性。表面上3%的成長率看似強勁，但此數字是因關稅相關的進口提前拉貨效應消退所導致的統計異常現象。關鍵數據點在於「對國內民間購買者的最終銷售」成長率，這項指標是衡量潛在需求的純粹指標。該數據放緩至僅1.1%，為自2022年以來的最低水準。這項明確的訊號顯示，貿易政策摩擦現正實質抑制美國消費者與企業的活動。
就台灣而言，美國近期情勢的發展，正解釋了加權指數(TAIEX)趨勢轉弱，並跌破關鍵短期移動平均線的原因。聯準會的鷹派立場，以及隨之而來的美元走強，引發了高達新台幣165億元的外資撤離。這對台積電(TSMC)和鴻海(Hon Hai)等市場權值股造成沉重壓力，並導致市場技術指標惡化。此一外部壓力恰逢國內經濟指標放緩，使台灣的出口導向型經濟處於脆弱的處境。
展望未來，市場已進入一段盤整期。未來的路徑將由兩大主要催化因素決定。首先是美國貿易行動的明朗化，特別是8月1日的關稅措施以及針對半導體的「232調查報告」。其次是美國聯準會後續的政策訊號。在此之前，投資者的焦點將放在防禦性佈局和特定的國內題材上，例如已宣布的軍用無人機採購案，這類題材較能提供相對不受總體經濟逆風影響的保護。
週三資產焦點：美國經濟指標與債券市場趨勢
最新數據顯示，美國經濟基本面正出現全面性的惡化跡象。通膨和消費者信心的關鍵指標轉為負向。此一疲弱的前景影響了美國公債市場。短期債務保持穩定，長天期公債則持續呈現強烈的負向趨勢。
圖表一：美國經濟指標
- 投資期間展望： 當前：▼▼，一週前：▼
- 企業獲利： 當前：▲，一週前：▲
- 通膨： 當前：▼，一週前：▲
- 資金流向(美元)： 當前：--，一週前：▼▼
- 消費者信心： 當前：▼，一週前：▲
經濟情緒已轉弱。投資期間展望、通膨及消費者信心的前景均同步惡化。然而，企業獲利的正向趨勢仍維持穩固的正向趨勢。這種分歧對未來的成長構成了風險。資金流向美元的趨勢有所改善，從強烈負向轉為中性。這顯示在更廣泛的不確定性中，資金可能流向美元避險。
圖表二：美國公債(以美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY)： 當前：--，一週前：--
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI)： 當前：--，一週前：▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF)： 當前：▼，一週前：--
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH)： 當前：▼▼，一週前：▼▼
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT)： 當前：▼▼，一週前：▼▼
代表短期債務的1-3年期美國公債，仍維持穩定且中性的趨勢。中期債券的趨勢有所惡化。3-7年期美國公債從正向轉弱為中性。7-10年期美國公債轉為負向。殖利率曲線的長端仍然承受巨大壓力，價格下跌導致殖利率上升。10-20年期與20年期以上美國公債均維持其強烈的負向趨勢。這項訊號顯示了投資者對長期存續期間風險的持續擔憂。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Fed's Hawkish Hold and Controversial GDP Data Pressure Global Markets
A Stronger Dollar and Weak U.S. Underlying Demand Intensify TAIEX Headwinds and Capital Outflows
By Joe 盧, CFA | 07/30/2025
Executive Summary
- Global market sentiment deteriorated as the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish policy amplified investor concerns over weakening underlying economic activity.
- U.S. equity benchmarks weakened. Technology-focused indices showed pronounced negative momentum after a recent GDP report masked the weakest private domestic demand since 2022.
- The Fed's explicit linkage of future rate decisions to tariff-related inflation entrenched policy uncertainty and fueled a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
- U.S. Q2 GDP growth of 3% reflects trade distortions. Core metrics confirm trade friction actively slows the real economy.
- A stronger dollar and a confirmed slowdown in U.S. demand directly pressured Taiwanese markets, driving significant foreign capital outflows.
A hawkish Federal Reserve and tangible evidence of a slowing U.S. domestic economy create a challenging environment for risk assets. The Fed's decision to hold rates was expected. Chairman Powell’s commentary was the key driver. He removed the certainty of a September rate cut. By explicitly tying future monetary policy to the inflationary impact of trade tariffs, the Fed elevated geopolitical risk into a direct input for its decision-making. Markets now await the Jackson Hole symposium with heightened attention.
This policy uncertainty was compounded by a controversial U.S. Q2 GDP report. The headline 3% growth appears robust. The figure is a statistical anomaly from an unwind of tariff-related import front-running. The critical data point is the growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers, a pure measure of underlying demand. This slowed to 1.1%, its weakest reading since 2022. This definitive signal shows trade policy friction is now actively dampening U.S. consumer and business activity.
For Taiwan, these U.S. developments explain the negative shift in the TAIEX trend and its breach of key short-term moving averages. The Fed's stance and resulting U.S. dollar strength triggered a substantial foreign capital outflow of NT$16.5 billion. This weighed heavily on market heavyweights like TSMC and Hon Hai and caused a technical deterioration in market indicators. This external pressure coincides with slowing domestic economic indicators, placing Taiwan's export-oriented economy in a vulnerable position.
Looking ahead, the market has entered a period of consolidation. The path forward will be dictated by two main catalysts. First is clarity on U.S. trade actions, specifically the August 1 tariffs and the "232 investigation" into semiconductors. Second are the subsequent policy signals from the Federal Reserve. Until then, investor focus will be on defensive positioning and specific domestic themes, such as the announced military drone procurement, which offer insulation from broader macroeconomic headwinds.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic Indicators & Bond Market Trends
The latest data signal broad-based deterioration in U.S. economic fundamentals. Key indicators for inflation and consumer strength turned negative. This weakening outlook affects the U.S. Treasury market. Short-term debt remains stable. Long-duration bonds continue to exhibit a strongly negative trend.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Inflation: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
Economic sentiment has weakened. The outlook for Investment Duration, Inflation, and Consumer Strength deteriorated. The positive trend for Corporate Earnings held firm. This contrast presents a risk to forward-looking growth. The trend for Currency Flow into the USD improved, shifting from strongly negative to neutral. This suggests a potential flight to the dollar amid broader uncertainty.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: --
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Short-term debt, represented by 1-3 Year US Treasuries, maintained a stable, neutral trend. The trend for intermediate-term bonds deteriorated. 3-7 Year US Treasuries weakened from positive to neutral. 7-10 Year US Treasuries turned negative. The long end of the curve remains under significant pressure. Both 10-20 Year US Treasuries and 20+ Year US Treasuries maintained their strongly negative trends. This signals persistent investor concern over long-term duration risk.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。