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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】AI獨強難撐大盤，政策風險構成壓力
科技股利多不敵政策利空，美股急轉直下，靜待關鍵非農就業數據
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月31日 美東時間
摘要
- 由於貿易政策的不確定性及特定產業的不利因素掩蓋了強勁的企業財報，美國市場反轉早盤漲勢，收盤走低。
- AI相關科技股因財報利多而走強，而對貿易和監管敏感的製藥、原物料等類股則下跌。
- 在明日關鍵的非農就業報告公布前，固定收益投資者採取防禦姿態，美國公債殖利率維持穩定。
- 低迷的美國消費者支出與穩固的核心通膨數據，證實了複雜的經濟形勢，使得即將公布的勞動市場數據對聯準會的政策訊號至關重要。
- 川普政府宣布的關稅措施，包括對印度加徵新的25%關稅以及與台灣尚未解決的協議，加劇了全球貿易摩擦。
當前市場的決定性訊號，在於科技股基本面與持續的總體經濟不確定性之間的拉鋸。今日的美股盤勢即是此一動態的例證。在Meta和微軟(Microsoft)等AI領導企業強勁財報的帶動下，早盤的漲勢被完全抹去。此盤中逆轉顯示，儘管AI投資論述依然完整——這對台灣供應鏈是直接利多，並反映在AI相關財報公布後的盤後正面反應上——但其力道仍不足以壓過更廣泛的市場風險。
負面情緒直接源於難以預測的美國政策。川普總統對藥品定價的施壓，以及突然將精煉銅排除在計畫中的關稅之外，引發了這些類股的拋售，提醒投資者頭條新聞風險的存在。隨著8月1日的貿易協議最終期限逼近，台灣方面缺乏最終協議，與此同時美國卻對印度加徵新的25%關稅，這為本地市場帶來了具體而迫切的風險。這種由政策驅動的波動性，是抑制股市上漲空間的主要力量。
所有市場焦點現已轉向美國的非農就業報告。聯準會主席鮑爾已明確將勞動市場指定為央行的核心觀察點。昨日公布的數據顯示，消費低迷，核心通膨走強，讓聯準會在沒有明確經濟疲弱訊號的情況下，幾乎沒有政策操作空間。一份疲弱的就業數據將重燃市場對九月降息的預期（目前市場預期機率為40%）。反之，一份強勁的報告將證實聯準會的謹慎立場，可能推升公債殖利率並抑制風險性資產。
就台股加權指數(TAIEX)而言，前景是持續的高檔盤整格局。在AI、台積電(TSMC)和台塑(Formosa Plastics)集團等基本面優勢的支撐下，該指數的技術面依然強勁。然而，美股尾盤的疲軟以及懸而未決的關稅局勢，構成了顯著的制約因素。預期市場交易將由美國就業報告前的倉位調整主導，並持續偏好績效優異、資產負債表強健的大型權值股。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
今日的訊號指向資金正輪動至能源與數位資產，同時撤出金屬與農業類商品。與此同時，全球主要貨幣兌新台幣普遍走弱，而美元則顯現出穩定跡象。這表明在實體資產中存在選擇性的風險偏好，以及新台幣的相對強勢。
圖表一：貨幣 (以新台幣計價)
- 美元 (貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 歐元 (貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 日圓 (貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 人民幣 (貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 加幣 (貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
美元、人民幣和加幣觀察到正向轉變，其趨勢從負向轉為中性。歐元和日圓的趨勢則穩定維持在負向區間。此格局顯示，過去一週新台幣兌其主要貿易夥伴的貨幣出現了溫和而廣泛的升值。
圖表二：大宗商品 (以美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
- 農業類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
- 工業金屬 (代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 貴金屬 (代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 數位資產 (代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
急劇的輪動定義了大宗商品市場的格局。能源類大宗商品的趨勢從負向轉強為正向，而數位資產則維持其強勢正向的狀態。相較之下，農業類大宗商品的趨勢惡化至強烈負向。工業金屬和貴金屬的趨勢同樣惡化，分別從正向與強勢正向轉為中性。此訊號顯示該資產類別內部出現了明確的資金輪動。
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
AI Strength Fails to Lift Broader Market Amid Policy Risk
U.S. Equities Reverse Sharply Despite Tech Strength; TAIEX Consolidates at Highs Ahead of Key U.S. Payrolls Data
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 31, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets reversed early gains to close lower as trade policy uncertainty and sector-specific headwinds overshadowed strong corporate earnings.
- AI-related technology stocks showed strength on positive results, while sectors sensitive to trade and regulation, such as pharmaceuticals and materials, declined.
- U.S. Treasury yields remained stable as fixed-income investors adopted a defensive posture ahead of tomorrow's critical nonfarm payrolls report.
- Subdued U.S. consumer spending and firm core inflation figures confirm a complex economic picture, placing heightened importance on upcoming labor market data for Fed policy signals.
- The Trump administration's tariff announcements, including a new 25% levy on India and unresolved deals for Taiwan, intensify global trade friction.
The defining market signal is the conflict between technology-driven fundamentals and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. Today's U.S. session was an example of this dynamic. An initial rally, fueled by strong earnings from AI leaders such as Meta and Microsoft, was erased. This intraday reversal indicates the AI investment thesis is intact, a direct tailwind for Taiwan's supply chain, reflected in the positive after-hours reaction to AI-related earnings. This strength was not sufficient to override broader market risks.
The negative sentiment stems directly from unpredictable U.S. policy. President Trump's pressure on pharmaceutical pricing and the abrupt exemption of refined copper from planned tariffs sparked selloffs in those sectors, reminding investors of headline risk. With the August 1st deadline for trade deals imminent, the lack of a finalized agreement for Taiwan, contrasted with new 25% tariffs on India, creates a specific and acute risk for the local market. This policy-driven volatility is the primary force capping equity upside.
All focus now shifts to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Fed Chair Powell has explicitly designated the labor market as the central bank's key watchpoint. Yesterday's data on subdued consumption and firming core inflation gives the Fed little room to maneuver without a clear signal of economic weakness. A weak payrolls figure revives expectations for a September rate cut, which markets currently price at a 40% probability. Conversely, a strong report validates the Fed's cautious stance, likely firming bond yields and restraining risk assets.
For the TAIEX, the outlook is for continued high-level consolidation. The index remains technically strong, supported by a fundamental strength in the AI, TSMC, and Formosa Plastics ecosystems. The U.S. market's late-day weakness and the unresolved tariff situation act as significant constraints. Expect trading to be dominated by positioning ahead of the U.S. jobs report, with a continued preference for high-performing, large-capitalization stocks with strong balance sheets.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends
Today's signals point to capital rotating into energy and digital assets while exiting metals and agriculture. Concurrently, major global currencies show a broad weakening against the New Taiwan Dollar, with the U.S. Dollar showing signs of stabilization. This indicates a selective risk appetite in real assets and a relative strengthening of the TWD.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
A positive shift was observed for the U.S. Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar, with their trends moving from negative to neutral. The trends for the Euro and Japanese Yen were stable, holding in negative territory. This pattern demonstrates a modest, broad-based strengthening of the TWD against its key trading partners over the past week.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A sharp rotation defines the commodity markets. The trend for Energy Commodities strengthened from negative to positive, while Digital Assets maintained their strongly positive status. In contrast, the trend for Agricultural Commodities deteriorated to strongly negative. Both Industrial Metals and Precious Metals also saw their trends deteriorate, shifting from positive and strongly positive, respectively, to neutral. This signals a distinct rotation of capital within the asset class.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。