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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】降息預期激勵美股，台灣市場則受關稅逆風籠罩
美國就業數據疲弱，點燃聯準會寬鬆押注；20%關稅與待決的232條款調查，預示台股將進入謹慎盤整期
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月5日 美東時間
摘要
- 美國股市因經濟壞消息而上漲，台灣股市則面臨美國新關稅的直接壓力。
- 美國市場在科技股和小型股的帶領下急劇反彈；而台股加權指數(TAIEX)的市場情緒則受到地緣政治風險的制約，指數守在月線支撐之上。
- 美國公債殖利率跌至三個月低點。在美國勞動市場放緩後，債券市場已反應聯準會九月降息的機率高達90%。
- 美國七月份僅新增73,000個就業機會，且前幾個月數據遭大幅下修，證實了勞動市場正在降溫，並強化了實施貨幣寬鬆的理由。
- 美國對台灣加徵初步20%的互惠關稅，是影響本地市場的主導因素。即將到來的半導體232條款調查，是您投資組合面臨的下一個主要風險事件。
兩種截然不同的敘事正在交織形塑全球市場情緒。在美國，經濟數據放緩被市場解讀為聯準會將可能轉向貨幣寬鬆政策的催化劑，此一預期支撐了美國股市在本週初走高。然而對台灣而言，此一總體經濟背景，卻被直接的地緣政治逆風所籠罩。美國新加徵的20%關稅帶來了實質的外部風險。台股加權指數(TAIEX)的走勢很可能將脫鉤於美股的強弱，進入一段盤整期。
推動美股上漲的主要催化因素，來自上週五疲弱的就業報告。淨增就業僅73,000人，加上前兩個月數據合計下修達258,000人，預示著美國勞動市場正在減速。作為回應，債券市場已充分反應聯準會政策正在轉向寬鬆的預期。10年期公債殖利率降至4.20%，而期貨市場則顯示九月降息的機率高達90%。這激勵了美股的上漲，特別是對利率敏感的科技股和小型股。
台股加權指數(TAIEX)則面臨另一組壓力。儘管指數在上週五守住了月線，但技術指標顯示上漲動能已失，外資也轉為淨賣出。儘管20%的關稅稅率被定位為暫時性的，但已為台灣出口商構成實質不確定性。當前投資者情緒緊盯政府的後續談判進展，以及美方即將針對半導體產業啟動的232條款調查緊密相連。這些關鍵變數將深刻影響台股後走向，值得持續密切關注。
展望未來，台股加權指數(TAIEX)的走勢將取決於此地緣政治的後續影響。需要守住的關鍵技術水位是月線，一旦跌破，將預示著更大幅度的修正。這樣的環境要求投資人審視自身投資組合的佈局。儘管大盤的上漲空間受限，但在擁有獨立催化因素的產業中仍存在機會，例如AI與機器人領域。在這些貿易風險解決之前，市場可能會維持盤整格局。
週一資產焦點：美國股市指數與頂尖美企趨勢
今日的分析顯示，美國市場各個類股之間表現分歧。以科技股為主的大型股指數維持強勁動能，而涵蓋範圍更廣的市場指數及小型股指標則正在轉弱。此一模式也同時反映在頂尖美國企業中，部分科技龍頭企業持續展現強勁實力，而其他公司則顯露疲態。
圖表一：美國股市指數 (以美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數 (代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 標準普爾500指數 (代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數 (代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 羅素2000指數 (代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▼, 一週前: –
- 費城半導體指數 (代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: --, 一週前: --
美國主要指數呈現不同趨勢。標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數均維持其強勢正向趨勢，顯示大型科技股的力道持續。道瓊工業平均指數的趨勢則惡化至中性。羅素2000指數惡化至負向，預示著工業和小型股的疲軟。費城半導體指數則維持其中性趨勢，考量其作為科技供應鏈領先指標的重要性，這是一個需要留意的特定風險。
圖表二：美國前五大企業 (以美元計價)
- 輝達 (NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 微軟 (Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 蘋果 (Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: –
- 亞馬遜 (Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
- Meta Platforms (META): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
頂尖美企之間趨勢分歧明顯。輝達(NVIDIA)、微軟(Microsoft)和Meta Platforms均維持其強勢正向趨勢，證實了其在特定科技領域的領導地位。相較之下，蘋果(Apple)的趨勢惡化至強烈負向，亞馬遜(Amazon.com)的趨勢也惡化至負向。此一表現差距顯示，投資者正在對超大型科技股進行區別對待。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Markets Advance on Rate Cut Outlook; Taiwan Faces Tariff Headwinds
Weak U.S. jobs data fuels Fed easing bets. A 20% tariff and pending Section 232 decision dictate a cautious, consolidative phase for the TAIEX.
By Joe 盧, CFA | August 5, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities surged on weak economic news. Taiwanese stocks face direct pressure from new U.S. tariffs.
- A sharp rebound in U.S. markets was led by technology and small-caps. TAIEX sentiment is constrained by geopolitical risk, holding just above its monthly support line.
- U.S. Treasury yields fell to a three-month low. Bond markets priced in a 90% probability of a September Fed rate cut following a slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
- The addition of only 73,000 U.S. jobs in July, with significant downward revisions, confirms a cooling labor market and strengthens the case for monetary easing.
- The U.S. imposition of a preliminary 20% reciprocal tariff on Taiwan is the dominant factor for local markets. The upcoming Section 232 semiconductor decision represents the next major risk event for your portfolio.
Two distinct narratives are shaping global markets. In the U.S., slowing economic data is interpreted as a catalyst for monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. This dynamic propelled U.S. equities higher to start the week. For Taiwan, this macro backdrop is overshadowed by direct geopolitical headwinds. The imposition of a new 20% U.S. tariff creates a tangible risk factor. The TAIEX will likely enter a period of consolidation, independent of U.S. market strength.
The catalyst for the U.S. rally was Friday's weak jobs report. A net gain of only 73,000 jobs and downward revisions of 258,000 for the prior two months signal a deceleration in the American labor market. In response, the bond market priced in Fed accommodation. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.20% and futures indicate a 90% probability of a rate cut in September. This fueled a rally in U.S. equities, particularly in rate-sensitive technology and small-cap stocks.
The TAIEX operates under a different set of pressures. The index held the monthly line last Friday. Technical indicators signal a loss of upward momentum and foreign capital turned to net selling. The 20% tariff rate, although described as temporary, introduces uncertainty for exporters. Investor sentiment is now linked to government negotiations and the forthcoming Section 232 investigation targeting the semiconductor industry. These are the key variables you must monitor.
Looking ahead, the TAIEX will be defined by this geopolitical overhang. The key technical level to defend is the monthly moving average. A break below it would indicate a more significant correction. This environment requires you to question your portfolio's positioning. While broad market upside is capped, opportunities exist in sectors with independent catalysts, such as AI and robotics. The market will likely remain in a consolidation pattern until these trade risks are resolved.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity Indices & Top U.S. Company Trends
Today's analysis shows varied performance across U.S. market segments. Large-cap, tech-heavy indices maintain strong momentum, while broader market and small-cap indicators are weakening. This pattern is reflected within the top U.S. companies, where select tech leaders continue to show strength while others show weakness.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: --, Last Week: --
The major U.S. indices show different trends. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite both maintained their strongly positive trends, indicating sustained strength in large-cap technology. The trend for the Dow Jones Industrial Average deteriorated to neutral. The Russell 2000 Index deteriorated to negative, signaling weakness in industrial and small-cap names. The PHLX Semiconductor Index held its neutral trend, a specific risk to watch given its importance as a leading indicator for technology supply chains.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: --
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Different trends are evident among the top U.S. companies. NVIDIA Corp, Microsoft Corp, and Meta Platforms Inc all maintained their strongly positive trends, confirming leadership in specific tech segments. In contrast, the trend for Apple Inc deteriorated to strongly negative. Amazon.com Inc's trend deteriorated to negative. This performance gap signals investors are discriminating within mega-cap technology.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。