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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】停滯性通膨警訊浮現，美股漲勢停滯
服務業數據疲弱與關稅風險逼近，削弱降息樂觀情緒，資金轉入防禦性輪動
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月5日 美東時間
摘要
- 由於疲弱的美國經濟數據蓋過了對聯準會降息的樂觀預期，風險趨避的基調主導了市場。
- 美國大型股反轉早盤漲勢收低；而在台灣，資金從主要科技權值股輪動至機器人、軍工等防禦性類股。
- 美國公債殖利率在三個月低點附近持平，反映在經濟放緩疑慮加劇下，市場對避險資產的持續性需求。
- 美國服務業ISM報告顯示成長近乎停滯，且價格壓力為2022年以來最高，加劇了上週疲弱就業報告所引發的擔憂。
- 美國政府預告即將對半導體和製藥業加徵關稅，為台灣關鍵的出口產業帶來直接的不確定性。
先前由疲弱數據所引發的降息預期，如今正受到美國經濟中停滯性通膨跡象的挑戰。昨日公布的美國服務業ISM報告顯示成長放緩、價格壓力上升，此趨勢與上週疲弱的非農就業報告所透露的訊息相互呼應，並促使標普500指數抹去早盤的漲幅。此一情勢發展，直接削弱了建立在貨幣政策將順利走向寬鬆路徑上的股市多頭論述。
這些數據為聯準會及投資者帶來了兩難。市場定價已鞏固在九月降息的預期上，機率接近90%。然而，在經濟放緩的同時，持續的價格壓力使聯準會的任務變得複雜，並限制了其採取持續、積極寬鬆週期的可能性。今日美國市場出現了分歧的走勢，大型股為主的標普500指數下跌，而小型股羅素2000指數卻上揚，這預示著投資者正在重新衡量風險，從受全球曝險的超大型權值股中移出。
對台灣而言，當前的全球背景正轉化為一波明顯的防禦性輪動。昨日台股加權指數(TAIEX)盤勢顯示，資金正從台積電(TSMC)和聯發科(MediaTek)等指標性的電子權值股，流向機器人、軍工和生物科技等題材性類股。在美國政府明確威脅將對半導體加徵關稅之前，此一行動是合乎邏輯的避險操作。儘管外資法人在指數拉回時仍持續淨買入，但此輪動格局表明，近期的謹慎態度是市場的主導情緒。
展望未來，台股加權指數(TAIEX)正處於高檔盤整格局，受聯準會預期降息的支撐和潛在關稅威脅的雙重影響。本週上市櫃公司七月營收報告的公布，將是國內市場的關鍵驅動因素，特別是對AI供應鏈而言。當前的市況促使投資者去思考，是否應將選股策略置於廣泛的市場曝險之上。從資金流向來看，市場焦點似乎集中在那些擁有實證獲利能力、並與AI基礎設施、工業自動化和材料升級等長期趨勢一致的企業。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣股市趨勢
今日的分析顯示，亞洲主要股市普遍出現同步走強的現象。區域指數展現出持續的正向動能，此趨勢也同樣反映在台灣頂尖企業的正向轉變上，多家公司的趨勢已從中性或負向轉入正向區間。
圖表一：區域股市指數 (以美元計價)
- 台灣 (代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 香港 (代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 新加坡 (代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 日本 (代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 南韓 (代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
區域股市的情緒明確偏向樂觀。台灣、香港、新加坡和南韓的趨勢穩定維持在強勢正向的水平。日本市場的訊號增強，從正向轉為強勢正向，顯示投資者信心正在加速。整體格局呈現一致且廣泛的強勢。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業 (以新台幣計價)
- 台積電 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: –
- 鴻海精密 (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, 2317): 當前: ▲, 一週前: –
- 聯發科 (MediaTek Inc, 2454): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc, 2382): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼▼
- 台達電 (Delta Electronics Inc, 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
台灣龍頭企業的趨勢輪廓在過去一週有所改善。台積電和鴻海精密雙雙出現正向轉變，分別從中性狀態轉為強勢正向和正向。廣達電腦則出現了顯著的趨ses反轉，從強烈負向轉為正向。聯發科的負向動能有所緩和。台達電則維持強勢正向的趨勢，是其持續領導地位的象徵。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Stagflation Signals Stall U.S. Markets
Weak Services Data and Impending Tariff Risks Undermine Rate Cut Optimism, Pushing Capital into Defensive Rotations
By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/05/2025
Executive Summary
- A risk-off tone dominated as weak U.S. economic data outweighed optimism for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- U.S. large-cap equities reversed early gains to close lower, while in Taiwan, capital rotated from major tech names into defensive sectors like robotics and military.
- U.S. Treasury yields remained flat near three-month lows, reflecting persistent demand for safety amid growing economic slowdown concerns.
- The U.S. Services ISM report signaled a near-standstill in growth and the highest price pressures since 2022, compounding fears from last week's soft payrolls report.
- The U.S. administration signaled impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, creating direct uncertainty for Taiwan's key export sector.
Weak data fueling rate cut expectations is now challenged by tangible signs of stagflation in the U.S. economy. Yesterday's U.S. Services ISM report shows slowing growth and rising price pressures. This confirms the trend from last week's weak nonfarm payrolls report and prompted the S&P 500 to erase early gains. This development directly undermines the bullish case for equities, a case built on a smooth path to monetary easing.
The data presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve and for investors. Market pricing has solidified around a September rate cut, with probabilities near 90%. Persistent price pressures within a slowing economy complicate the Fed's mandate and limit the potential for a sustained, aggressive easing cycle. Contrasting movements appeared in the U.S. market today. The large-cap S&P 500 fell while the small-cap Russell 2000 advanced, signaling investors are recalibrating risk away from globally-exposed mega-caps.
For Taiwan, this global backdrop translates into a distinct defensive rotation. Yesterday's TAIEX session showed capital flowing out of bellwether electronics like TSMC and MediaTek into thematic plays such as robotics, military, and biotechnology. This action is a logical de-risking maneuver ahead of the U.S. administration’s explicit threat of semiconductor tariffs. While foreign institutional investors continue as net buyers on dips, the rotation indicates near-term caution is the dominant sentiment.
Looking ahead, the TAIEX is positioned in a high-level consolidation pattern, pinned between the support of expected Fed cuts and the resistance of potential tariffs. The release of July revenue reports from listed companies will be a critical domestic driver this week, particularly for the AI supply chain. The current conditions should prompt you to question if stock selection should be prioritized over broad market exposure. Capital flows suggest a focus on firms with demonstrated earnings power, aligned with durable themes like AI infrastructure, industrial automation, and material upgrades.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today's analysis reveals broad-based, synchronized strength across key Asian equity markets. Regional indices demonstrate sustained positive momentum. This trend is mirrored by a positive shift in Taiwan's top companies, as several names moved from neutral or negative stances into positive territory.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Regional equity sentiment is decisively positive. The trends for Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea are stable at a strongly positive level. The signal for Japan strengthened, moving from positive to strongly positive and indicating accelerating investor confidence in the market. The overall condition is consistent and broad strength across the region.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The trend profile for leading Taiwanese firms improved over the past week. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd both showed positive shifts, moving from a neutral status to strongly positive and positive, respectively. A significant trend reversal occurred in Quanta Computer Inc, which went from strongly negative to positive. The negative momentum for MediaTek Inc eased. Delta Electronics Inc maintained a strongly positive trend, a sign of sustained leadership.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。