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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】半導體新關稅威脅浮現，引發全產業波動
地緣政治風險直指台灣核心產業，為強勁的AI趨勢蒙上陰影，並為市場大幅波動創造條件
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月6日 美東時間
摘要
- 市場面臨多空力量拉鋸：AI的看漲動能與聯準會的降息預期，正遭逢美台貿易緊張局勢的升級。
- 美國指數在大型科技股的帶動下上漲，但擬議的半導體關稅與超微(AMD)疲弱的前景，預示著晶片產業及台股加權指數(TAIEX)面臨直接風險。
- 疲弱的美國非農就業數據強化了市場對聯準會降息的預期，為風險偏好提供了支撐。
- 台灣央行釋出國內經濟穩定的訊號，但由於關稅的不確定性，下半年經濟放緩的風險正在增加。
- 最主要的風險因素是美國新的關稅威脅。報導中對台積電(TSMC)的要求，為台灣創造了關鍵的談判挑戰。
地緣政治風險是今日的焦點。川普總統宣布將加徵半導體關稅，加上報導中對台積電(TSMC)提出的要求，為市場帶來了嚴峻的逆風，挑戰了當前由AI驅動的主流論述。此一事態發展直接衝擊台灣經濟的核心以及其最重要的股票指數，為高檔盤整和劇烈波動創造了條件。投資者應從此一外部壓力加劇的視角，來審視任何近期的市場漲勢。
昨日的美股盤勢呈現多空交錯的訊號。那斯達克(NASDAQ)和標普500(S&P 500)指數雖然上漲，但漲勢狹隘，僅由少數幾家超大型科技公司所驅動。其底層趨勢對台灣的利益是不利的。台積電的美國存託憑證(ADR)下跌，而超微(AMD)在財報公布後的股價重挫，預示著特定的疲弱態勢正在整個半導體領域擴散。此價格走勢表明，市場已開始反應已宣布關稅的直接衝擊。此一力量目前正蓋過先前因美國疲弱就業數據而支撐聯準會降息希望的順風。
台股加權指數(TAIEX)近期的強勢，是建立在對AI需求的樂觀預期以及鴿派聯準會的基礎上。從技術面看，在強勁的法人買盤支撐下，指數仍處於所有關鍵移動平均線之上的多頭格局。從基本面看，共同封裝光學元件(Co-Packaged Optics)的技術週期和台灣央行穩定的貨幣政策等國內驅動因素，提供了一個堅實的基礎。然而，這些正面因素現在已退居次要，讓位於外部的關稅威脅。擬議的關稅以及對台積電(TSMC)附加的條件，對整個台灣科技生態系統的估值構成了直接挑戰。
短期展望來看，台股加權指數(TAIEX)將面臨加劇的波動和區間震盪的交易格局。在關稅情勢更加明朗之前，指數將難以實現可持續的突破。資金流向是需要觀察的關鍵指標。儘管外資昨日是淨買入方，但這種市場情緒很可能因地緣政治的頭條新聞而瞬間逆轉。策略上應側重於佈局績效優異、流動性佳的大型權值股，聚焦於AI供應鏈、機器人及生物科技等領域，同時應對頭條新聞驅動的風險，以及可能集中在半導體產業的下檔壓力。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣股市趨勢
今日的分析顯示，亞洲主要股市普遍走強，多數區域指數的趨勢皆改善至強勢正向。此一看漲的區域情緒，與台灣最大型企業之間的表現形成對比，其好壞參半的結果預示著頂尖科技與製造業權值股之間正出現顯著的資金輪動。
圖表一：區域股市指數 (以美元計價)
- 台灣 (代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 香港 (代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 新加坡 (代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 日本 (代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 南韓 (代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
亞洲主要市場的動能已有所改善。台灣、新加坡和日本的趨勢均從正向增強為強勢正向。香港和南韓則維持其強勢正向的狀態，顯示整個區域的投資者信心持續。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業 (以新台幣計價)
- 台積電 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, 2330): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 鴻海精密 (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, 2317): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 聯發科 (MediaTek Inc, 2454): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
- 廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc, 2382): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼▼
- 台達電 (Delta Electronics Inc, 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
台灣龍頭企業之間存在著顯著的表現分歧。台達電維持其強勢正向的趨勢，證實了其市場領導地位。鴻海精密和廣達電腦均呈現顯著改善，其中廣達電腦觀察到正向轉變，從強烈負向轉為正向。相較之下，台積電的趨勢穩定維持在中性，而聯發科的狀況則惡化至強烈負向。此一表現分歧，指向該產業內部出現了明確的資金輪動。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
New Semiconductor Tariff Threat Creates Sector-Wide Volatility
Geopolitical risk now directly targets Taiwan's core industry, overshadowing bullish AI trends and creating conditions for significant market fluctuation.
By Joe 盧, CFA | August 6, 2025
Executive Summary
- Markets face conflicting forces as bullish AI momentum and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations meet escalating US-Taiwan trade tensions.
- US indices rose on large-cap tech strength, but a proposed semiconductor tariff and a weak AMD outlook signal direct risk for the chip sector and TAIEX.
- Weak US non-farm payrolls data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, supporting risk appetite.
- Taiwan's central bank signals a stable domestic economy, but the risk of a slowdown in the second half is increasing due to tariff uncertainty.
- The primary risk factor is the new US tariff threat. Reports of demands on TSMC create a critical negotiation challenge for Taiwan.
Geopolitical risk is the focus of the day. President Trump's announcement of a semiconductor tariff, combined with reports of demands for TSMC, introduces a severe headwind that challenges the prevailing AI-driven narrative. This development directly targets the core of Taiwan's economy and its premier stock index, creating conditions for high-level consolidation and volatility. You should view any near-term market strength through this lens of heightened external pressure.
Yesterday’s US session displayed conflicting signals. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 advanced, but the rally was narrow, driven by a few mega-cap technology firms. The undercurrent is negative for Taiwan's interests. TSMC's ADR declined, and AMD's post-earnings drop signals specific weakness spreading through the semiconductor space. This price action indicates the market is beginning to discount the direct impact of the announced tariffs. This force is now overshadowing the tailwind from weak US jobs data that previously supported hopes for a Fed rate cut.
The TAIEX's recent strength was predicated on optimism around AI demand and a dovish Fed. Technically, the index remains in a bullish posture above all key moving averages, supported by strong institutional buying. Fundamentally, domestic drivers like the Co-Packaged Optics technology cycle and a stable monetary policy from Taiwan's central bank provide a solid base. These positive factors are now secondary to the external tariff threat. The proposed tariff and the conditions placed on TSMC represent a direct challenge to the valuation of Taiwan's entire technology ecosystem.
The immediate outlook is for heightened volatility and range-bound trading for the TAIEX. The index will struggle to achieve a sustainable breakout until there is more clarity on the tariff situation. Capital flows are the key indicator to watch. While foreign investors were net buyers yesterday, this sentiment is subject to instant reversal on geopolitical headlines. Your strategy should center on positioning in high-performing, large-cap names with good liquidity, focusing on AI supply chains, robotics, and biotechnology, while bracing for headline-driven risk and potential downside pressure concentrated in the semiconductor sector.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today's analysis reveals broad strength across major Asian equity markets, with most regional indices improving to a strongly positive trend. This bullish regional sentiment contrasts with performance among Taiwan's largest companies, where opposing results signal significant capital rotation among top technology and manufacturing names.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Momentum across key Asian markets has improved. The trends for Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan all strengthened from positive to strongly positive. Hong Kong and South Korea maintained their strongly positive status, indicating sustained investor confidence across the region.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A significant performance split exists among Taiwan's leading companies. Delta Electronics Inc maintained its strongly positive trend, confirming its market leadership. Both Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd and Quanta Computer Inc showed notable improvement. A positive shift was observed for Quanta, moving from strongly negative to positive. In contrast, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's trend was stable at neutral, while conditions for MediaTek Inc deteriorated to strongly negative. This performance split points to a distinct rotation of capital within the sector.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。