【Joe’s華爾街脈動】關稅豁免激勵科技股，政策細節成市場新焦點

台積電、蘋果獲豁免，那斯達克上漲，大盤暫歇；台股有望迎來補漲行情

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月8日 美東時間

摘要

• 美國科技股的表現優於週期性類股。此一優異表現，是在包含策略性豁免的細緻化關稅公告之後所出現。
• 那斯達克指數上漲。在蘋果公司(Apple)和台積電(TSMC)承諾赴美投資，從而雙雙獲得新的100%半導體關稅豁免後，蘋果股價的上揚以及台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的盤後大漲共同拉抬了該指數。
• 在10年期公債標售疲弱後，公債殖利率大致穩定在4.24%左右。在勞動市場前景趨緩的背景下，市場持續預期聯準會九月降息的機率很高。
• 美國第二季勞動生產力成長2.4%，釋出正面的經濟訊號。台灣溫和的七月消費者物價指數(CPI)為1.54%，為國內政策提供了彈性空間。
• 對關鍵產業領導者而言，美國新的半導體關稅已透過豁免條款被抵銷。這使得風險從整個產業，轉移至沒有美國設廠計畫的特定公司。

今日的核心要點在於，對關鍵市場參與者而言，先前擔憂的全面性100%半導體關稅這一最壞情況已得以避免。川普政府對台積電(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)等正在美國建立製造產能的公司給予明確豁免，從根本上改變了投資組合的風險評估基準。那斯達克指數(Nasdaq)的韌性以及台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的盤後強勢，正反映了此一轉變，直接消除了導致台股加權指數(TAIEX)在前一交易日重挫超過200點所造成的恐懼。

推動市場走動的核心，正是此一政策的細節之處。那斯達克指數的上漲，是市場對主要科技供應鏈風險解除的直接反應。道瓊(Dow)和標普500(S&P 500)指數則走勢疲弱，因更廣泛的週期性類股正在消化其他商品被課徵更高關稅所帶來的通膨和潛在干擾。此一動態，是在強勁的第二季財報季所提供的支撐背景下展開。82%的標普500指數成分股公司財報優於預期，將全年成長預測推升至10%。此一基本面實力，為政策引發的波動提供了緩衝。儘管10年期公債標售表現平淡，債券市場仍受到聯準會將走向寬鬆的預期所支撐，這對股票估值有利。

隔夜的最新發展預示，台股可能迎來由半導體類股帶動的補漲行情。昨日台積電(TSMC)的賣壓是基於一項威脅，而該威脅現已大幅緩解。市場焦點將轉回基本面，這包括即將到來的蘋果(Apple) iPhone 17產品週期，以及對AI基礎設施的持續需求。台灣國內穩定的通膨提供了一個平靜的本地環境，讓投資者能專注於這些全球性的驅動因素。

展望台股加權指數(TAIEX)開盤，預期電子類股將出現正向的重新定價，特別是台積電(TSMC)及相關的蘋果供應鏈。由美國政策頭條所引發的高度波動將持續，但眼前的威脅已經消退。當前的投資策略必須著重於在AI、先進封裝和材料升級等主流趨勢中，具備強大執行力與策略定位的公司。這些是能最佳抵禦更廣泛地緣政治摩擦的標的。

週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品

本報告突顯了大宗商品綜合指數內部的分歧走勢，以及貨幣市場的相對穩定。金屬和數位資產展現出強勁的正向動能，這與能源類的顯著疲弱形成對比。主要貨幣兌新台幣的匯率則持穩。

圖表一：貨幣 (以新台幣計價)

• 美元 (貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
• 歐元 (貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
• 日圓 (貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
• 人民幣 (貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
• 加幣 (貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --

主要貨幣兌新台幣的趨勢大致穩定。美元、人民幣和加幣均維持中性狀態。歐元和日圓的趨勢從負向轉強為中性，顯示其近期的弱勢表現有所緩解。

圖表二：大宗商品 (以美元計價)

• 能源類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: --
• 農業類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 工業金屬 (代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --
• 貴金屬 (代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --
• 數位資產 (代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

能源類大宗商品的趨勢顯著轉弱，轉為強烈負向。農業類大宗商品的趨勢略有改善，但仍維持負向。工業金屬和貴金屬則觀察到正向轉變，趨勢現已轉為強勢正向。數位資產的趨勢持穩，維持在強勢正向。硬資產與數位資產的市場情緒堅定，此一趨勢與疲弱的能源前景脫鉤。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Tariff Exemptions Drive Technology Stocks; Policy Nuance Is Now Key

Nasdaq Advances on TSMC, Apple Exemptions as Broader Market Pauses; TAIEX Positioned for Relief

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/08/2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. technology stocks outperformed cyclicals. The outperformance followed nuanced tariff announcements that included strategic exemptions.
• The Nasdaq advanced. Gains in Apple and a post-market surge in TSMC's ADR lifted the index after both secured exemptions from the new 100% semiconductor tariffs by committing to U.S. investment.
• Bond yields were largely stable around 4.24% following a weak 10-year auction. The market continues to price a high probability of a September Fed rate cut amid a softening labor outlook.
• Strong U.S. Q2 labor productivity growth of 2.4% provided a positive economic signal. Taiwan's benign July CPI of 1.54% offers domestic policy flexibility.
• The new U.S. semiconductor tariff was neutralized for key industry leaders through exemptions. This shifts risk from the entire sector to specific companies without U.S. manufacturing plans.

The central takeaway is that the worst-case scenario of a blanket 100% semiconductor tariff has been averted for key players. The Trump administration's explicit exemptions for companies like TSMC and Samsung, who are building U.S. manufacturing capacity, fundamentally changes the risk calculus for your portfolio. The Nasdaq's resilience and the after-hours strength in TSMC's ADR reflect this change, directly countering the fears that drove the TAIEX down over 200 points in the prior session.

This policy nuance was the dominant driver of market action. The Nasdaq's advance was a direct reaction to the de-risking of major technology supply chains. The Dow and S&P 500 faltered as broader, cyclical sectors digested the inflationary and disruptive potential of higher tariffs on other goods. This dynamic is unfolding against a supportive backdrop of a robust Q2 earnings season. 82% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates, pushing full-year growth forecasts up to 10%. This fundamental strength provides a buffer against policy-induced volatility. Despite a lackluster 10-year Treasury auction, bond markets remain anchored by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, which supports equity valuations.

The overnight developments signal a probable relief rally in the local market, led by the semiconductor sector. Yesterday's sell-off in TSMC was predicated on a threat that is now substantially mitigated. The focus will pivot back to fundamentals. These include the upcoming Apple iPhone 17 product cycle and ongoing demand for AI infrastructure. Taiwan's stable domestic inflation provides a calm local backdrop, allowing you to focus on these global drivers.

Looking ahead to the TAIEX open, expect a positive repricing in electronics, particularly in TSMC and the associated Apple supply chain. High-level volatility from U.S. policy headlines will continue. The immediate threat has receded. Your investment strategy must now focus on companies with strong execution and strategic positioning within dominant themes like AI, advanced packaging, and material upgrades. These are the names best insulated from broader geopolitical friction.

Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities

This report highlights opposing movements in the commodity complex and relative stability in currency markets. Metals and Digital Assets exhibit strong positive momentum. This contrasts with the pronounced weakness in Energy. Key currency pairs against the TWD are holding steady.

Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)

• U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --

Currency trends against the Taiwan Dollar are largely stable. The U.S. Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained a neutral status. Trends for the Euro and Japanese Yen strengthened from negative to neutral, signaling a reduction in their recent underperformance.

Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)

• Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: --
• Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
• Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
• Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The trend for Energy Commodities weakened significantly, becoming strongly negative. The trend for Agricultural Commodities improved slightly, though it remains negative. A positive shift was observed in Industrial and Precious Metals, with trends now strongly positive. The trend in Digital Assets held steady, remaining strongly positive. Sentiment in hard and digital assets is firm, which is separate from the weak energy outlook.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。