【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國通膨數據激勵股市大漲，強化聯準會寬鬆路徑

優於預期的CPI數據推升美股創下新高，為台灣科技導向的市場預示有利環境

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月12日 美東時間

摘要

• 由於溫和的通膨數據強化了市場對聯準會九月降息的預期，美國股市飆升至歷史新高。
• 羅素2000指數(Russell 2000)領漲，顯示風險偏好情緒明確轉向，而標普500指數和那斯達克指數也同創歷史紀錄。
• 2年期公債殖利率應聲下跌，直接反映降息機率升高，而長天期公債殖利率則維持穩定。
• 七月份核心消費者物價指數(CPI)月增0.3%，主要由服務業而非受關稅影響的商品所推動，此數據給予了聯準會政策上的彈性。
• 美國政府決定將中國關稅期限延長90天，降低了立即的貿易摩擦，使市場焦點轉向貨幣政策。

今日美國盤勢的核心在於，市場明確釋出了持續承擔風險的訊號。七月份的消費者物價指數(CPI)報告，有效排除了聯準會先前面臨的一項關鍵障礙。數據顯示，決策者擁有充分的理由在九月份重啟其寬鬆週期。此一鴿派政策路徑的確認，為風險性資產提供了直接支撐，為以成長為導向的市場創造了正面的總體經濟背景，其中台灣市場更是首要受惠者。

對美股動態的分析顯示，此波漲勢具有健康的擴散性。小型股羅素2000指數(Russell 2000)的突出表現，預示著投資者的信心正從超大型科技股向外延伸，這是市場廣度的一個看漲指標。債券市場的表現也證實了此一看法：2年期公債殖利率下跌4個基點，直接反應了市場對短期降息的定價，而長天期殖利率的穩定則表明，此波走勢並非由長期的衰退擔憂所驅動。通膨數據中關稅傳導效應不大，這為聯準會提供了必要的掩護，使其即使在服務業通膨持續的情況下，也能著手進行寬鬆政策。

此一美國市場動態，正直接轉化為台股的順風條件。鴿派的聯準會、較弱勢的美元，以及全球對AI基礎設施未減的需求，為台股加權指數(TAIEX)形成了一個正面的組合。其基本面實力不容否認，台灣對美國創紀錄的出口數據即是明證，其出口額現已超越對中國大陸的出口，這是由AI供應鏈所驅動的結構性重新校準，而非短期趨勢。該產業前瞻性的焦點，從台積電(TSMC)對共同封裝光學元件(Co-Packaged Optics, CPO)所需創新的評論中可見一斑，這指向了供應鏈下一波的價值創造浪潮，其中包含了測試、封裝及高速零組件的專業廠商。

台股加權指數(TAIEX)的前景展望正向，技術指標強勁且動能偏多。儘管美國關稅決策的90天展延提供了一個穩定的窗口期，但貿易政策仍是主要的中期風險。此環境將促使投資者將注意力集中在績效優異、流動性佳且位居主流趨勢的股票上，包括：AI供應鏈(如印刷電路板PCB、銅箔基板CCL、CPO賦能者)、先進材料以及機器人領域。

週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣股市趨勢

今日的報告顯示，亞洲主要股市指數普遍呈現增強的動能，預示著廣泛的投資者信心。在台灣最大型的企業中，趨勢表現則有所分歧。儘管頂尖的半導體和電子公司維持強勁的正向趨勢，其他公司則顯現顯著疲弱，顯示市場環境高度選擇性。

圖表一：區域股市指數 (以美元計價)

• 台灣 (代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 香港 (代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 新加坡 (代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 日本 (代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 南韓 (代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲

區域股市展現出廣泛的正向動能。新加坡和南韓的趨勢改善至強勢正向，加入了同樣維持強勢正向狀態的台灣、香港和日本的行列。這預示著在這些關鍵市場中，投資者的信心持續且正在擴大。

圖表二：台灣前五大企業 (以新台幣計價)

• 台積電 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 鴻海精密 (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, 2317): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 聯發科 (MediaTek Inc, 2454): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
• 廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc, 2382): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 台達電 (Delta Electronics Inc, 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

台灣頂尖企業之間的表現存在顯著差異。台積電和台達電維持其強勁的正向趨勢，而鴻海精密和廣達電腦則保持其正向狀態。相較之下，聯發科的趨勢惡化至強烈負向，為該股帶來了特定的風險。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Inflation Data Spurs Equity Rally, Reinforcing Fed Easing Trajectory

Softer-than-feared CPI propels U.S. equities to new records, signaling a favorable environment for Taiwan's tech-centric market.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/12/2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. equities surged to new highs as benign inflation data reinforced expectations for a September Fed rate cut.
• The Russell 2000 led the rally, indicating a clear risk-on sentiment shift, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also posted records.
• The 2-year Treasury yield fell in direct response to heightened rate cut probabilities, while the long end remained stable.
• July's core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, driven by services rather than tariff-impacted goods, giving the Federal Reserve policy flexibility.
• The U.S. decision to extend the China tariff deadline by 90 days reduces immediate trade friction, shifting market focus to monetary policy.

The primary takeaway from the U.S. session is a clear signal for continued risk-taking. The July CPI report effectively removes a key obstacle for the Federal Reserve. The data confirms policymakers have sufficient justification to resume their easing cycle in September. This validation of a dovish policy path provides direct support for risk assets, creating a positive macro backdrop for growth-oriented markets, chief among them Taiwan.

Analysis of the U.S. market action reveals a healthy broadening of the rally. The standout performance in the small-cap Russell 2000 index signals investor confidence is expanding beyond mega-cap technology. This is a bullish indicator of market breadth. The bond market corroborated this view. The 4-basis-point drop in the 2-year Treasury yield is a direct pricing of near-term rate cuts, while stable long-dated yields indicate this is not driven by long-term recession fears. The muted pass-through from tariffs in the inflation data provides the Fed with the necessary cover to proceed with easing, even as services inflation persists.

This U.S. dynamic directly translates into a tailwind for Taiwanese equities. A dovish Fed, a weaker U.S. dollar, and unabated global demand for AI infrastructure form a positive combination for the TAIEX. The fundamental strength is undeniable, evidenced by Taiwan's record exports to the U.S. These exports now surpass those to mainland China, a structural realignment driven by the AI supply chain. This is not a short-term trend. The industry's forward-looking focus, exemplified by TSMC's commentary on the innovation required for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), points to the next wave of value creation for the supply chain, including testing, packaging, and high-speed component specialists.

The outlook for the TAIEX appears positive. Technical indicators are strong and momentum is positive. While the 90-day extension on U.S. tariff decisions provides a window of stability, trade policy remains the primary medium-term risk. This environment directs investor attention to high-performing, liquid stocks within dominant themes: the AI supply chain (PCB, CCL, CPO-enablers), advanced materials, and robotics.

Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends

Today's report shows broad, strengthening momentum across key Asian equity indices, signaling widespread investor confidence. Within Taiwan's largest companies, trend performance is varied. While top-tier semiconductor and electronics firms maintain strong positive trends, others are showing significant weakness, indicating a highly selective market environment.

Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)

• Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲

Regional equity markets are demonstrating widespread positive momentum. The trends for Singapore and South Korea improved to strongly positive, joining Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Japan, which maintained their strongly positive status. This signals sustained and broadening investor confidence across these key markets.

Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
• Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Performance among Taiwan's top companies shows notable differences. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd and Delta Electronics Inc maintained their strong positive trends, while Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd and Quanta Computer Inc held their positive status. In contrast, the trend for MediaTek Inc deteriorated to strongly negative, presenting a specific risk for the stock.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。