【Joe’s華爾街脈動】降息確立推升股市再創新高

2025/08/14

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台股技術面蓄勢挑戰高點，外資流出與類股輪動值得密切關注

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月13日美東時間

摘要

在聯準會九月降息幾近確立的背景下，美股飆升至歷史新高，為亞洲市場創造了看漲的外部環境。
此波漲勢基礎廣泛，由那斯達克與小型股羅素2000指數領漲；而在台灣，資金從大型電子股輪動至塑膠、玻璃及中小型股。
美元急劇走弱，以及VIX指數創下2025年新低，反映了市場已果斷地將貨幣寬鬆政策納入定價。
七月份美國消費者物價指數(CPI)低於預期，為2.7%，為市場積極佈局降息預期提供了最後的催化劑。
台灣政府正積極鼓勵半導體赴美投資，作為當前雙邊貿易談判的戰略一環。

全球市場的主要驅動因素已然確立。市場預期聯準會九月降息的機率高達94%，此預期推動美國指數再創歷史新高，並將市場波動性壓抑至今年最低點。這為台股加權指數(TAIEX)提供了顯著的順風。然而，與此同時，國內指數的上漲來自內部輪動，而外資法人卻是大幅賣超。此動態顯示，儘管阻力最小的路徑指向上方，但全球資本的潛在信心仍然疲弱。

美國市場的反應相當果斷。優於預期的總體CPI數據是催化劑，將標普500指數和那斯達克指數推向全新的歷史高點。此波漲勢展現出廣度，小型股羅素2000指數在生物科技與醫療保健類股的帶領下表現突出。跨資產的訊號也證實了此一論述：美元兌主要貨幣急劇走弱，VIX指數則下跌至14.35。台積電(TSMC)美國存託憑證(ADR)的正向交易表現，為今日台灣電子股開盤提供了建設性的格局。

在台灣，加權指數展現技術性強勢，創下本波反彈新高。包括日線的KD、RSI及MACD在內的多項技術指標，均維持在多頭區域，預示著仍有進一步的上漲潛力。市場的內部動態則顯示，資金正從指標性的電子權值股，輪動至玻璃、塑膠等傳統產業，同時中小型股的交投也顯著升溫。此輪動發生之際，外資法人卻大幅賣超，昨日賣超金額超過新台幣570億元，這是投資者需考量的關鍵因素。

展望未來交易日，在美股強勢帶動下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)有望挑戰近期高點。然而，類股輪動與外資流出的組合，預示著指數在高檔可能出現波動與獲利了結賣壓。此環境有利於對績效優異、流動性佳的個股進行選擇性佈局。投資焦點應放在市場主流題材上，包括：AI與PCB供應鏈、材料科學升級、機器人，以及國防和生物科技等領域。

週三資產焦點：美國宏觀經濟與債券趨勢

今日的報告顯示，在經濟趨勢穩定的同時，美國債券市場正在走強。此一格局暗示，隨著投資者移入政府公債，市場出現了避險潮。此一行動也與資金流入美元的趨勢急劇惡化相呼應。

圖表一：美國宏觀經濟

投資存續期間: 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
企業獲利: 當前: --, 一週前: --
通貨膨脹: 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
美元資金流向: 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
消費者信心: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼

美國的經濟圖像顯示出特定的趨勢轉變。投資存續期間觀察到一個正向轉變，從負向轉為中性。企業獲利、通貨膨脹和消費者信心則皆維持穩定。資金流入美元的趨勢惡化，從負向轉為強烈負向，這指向了顯著的資本外流風險。

圖表二：美國債券市場 (以美元計價)

1-3年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
3-7年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
7-10年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
10-20年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
20年期以上美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼

美國公債市場展現普遍的強勢。以1-3年期和3-7年期美國公債為代表的短天期債務，其趨勢增強至強勢正向。殖利率曲線的中長天期部分，包括7-10年期和10-20年期美國公債，則維持其正向趨勢。20年期以上美國公債也觀察到一個正向轉變，其趨勢從負向轉為中性。這些變動預示著整體殖利率曲線的情緒出現了決定性的轉變。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Rate Cut Certainty Propels Stocks to New Records

TAIEX Technically Poised to Challenge Highs. Foreign Outflows and Sector Rotation Warrant Close Monitoring.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/13/2025

Executive Summary

U.S. equities surged to all-time highs on the near-certainty of a September Fed rate cut, creating a bullish external environment for Asian markets.
The rally was broad-based with the Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming, while in Taiwan, capital rotated from large-cap electronics into plastics, glass, and small-to-mid-cap stocks.
A sharply weaker U.S. Dollar and the lowest VIX reading of 2025 reflect the market's decisive pricing-in of monetary easing.
July's U.S. Consumer Price Index came in below expectations at 2.7%, providing the final catalyst for the market's aggressive rate-cut positioning.
Taiwan's administration is actively encouraging semiconductor investment in the U.S. as a strategic component of ongoing bilateral trade negotiations.

The primary driver for global markets is solidified. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are at 94% probability, propelling U.S. indices to new records and suppressing market volatility to its lowest point this year. This provides a significant tailwind for the TAIEX. Concurrently, the domestic index is rising from internal rotation as foreign institutions are significant net sellers. This dynamic suggests underlying conviction from global capital is weak, even as the path of least resistance points higher.

U.S. market action was decisive. Softer headline CPI data was the catalyst, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs. The rally exhibited healthy breadth. The small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed with leadership from the biotech and healthcare sectors. Cross-asset signals confirm the narrative. The U.S. dollar weakened sharply against major currencies, and the VIX fell to 14.35. Positive trading in TSMC's ADR provides a constructive setup for Taiwan's electronic sector at today's open.

In Taiwan, the weighted index displayed technical strength, hitting a new high for the current rebound phase. Technical indicators, including the daily KD, RSI, and MACD, remain in bullish territory, suggesting further upside potential. The market’s internal dynamic reveals a rotation away from benchmark electronic names into traditional industries like glass and plastics, alongside a surge in small-cap activity. This rotation occurs with significant net selling from foreign investors, who offloaded over 57 billion TWD yesterday. This is a critical factor for your consideration.

For the session ahead, the TAIEX is positioned to challenge recent highs, supported by the strong U.S. lead. The combination of sector rotation and foreign outflows indicates potential for volatility and profit-taking at higher levels. This environment favors selective positioning in high-performance, liquid stocks. Your focus should be on dominant market themes: the AI and PCB supply chains, material science upgrades, robotics, and the defense and biotechnology sectors.

Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic Indicators & Bond Trends

Today’s report shows strengthening U.S. bond markets alongside stable economic trends. The pattern suggests a flight to safety as investors move into government debt. This action corresponds with a sharp deterioration in capital flows into the dollar.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators

Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: ▼
Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: --
Inflation: Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
Consumer Strength: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼

The U.S. economic picture shows specific trend shifts. A positive shift was observed in Investment Duration, moving to neutral from negative. Corporate Earnings, Inflation, and Consumer Strength all remained stable. Currency Flow into the USD deteriorated, shifting from negative to strongly negative. This points to a significant risk of capital outflows.

Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)

1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: --, Last Week: ▼

The U.S. Treasury market shows broad strength. The trend for short-term debt, represented by 1-3 Year and 3-7 Year US Treasuries, strengthened to strongly positive. The mid-to-long part of the curve, including 7-10 Year and 10-20 Year US Treasuries, held its positive trend. A positive shift was observed in 20+ Year US Treasuries, which moved from a negative to a neutral trend. These movements signal a decisive shift in sentiment across the entire yield curve.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。