【Joe’s華爾街脈動】市場無視通膨警訊，降息信念助燃漲勢

2025/08/15

•

美國生產者物價飆升，台積電回檔

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月15日美東時間

摘要

市場正消化多空交錯的訊號：美國生產者物價的急遽上揚，與市場對聯準會九月降息的強烈預期成鮮明對比。
美國股市表現分歧，科技股相對落後。
美公債殖利率曲線全面上揚，直接反映了批發通膨數據的衝擊。
美國七月份生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.9%，為2022年6月以來的最大增幅，預示著上游通膨再度加速。
當前市場的主流觀點仍是聯準會將於下個月啟動降息循環的預期，並將此通膨數據視為次於疲弱勞動市場的考量。

市場的主要驅動因素，在於對聯準會於9月份降息的預期，此一力量蓋過了美國生產者物價通膨的顯著意外上揚，也助長了全球的風險偏好行為。市場的判斷相當明確：來自聯準會的潛在未來流動性，比當前的通膨數據更為重要。投資者需要思考，需要發生什麼事件，才會讓此一主流論述受到質疑？

美國七月份的生產者物價指數(PPI)上漲0.9%，遠高市場預期的0.2%。批發價格壓力正在加速，此一發展推高了美國公債殖利率。然而，股市的反應平淡，利率期貨市場的變動也極小，仍維持著九月降息的高機率。這表明，投資者的結論是，相較於此次的通膨數據，聯準會將優先考量近期勞動市場的疲弱。即將到來的傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會，現在成為市場期待聯準會釋出鴿派政策方向的焦點。

台股加權指數(TAIEX)在近期是此一全球論述的主要受益者。在最大半導體權值股的強勁表現，以及外資法人的顯著淨買超帶動下，指數在週三接近歷史高點。技術面格局仍偏多，動能指標和移動平均線均證實了強勁的上升趨勢。此波漲勢也呈現出從核心AI概念股向外擴散的跡象，印刷電路板(PCB)、機器人以及玻璃陶瓷等領域均有強勢表現，而其他科技股的疲弱則暗示，該產業內部正在發生輪動。

在大量資金流入和穩固的技術面支撐下，台灣股市的前景依然看好。對此一動能的主要風險，在於任何從根本上挑戰九月降息論述的數據或言論。投資者的焦點仍集中在績效優異的大型龍頭股，以及搭上長期成長趨勢的受益者，包括AI供應鏈、PCB升級和機器人等。如果聯準會釋出的訊號比預期更為鷹派，投資組合應如何佈局？

週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品

今日的報告突顯了大宗商品綜合指數內部以及特定貨幣對之間，出現了明顯的表現趨勢。工業金屬展現出持續的強勢，與能源領域的持續疲弱形成直接對比。在貨幣市場，歐元和加幣兌新台幣有所升值，而主要的亞洲貨幣和美元則保持穩定。

圖表一：貨幣 (以新台幣計價)

美元 (貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
歐元 (貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
日圓 (貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
人民幣 (貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
加幣 (貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: –

過去一週，歐元和加幣兌新台幣的趨勢展望觀察到正向轉變。與此同時，美元、日圓和人民幣的趨勢則維持穩定，保持其中性立場。這顯示貨幣強弱出現了選擇性的轉變。

圖表二：大宗商品 (以美元計價)

能源類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
農業類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
工業金屬 (代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
貴金屬 (代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
數位資產 (代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲

大宗商品領域的表現路徑分歧明顯。工業金屬維持強勢正向趨勢，預示著強勁的需求預期。相反地，能源類大宗商品則維持在強烈負向趨勢。農業類大宗商品的趨勢從負向轉強為中性。貴金屬和數位資產的趨勢雖然有所緩和，但仍處於正向區間。

👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。

📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。

📰追蹤此部落格。

💬LINE好友。

➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。

本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Inflation Warning Ignored as Rate Cut Conviction Fuels Market Rally

U.S. Producer Prices Spike, TSMC retreats

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/15/2025

Executive Summary

Global markets are processing conflicting signals. A sharp rise in U.S. producer prices contrasts with strong conviction for a September Federal Reserve rate cut.
U.S. equities showed varied performance with technology shares lagging.
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, a direct reaction to the wholesale inflation data.
The U.S. July Producer Price Index rose 0.9% month-over-month, the largest increase since June 2022, signaling a re-acceleration in pipeline inflation.
The dominant market narrative is fixed on the expectation the Fed will initiate a rate-cutting cycle next month, treating the inflation data as secondary to a softening labor market.

The market’s primary driver is the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a force overshadowing a significant upside surprise in U.S. producer inflation and fuels risk-on behavior globally. The market's assessment is clear: potential future liquidity from the Fed is more important than present inflation data. What events would need to occur for you to question this dominant narrative?

In the U.S., the July Producer Price Index (PPI) registered a 0.9% increase, well above the 0.2% forecast. Wholesale price pressures are accelerating, a development pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. Equity market reaction was muted and interest rate futures showed minimal change, maintaining a high probability of a September rate reduction. This indicates investors concluded the Fed will prioritize recent softness in the labor market over this inflation print. The upcoming Jackson Hole economic symposium is now the focal point where the market expects a dovish policy direction to be signaled.

The TAIEX is a prime beneficiary of this global narrative. The index reached a record high on Wednesday, driven by a strong performance in its largest semiconductor constituent and significant net buying from foreign institutions. The technical posture is bullish, with momentum indicators and moving averages confirming a strong upward trend. The rally shows signs of broadening beyond core AI plays, with strength emerging in PCBs, robotics, and glass ceramics. Weakness in other technology names suggests a rotation is occurring within the sector.

The outlook for Taiwanese equities remains constructive, supported by significant capital inflows and solid technicals. The primary risk to this momentum is any data or rhetoric fundamentally challenging the September rate cut narrative. Investor focus remains on high-performing, large-cap leaders and beneficiaries of secular growth trends, including the AI supply chain, PCB upgrades, and robotics. How should you position your portfolio if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated?

Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities

Today's report highlights distinct performance trends across the commodity complex and select currency pairs. Industrial metals exhibit sustained strength, directly contrasting with persistent weakness in the energy sector. In currency markets, the Euro and Canadian Dollar have improved against the TWD, while major Asian currencies and the U.S. Dollar hold stable.

Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)

U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: –

A positive shift was observed in the trend outlook for the Euro and the Canadian Dollar against the New Taiwan Dollar over the past week. Concurrently, the trends for the U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Chinese Yuan remained stable, maintaining their neutral stances. This indicates a selective shift in currency strength.

Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)

Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Distinct performance paths are evident in the commodities space. Industrial Metals maintained a strongly positive trend, signaling robust demand expectations. Conversely, Energy Commodities remained in a strongly negative trend. The trend for Agricultural Commodities strengthened from negative to neutral. The trends for Precious Metals and Digital Assets eased, though they remain in positive territory.

👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.

📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.

📰Follow this blog.

💬Connect with us on LINE.

➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。