【Joe’s華爾街脈動】川普半導體關稅威脅，挑戰多頭基本面

美國市場靜待消費數據，台灣則準備應對擬議的半導體關稅衝擊

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月18日 美東時間

摘要

• 在歐洲地緣政治議題的討論中，美國市場表現分歧。主要的風險驅動因素已轉向美國對亞洲新的半導體關稅威脅。
• 強勁的企業財報—第二季成長預測達10.4%—為美股估值提供了支撐，市場靜待指標性零售商的財報公布。
• 美國公債殖利率維持穩定，10年期公債殖利率為4.33%，反映在本週關鍵的製造業和服務業數據公布前，經濟前景穩定。
• 台灣上修年度GDP成長預測至4.45%，證實了強勁的國內基本面，然此基本面正遭遇新興的外部政策風險。
• 川普總統提出的300%半導體關稅是主導市場的新因素，此舉直接針對台灣產業，並蓋過了烏克蘭和平談判帶來的樂觀情緒。

市場正同時承受兩種截然不同力量的衝擊。一方面，強勁的財報和經濟數據為基本面提供了強力支撐；另一方面，美國擬議的半導體關稅所帶來的嚴峻地緣政治風險，形成了直接挑戰。來自華盛頓的此一保護主義訊號，是台灣投資人所面臨的最關鍵變數。這股逆風，即使在本地經濟數據依舊亮眼的情況下，也不容忽視。儘管台股加權指數(TAIEX)已展現技術性強勢，但此一基本面威脅為市場帶來了足以引發顯著修正的催化劑。

在美國，市場正聚焦於消費者健康狀況的評估。強勁的第二季財報季(綜合成長預測達10.4%)為估值提供了穩固支撐。本週來自Home Depot、Target 和沃爾瑪(Walmart)的財報，將為消費者支出提供關鍵參考。即將公布的採購經理人指數(PMI)數據預計將證實經濟持續擴張，製造業可能重返成長。此一穩健的財報和具韌性的經濟背景，使美國市場在基本面上保持健全。

對台灣而言，市場論述幾乎完全由川普總統呼籲對半導體晶片加徵300%關稅所主導。此政策直擊台灣經濟和股市的核心引擎。台灣的國內經濟圖像強健，主計總處將其2025年的GDP預測上修至4.45%。然而，外部壓力是一個更為直接且強大的市場驅動因素。對於缺乏像台積電(TSMC)那樣雄厚資本和政治影響力的小型晶圓代工廠而言，此威脅尤為嚴峻。

未來幾個交易日將是檢驗台股加權指數(TAIEX)能否抵禦此一針對性政策衝擊的關鍵時刻。預期市場波動將進一步加劇，且資金可能從受影響的半導體股中輪動而出。市場能否守住5日移動平均線，將是觀察其韌性的關鍵技術指標。此前的潛在趨勢一直明確偏多，而此次的關稅威脅，是第一個足以挑戰此一動能、並迫使整個電子產業重新進行風險定價的實質催化劑。

週一資產焦點：美國股市與頂尖個股趨勢

美國市場普遍釋出走強訊號，主要指數呈現穩定或改善的趨勢。在超大型科技股中，其表現則顯示在個股層面上，資金配置更具選擇性。

圖表一：美國股市指數 (以美元計價)

• 道瓊工業平均指數 (代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
• 標普500指數 (代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 那斯達克綜合指數 (代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 羅素2000指數 (代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
• 費城半導體指數 (代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲

大型股指數的動能維持穩固。標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數維持其強勢正向趨勢。道瓊工業平均指數和羅素2000指數則觀察到正向轉變，暗示市場漲勢可能正從科技股向外擴散。費城半導體指數則維持其正向趨勢，顯示此關鍵產業的持續穩定。

圖表二：美國前五大企業 (以美元計價)

• 輝達 (NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 微軟 (Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 蘋果 (Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: --, 一週前: --
• 亞馬遜 (Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
• Meta Platforms (META): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲

頂尖美企之間的表現趨勢出現分歧。輝達(NVIDIA)仍是領導者，維持其強勢正向趨勢。微軟(Microsoft)的趨勢從強勢正向放緩為正向，是一個值得注意的轉變。亞馬遜(Amazon.com)的趨勢改善為正向。蘋果(Apple)和Meta Platforms則趨勢穩定，分別維持其中性和正向的趨勢。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Trump's Semiconductor Tariff Threat Challenges Bullish Fundamentals

U.S. markets await consumer data. Taiwan braces for the impact of proposed 300% chip tariffs.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/18/2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. markets showed varied performance amid geopolitical discussions in Europe. The primary risk driver has shifted to new U.S. semiconductor tariff threats against Asia.
• Robust corporate earnings, with Q2 growth forecast at 10.4%, support U.S. equity valuations as the market awaits reports from bellwether retailers.
• U.S. Treasury yields are stable. The 10-year note is at 4.33%, reflecting a steady economic outlook ahead of this week's key manufacturing and services data.
• Taiwan's upgraded annual GDP growth forecast of 4.45% confirms strong domestic fundamentals, which face emerging external policy risks.
• President Trump's proposal for a 300% semiconductor tariff is the dominant new factor. This directly targets Taiwanese industry and overrides positive sentiment from Ukraine peace talks.

The market faces two distinct forces. Powerful fundamental support from strong earnings and economic data is now directly challenged by acute geopolitical risk from proposed U.S. semiconductor tariffs. This protectionist signal from Washington is the single most important variable for Taiwanese investors. It creates a headwind that fundamentally strong local economic data will not ignore. While the TAIEX has demonstrated technical strength, this fundamental threat introduces a catalyst for a significant correction.

In the United States, equity markets are assessing the health of the consumer. A strong Q2 earnings season, with blended growth projected at 10.4%, provides a firm backstop for valuations. This week's earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Walmart will offer a crucial read on consumer spending. Upcoming PMI data is expected to confirm continued economic expansion, with manufacturing likely returning to growth. This backdrop of solid earnings and a resilient economy keeps U.S. markets fundamentally sound.

For Taiwan, the narrative is dominated by President Trump’s call for 300% tariffs on semiconductor chips. This policy directly targets the engine of the Taiwanese economy and equity market. Taiwan’s domestic picture is robust. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 4.45%. This external pressure is a more immediate and potent market driver. The threat is particularly acute for smaller foundries that lack the capital and political leverage of an entity like TSMC.

The trading session ahead will test the TAIEX’s ability to withstand this targeted policy shock. Expect heightened volatility and a probable rotation out of exposed semiconductor names. The market's ability to hold the 5-day moving average is the key technical indicator of resilience. The underlying trend has been decisively bullish. This tariff threat is the first credible catalyst to challenge the momentum and force a repricing of risk across the electronics sector.

Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Top Stock Trends

The U.S. market signals broad strength. Major indices show stable or improving trends. Performance among mega-cap technology stocks indicates a more selective allocation of capital at the individual company level.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

Momentum in large-cap indices remains firm. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite maintain their strongly positive trends. A positive shift was observed for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 Index, suggesting a broadening of the market rally beyond technology. The PHLX Semiconductor Index held its positive trend, indicating continued stability in this critical sector.

Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)

• NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

Performance trends among top U.S. companies show variation. NVIDIA Corp remains the leader, holding its strongly positive trend. The trend for Microsoft Corp eased from strongly positive to positive, a notable downshift. Amazon.com Inc saw its trend improve to positive. Apple Inc and Meta Platforms Inc were stable, holding their neutral and positive trends, respectively.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。