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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國科技股領導地位收窄；台股憑藉內資實力走強
大型權值股疲軟掩蓋美股大盤穩定，台灣股市在關鍵機器人展前展現韌性
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月19日 美東時間
摘要
- 美國超大型科技股遭拋售，而更廣泛的美股市場與台灣股市則上漲，此現象指向市場領導地位的顯著轉變。
- 在輝達(NVIDIA)和Meta走弱的影響下，那斯達克和標普500指數下跌。相反地，台股加權指數(TAIEX)在法人買盤和國內基本面的支撐下，展現出相當的強勢。
- 隨著投資者移入固定收益資產，美國公債殖利率下滑。加拿大公債則因通膨數據低於預期而上漲。
- 家得寶(Home Depot)謹慎的財報，以及美國疲弱的房屋許可數據，皆顯示在本週傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會前，經濟面臨逆風。
- 關於俄烏和平協議可能性的討論，正對油價施加下行壓力，並影響歐洲市場情緒。
市場的主要訊號，是美國科技股領導地位的轉弱。集中在輝達(NVIDIA)和Meta等超大型權值股的賣壓，拉低了主要指數的表現。此一走勢掩蓋了絕大多數股票的穩定和上漲。相較之下，台灣市場正展現出由內需驅動的強勁動能，在外部壓力下逆勢上漲。此一發展表明，美國市場的領導地位正在動搖，而台灣股市的漲勢則在強勁的內部基本面和法人資金流的推動下，持續擴大。
美國的盤勢揭示了多空交錯的訊號。標普500指數和那斯達克指數表現疲弱，但這並非一次基礎廣泛的下跌。衡量市場平均股票表現的標普500等權重指數(S&P 500 equal-weighted index)實際上是上漲的，疲弱態勢集中在頂層的權值股。經濟背景支持市場採取謹慎的立場：家得寶(Home Depot)的財報標示出，由於高利率，消費者在大型項目上的支出猶豫不決；而房屋許可數量的下滑也證實了此一趨勢。在週五聯準會主席鮑爾於傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)年會發表貨幣政策訊號前，美國公債的上漲正反映了此一市場情緒。
台股加權指數(TAIEX)展現出顯著的韌性，消化了來自美國關稅威脅的初步壓力，並呈現強勁的盤中表現。此一強勢並非投機性的，其支撐來自於上修的GDP預測，以及外資(淨買超463.9億新台幣)和投信(淨買超173.2億新台幣)的果斷買盤。技術面格局維持多頭，指數守在5日移動平均線之上。值得投資者近期考量的關鍵動態是資金輪動：大量強勢股正面臨處置措施，這將迫使資金流向新的題材。
展望未來，台股加權指數(TAIEX)有望延續其上升軌跡。在8月20日「台灣機器人與智慧自動化展」登場前，資金很可能流向機器人和AI相關類股。投資者應留意傳聞中輝達(NVIDIA)晶片漲價可能帶來的利潤壓縮。市場的主導驅動因素，仍然是強勁的國內基本面。只要本地資金流和經濟數據維持支撐，美國科技股的集中性疲軟與台灣的廣泛性強勢，此一對比格局很可能將持續下去。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣股市趨勢
今日的焦點在亞洲。區域股市指數普遍走強，但出現些許放緩跡象。台灣的頂尖企業則表現分歧，贏家和輸家逐漸浮現，這暗示著一個高度選擇性的投資環境，值得投資組合多加關注。
圖表一：區域股市指數 (以美元計價)
- 台灣 (代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 香港 (代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 新加坡 (代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 日本 (代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 南韓 (代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
亞洲主要股市的量化趨勢維持穩固的正向。過去一週，台灣、香港、新加坡和日本均維持其強勢正向的狀態。南韓是唯一的例外，其趨勢從強勢正向惡化為正向，預示著相對動能的流失。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業 (以新台幣計價)
- 台積電 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 鴻海精密 (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, 2317): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 聯發科 (MediaTek Inc, 2454): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼
- 廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc, 2382): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▲
- 台達電 (Delta Electronics Inc, 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
台灣最大型企業之間，可見到顯著的表現分歧。台積電和台達電維持其強勢正向趨勢，顯示其持續的領導地位。鴻海精密觀察到正向轉變，其趨勢增強為強勢正向。聯發科的趨勢則從強烈負向顯著改善為中性。相較之下，廣達電腦的趨勢則從正向急劇惡化為強烈負向，這是一個值得考量的重大風險指標。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Tech Leadership Narrows; TAIEX Advances on Domestic Strength
Mega-Cap Weakness Masks Broader U.S. Market Stability as Taiwanese Equities Show Resilience Ahead of Key Robotics Expo
By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/19/2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. mega-cap tech sold off while the broader U.S. market and Taiwanese equities advanced. This points to a significant shift in market leadership.
- The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell on NVIDIA and Meta weakness. The TAIEX, conversely, showed considerable strength, buoyed by institutional buying and domestic fundamentals.
- U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors moved into fixed income. Canadian bonds rallied on softer-than-expected inflation data.
- Cautious earnings from Home Depot and weak U.S. housing permits show economic headwinds ahead of this week's Jackson Hole symposium.
- Discussions about a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement are applying downward pressure on oil prices and influencing European market sentiment.
The primary market signal is weakening leadership in U.S. technology. A narrow sell-off in mega-cap names like NVIDIA and Meta pulled down headline indices. This action masked stability and gains across the majority of stocks. The Taiwanese market, in contrast, is displaying robust, domestically-driven momentum, advancing despite external pressures. This development suggests U.S. market leadership is faltering while Taiwan’s equity advance is broadening, fueled by strong internal fundamentals and institutional capital flows.
The U.S. session revealed conflicting signals. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded weak performance, though this was not a broad-based decline. The S&P 500 equal-weighted index, a gauge of the average stock, advanced. The weakness was concentrated at the top. The economic backdrop supports a cautious stance. Home Depot's earnings flagged consumer hesitancy on large projects due to high interest rates. A drop in housing permits corroborates this trend. A rally in U.S. Treasuries reflects this sentiment as you await monetary policy signals from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The TAIEX demonstrated significant resilience. It absorbed initial pressure from U.S. tariff threats and showed strong intraday performance. This strength is not speculative. Support comes from an upwardly revised GDP forecast and decisive net buying from foreign (+46.39B NTD) and IT (+17.32B NTD) investors. The technical posture remains bullish, holding above the 5-day moving average. The key near-term dynamic for your consideration is capital rotation. A large number of strong-performing stocks face disposition measures, which will force funds into new themes.
Looking ahead, the TAIEX is positioned to continue its upward trajectory. Capital will likely flow toward robotics and AI-related sectors ahead of the Taiwan Robotics and Intelligent Automation Exhibition on August 20. You should monitor potential margin compression from rumored NVIDIA chip price hikes. The dominant driver remains strong domestic fundamentals. The contrast of concentrated weakness in U.S. tech and broad strength in Taiwan will likely continue as long as local fund flows and economic data remain supportive.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today's focus is on Asia. Regional equity indices exhibit broad strength with some signs of moderation. The top tier of Taiwanese companies shows varied performance. Clear winners and losers are emerging. This suggests a highly selective investment environment for your portfolio.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Quantitative trends for major Asian equity markets remain firmly positive. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan all maintained their strongly positive status over the past week. South Korea is the sole exception. Its trend deteriorated from strongly positive to positive, signaling a relative loss of momentum.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▲
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A notable performance split is visible among Taiwan's largest companies. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd and Delta Electronics Inc held their strongly positive trends, indicating sustained leadership. A positive shift was observed for Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, whose trend strengthened to strongly positive. MediaTek Inc's trend improved significantly from strongly negative to neutral. In contrast, Quanta Computer Inc experienced a sharp trend deterioration from positive to strongly negative. This is a significant risk indicator to consider.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。