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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】股市強勢遇新挑戰，政策逆風來襲
美國政府企圖以補貼換股權，台積電下跌，對台灣科技股動能構成直接風險
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月20日 美東時間
摘要
- 強勁的美國企業基本面，正與一項衝擊亞洲半導體供應鏈的針對性政策風險正面對決。
- 儘管零售業財報穩健，美國股市收低；而台股加權指數(TAIEX)則因獲利了結賣壓以及台積電(TSMC)美國存託憑證(ADR)的回檔，自近期高點反轉。
- 美國公債殖利率下滑，預示在關鍵經濟數據與央行評論公布前，市場基調謹慎。
- 即將公布的美國採購經理人指數(PMI)初值，預計將證實經濟持續擴張，強化了穩定的總經背景。
- 關於美國政府將要求以股權交換《晶片法案》補貼的報導，為非美國半導體公司帶來了顯著的政策新逆風。
今日投資者的首要考量，是源自美國政府的新政策風險。有報導指出，華盛頓正考慮以股權交換《晶片法案》(CHIPS Act)所提供的補貼。此舉恐將直接威脅到受補貼科技公司(包括台積電)的資本結構與股東回報。此一發展對台積電(TSMC)股價形成壓力，並為台灣科技產業帶來了重大逆風，蓋過了由強勁企業財報所定義的建設性美股市場環境。在市場消化此一外部壓力之際，台股加權指數(TAIEX)目前已進入高檔盤整的格局。
美國的基本面依舊穩健。標普500指數的財報季表現強勁，大多數公司的財報均優於預期。來自Target (TGT) 和Lowe’s (LOW)等零售商的業績，證實了消費者的韌性，為經濟活動提供了堅實支撐。展望後市，即將公布的採購經理人指數(PMI)初值，預計將顯示服務業和製造業持續但溫和的擴張。此一強勁企業表現和穩定經濟成長的組合，支撐了美股在歷史高點附近的估值。
直接的政策變化正挑戰台股的強勢格局。台股加權指數(TAIEX)在技術面上已顯現短期的疲態，在成交量放大和技術指標的訊號下，自近期高點反轉。關於《晶片法案》的消息，為獲利了結賣壓和風險的重新評估，提供了一個基本面的催化劑，而外資法人的顯著淨賣出也進一步證實了這股壓力。此一政策轉變是一項實質的風險，投資者應預期這將在短期內對市場情緒構成壓力。
展望未來，台股加權指數(TAIEX)將在這些多空交錯的訊號中持續角力。儘管AI的長期結構性需求——從台積電(TSMC)的CoWoS產能擴張和輝達(NVIDIA)持續的產品推出可見一斑——仍然是市場的多頭題材，但短期的市場走勢將由來自美國的政策頭條，以及對聯準會主席鮑爾演說的預期所主導。隨著資金因應此一新的不確定性，預期市場波動和輪動將會加劇。牛市的結構依然完整，但一段時間的盤整現已成為基本預期。
週三資產焦點：美國宏觀經濟與債券趨勢
經濟訊號普遍偏向負面，主要由投資存續期間展望的惡化所引領。此一風險趨避的情緒在債券市場中得到證實，投資者正輪動至短期政府公債，同時拋售長天期公債。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
- 投資存續期間: 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
- 企業獲利: 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 通貨膨脹: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 美元資金流向: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 消費者信心: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
總體經濟圖像顯露壓力跡象。投資存續期間的趨勢已惡化至負向，預示著市場謹慎情緒正在升高。雖然企業獲利穩定維持在中性，但消費者信心仍處於負向。通膨和美元資金流向則有所改善，其負向動能相較上週有所緩和。
圖表二：美國債券市場 (以美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 3-7年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 7-10年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 10-20年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
- 20年期以上美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: –
美國公債殖利率曲線可見到清晰的轉變。短天期債務釋放出避險訊號，1-3年期美國公債和3-7年期美國公債均維持其強勢正向趨勢。相較之下，長天期公債則顯著轉弱。10-20年期美國公債和20年期以上美國公債的趨勢，均從正向或中性惡化至負向，這是一個典型的風險趨避訊號。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Stock Market Strength Confronts New Policy Headwinds
TSMC Declines as the U.S. Seeks Equity for Subsidies, Posing Direct Risk to Taiwan Tech Momentum
By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/20/2025
Executive Summary
- Strong U.S. corporate fundamentals confront a targeted policy risk impacting the Asian semiconductor supply chain.
- U.S. equities closed lower despite solid retail earnings data, while the TAIEX reversed from a recent high on profit-taking and a decline in TSMC's ADR.
- U.S. Treasury yields declined, signaling a cautious tone ahead of key economic data and central bank commentary.
- Forthcoming U.S. Flash PMI data is forecast to confirm continued economic expansion, reinforcing a stable macroeconomic backdrop.
- Reports the U.S. will demand equity stakes for CHIPS Act subsidies represent a significant new policy headwind for non-U.S. semiconductor firms.
The primary factor for investors today is the new policy risk emerging from the United States government. Reports Washington is now seeking equity in exchange for subsidies provided by the CHIPS Act directly threaten the capital structure and shareholder returns of subsidized technology firms, including TSMC. This development pressured TSMC downward and introduced a significant headwind for the Taiwanese technology sector, overshadowing a constructive U.S. market environment defined by robust corporate earnings. The TAIEX is now positioned for high-level consolidation as the market digests this external pressure.
The underlying fundamentals in the U.S. remain solid. The S&P 500 earnings season has been strong, with a majority of companies beating estimates. Results from retailers like Target and Lowe’s confirm consumer resilience, providing a firm foundation for economic activity. Upcoming Flash PMI readings are expected to show continued, moderating expansion in both services and manufacturing. This combination of strong corporate performance and steady economic growth has supported U.S. equity valuations near historical highs.
Direct policy development now challenges the strength of Taiwanese stocks. The TAIEX was already showing signs of short-term technical fatigue, reversing from a recent high on increased volume and signals from technical indicators. The news regarding the CHIPS Act provides a fundamental catalyst for profit-taking and a reassessment of risk, validated by significant net selling from foreign institutions. This policy shift is a tangible risk. You should expect this to weigh on investor sentiment in the near term.
Looking ahead, the TAIEX will contend with these conflicting signals. While long-term structural demand for AI, evidenced by TSMC's CoWoS capacity expansion and Nvidia's continued product rollouts, remains a bullish theme, short-term market action will be dictated by policy headlines from the U.S. and anticipation of Chairman Powell's speech. Expect increased volatility and rotation as capital responds to this new uncertainty. The bull market structure remains intact, but a period of consolidation is now the base case.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic Indicators & Bond Trends
Economic signals are broadly negative, led by a deterioration in the outlook for investment duration. This risk-off sentiment is confirmed in the bond market. Investors are rotating into short-term government debt while selling long-duration treasuries.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Inflation: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The macroeconomic picture shows signs of strain. The trend for Investment Duration has deteriorated to negative, signaling rising caution. While Corporate Earnings held stable at neutral, Consumer Strength remains negative. Improvement comes from Inflation and Currency Flow (into USD), where negative momentum eased compared to last week.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: –
A clear shift is visible across the U.S. Treasury curve. Short-term debt signals a flight to safety, with 1-3 Year US Treasuries and 3-7 Year US Treasuries maintaining their strongly positive trends. In contrast, long-duration bonds are weakening significantly. The trends for 10-20 Year US Treasuries and 20+ Year US Treasuries both deteriorated from positive or neutral to negative, a classic risk-off signal.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。