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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】避險情緒升溫，美債殖利率攀升，地緣政治擔憂拖累台股
傑克森霍爾年會前全球市場重估聯準會預期，外資流出引發台北股市急跌
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月21日 美東時間
摘要
- 在市場重新評估央行政策下，果斷的風險趨避輪動籠罩全球市場，股市下跌、債券殖利率上揚。
- 美國科技股領跌，台灣股市則在大量外資流出下週三經歷重挫，跌破關鍵技術水位。
- 在強勁的PMI數據與鷹派的聯準會評論，削弱了短期降息的預期後，美國公債殖利率因價格下跌而攀升。
- 美國經濟活動調查顯示韌性，但與此同時，連續請領失業金人數的上升，預示著勞動市場正在轉弱。
- 市場焦點加劇集中在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會。川普政府提出對半導體公司直接投資的提案，為台積電(TSMC)造成了顯著逆風。
市場正經歷一場急遽的風險重新定價。美國央行的鷹派基調，與圍繞台灣半導體產業的嚴峻地緣政治焦慮交織，此雙重壓力在週三觸發了台股加權指數(TAIEX)的嚴重技術性崩跌，指數失守了月線支撐。一篇暗示美國政府可能成為《晶片法案》受補貼者(包含台積電)的股東報導，催化了此波賣壓。此消息引發了外資大舉出走，龐大的資金流出拖累了科技權值股。
在美國，市場正努力應對聯準會九月降息預期的降溫。優於預期的八月份採購經理人指數(PMI)，代表著具韌性的商業活動和上升的價格壓力。此數據支撐了七月份聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議中的鷹派傾向，推高了美國2年期公債殖利率，並對利率敏感型資產，特別是大型科技股構成壓力。美國初請領失業金人數維持在低位，但與此同時，連續請領失業金人數穩定上升至多年高點，顯示再就業的前景正在惡化。
台股的這波賣壓具有系統性且範圍廣泛，週三重創電子產業及台積電(TSMC)等關鍵指標股。技術面的損傷明顯，指數在成交量放大下收在盤中低點附近，關鍵動能指標明確轉弱。在經歷此衝擊後，市場進入了一段盤整期。短期的市場方向將取決於外部事件。
台股加權指數(TAIEX)在技術面上呈現脆弱格局，短期內需要數日的整理與穩定，預期波動將持續。市場的焦點在於聯準會主席鮑爾在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)年會演說的前瞻指引、輝達(Nvidia)即將公布的財報，以及美國半導體政策的發展。這為投資者的投資組合帶來了關鍵問題：關於高Beta資產，與位處AI、機器人及高速傳輸等長期成長趨勢中、績效優異且流動性佳的大型權值股之間的曝險配置。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
今日報告檢視貨幣與大宗商品。這些資產類別的趨勢正朝不同方向發展。主要貨幣兌新台幣走強，而大宗商品綜合指數的不同類別則呈現分歧趨勢。工業金屬急劇惡化，貴金屬和數位資產則維持強勢，這預示著投資者正進行選擇性的風險佈局。
圖表一：貨幣 (以新台幣計價)
- 美元 (貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: –
- 歐元 (貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 日圓 (貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: –
- 人民幣 (貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: –
- 加幣 (貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
貨幣市場普遍呈現兌新台幣走強的格局。過去一週，美元和人民幣的趨勢雙雙從中性改善為正向。歐元和加幣則維持其穩定的正向趨勢。日圓守住其中性立場。此格局顯示，新台幣兌全球主要貨幣相對走弱。
圖表二：大宗商品 (以美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 農業類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: --, 一週前: –
- 工業金屬 (代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲▲
- 貴金屬 (代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 數位資產 (代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
大宗商品綜合指數內部定義了顯著的趨勢差異。工業金屬的趨勢從強勢正向急劇惡化為負向，這是對全球成長預期的一個關鍵看跌訊號。能源類大宗商品則維持在強烈負向趨勢。貴金屬和數位資產守住其正向趨勢，這暗示資金正流向另類保值資產。農業類大宗商品則穩定維持中性趨勢。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Risk-Off Accelerates as U.S. Yields Rise, TAIEX Breaks Key Support on Geopolitical Concerns
Foreign Outflows Drive a Sharp Decline in Taipei as Global Markets Recalibrate Fed Expectations Ahead of Jackson Hole
By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/21/2025
Executive Summary
- A decisive risk-off rotation gripped global markets. Equities fell and bond yields rose on reassessed central bank policy.
- U.S. tech stocks led the decline and Taiwan equities experienced a severe sell-off, breaking critical technical levels amid heavy foreign outflows.
- U.S. Treasury yields climbed as strong PMI data and hawkish Fed commentary diminished expectations for a near-term interest rate cut.
- U.S. economic activity surveys show resilience. At the same time, rising continuing unemployment claims signal a weakening labor market.
- Focus intensified on the Jackson Hole symposium. A U.S. proposal for direct investment in semiconductor firms created significant headwinds for TSMC.
A sharp repricing of risk is driving markets. Hawkish U.S. central bank sentiment converged with acute geopolitical anxiety surrounding Taiwan's semiconductor industry. This dual pressure triggered a severe technical breakdown in the TAIEX, which lost its monthly moving average support. A report suggesting the U.S. government becoming a potential owner in CHIPS Act recipients, including TSMC, acted as the catalyst. This news prompted a foreign capital exodus, with large outflows weighing on heavyweight technology stocks.
In the United States, markets are contending with diminished expectations for a September Fed rate cut. Stronger-than-expected flash PMI data for August signaled resilient business activity and rising price pressures. This data reinforces the hawkish tilt from the July FOMC minutes. This pushed U.S. 2-year Treasury yields higher and weighed on interest-rate-sensitive assets, particularly large-cap technology stocks. Initial jobless claims remain low. Concurrently, a steady increase in continuing claims to a multi-year high indicates a deteriorating re-employment landscape.
The sell-off in Taiwan was systemic and broad-based, impacting the electronics sector and key bellwethers like TSMC. The technical damage is notable. The index closed near its session low on high volume. Key momentum indicators turned definitively weak. The market entered a period of consolidation after the shock. Short-term market direction depends on external events, primarily the forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
The TAIEX appears technically vulnerable and requires a multi-day stabilization period. Expect continued volatility. The immediate market focus is on Powell's commentary, Nvidia's upcoming earnings, and U.S. semiconductor policy developments. This raises key questions for your portfolio regarding exposure to high-beta assets versus high-performing, liquid, large-cap stocks in secular growth themes like AI, robotics, and high-speed transmission.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends
Today's report examines currencies and commodities. Trends in these asset classes are moving in different directions. Key currencies are strengthening against the Taiwan Dollar, while different parts of the commodity complex show different trends. Industrial metals show a sharp deterioration. Precious metals and digital assets show sustained strength. This signals selective risk positioning by investors.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The currency market shows broad strengthening against the Taiwan Dollar. The trends for the U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan both improved from neutral to positive over the last week. The Euro and Canadian Dollar maintained their stable positive trends. The Japanese Yen held its neutral stance. This pattern indicates a relative weakening of the TWD against major global currencies.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Significant trend differences define the commodity complex. The trend for Industrial Metals deteriorated sharply from strongly positive to negative, a key bearish signal for global growth expectations. Energy Commodities remain in a strongly negative trend. Precious Metals and Digital Assets held their positive trends. This suggests a flight to alternative stores of value. Agricultural Commodities were stable with a neutral trend.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。