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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】鮑爾鴿派訊號點燃美股漲勢，市場鞏固降息預期
風險偏好回歸，輝達財報公布前，台股科技股有望開高
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月22日 美東時間
摘要
- 隨著聯準會主席鮑爾在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)年會的鴿派談話，鞏固了市場對九月降息的預期，美國市場飆升至歷史新高。
- 此波漲勢基礎廣泛，對利率敏感的週期性類股和小型股表現突出，預示著市場已果斷轉向風險偏好的態勢。
- 因貨幣寬鬆的可能性增加，美國公債殖利率曲線全面下滑。
- 鮑爾明確承認近期疲弱的勞動市場數據，此舉抵銷了本週稍早強勁的製造業PMI報告的影響。
- 此一主導性的總經事件是聯準會的政策轉向，使市場焦點從通膨轉向就業市場的下行風險。
市場的主要驅動因素，在於聯準會釋出了支持九月降息的明確訊號。聯準會主席鮑爾在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)年會的評論，消除了近期的不確定性，釋放了美國資產的風險偏好漲勢，並為全球股市設定了建設性的基調。這為昨日反彈已展現技術面韌性的台灣市場，提供了顯著的順風。
美國市場的反應相當明確。道瓊工業平均指數創下歷史新高，價值型與週期性股票也同時表現突出。此波漲勢並非狹隘的，而是一次基礎廣泛的上揚，顯示投資者的高度信心。跨資產訊號也證實了此一走勢：美國公債殖利率和美元雙雙下跌，而市場隱含的九月降息機率已朝80%邁進。市場對鮑爾談話的此番解讀，已蓋過了本週稍早多空交錯的經濟數據。
此一總經轉變對台灣有利。台股加權指數(TAIEX)昨日在顯著的外資淨賣超下仍能收復失地，顯示出強勁的國內支撐力道。隨著聯準會的轉向得到確認，外資流出的逆轉以及對台灣科技導向指數重燃的興趣，是合乎邏輯的預期。其基本面論述依然完整，由AI應用持續的需求所帶動的七月份創紀錄外銷訂單即是明證。
總經環境的陰霾已散，但市場焦點現已轉向企業的執行力。下週輝達(NVIDIA)的財報，將是AI生態系面臨的關鍵考驗。鑑於輝達(NVIDIA)高達$4.2兆美元的估值，以及市場對生成式AI投資獲利能力的審視日益嚴格，其業績將是足以撼動市場的重大催化劑。台股加權指數(TAIEX)的短期展望正向，但投資者應預期在輝達(NVIDIA)財報發布前後，市場波動將會加劇。這為投資者的投資組合帶來了關鍵問題：如何在AI、印刷電路板(PCB)和高速傳輸供應鏈中，績效優異的大型龍頭股之間進行佈局。
週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢
美國和台灣的ETF市場呈現出對比鮮明的訊號。美國最大型的ETF展現出強勁而穩定的動能。台灣市場則出現明顯分歧：市值加權型ETF的正向趨勢有所趨緩，而高股息策略則進一步惡化，顯示投資者偏好正從收益型資產中轉移。
圖表一：美國資產管理規模前五大ETF (以美元計價)
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
按資產管理規模計，美國最大型的ETF呈現穩定的圖像。Vanguard S&P 500 ETF、SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust、iShares Core S&P 500 ETF、Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF，以及Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1，均維持其前一週的強勢正向趨勢。這預示著美國股市存在廣泛且持續的正向動能。
圖表二：台灣資產管理規模主要ETF (以新台幣計價)
- 元大台灣50 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 元大高股息 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
- 國泰永續高股息 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
- 群益台灣精選高息 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 富邦台50 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
台灣ETF市場浮現明顯的對比。大盤市值型的基金，如元大台灣50和富邦台50，其趨勢均從強勢正向趨緩為正向。高股息策略則表現不佳，元大高股息和國泰永續高股息的趨勢，雙雙從負向惡化為強烈負向。群益台灣精選高息的趨勢則穩定維持在強烈負向，確認了此一類股的疲弱態勢。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Powell's Dovish Signal Ignites U.S. Rally; Rate Cut Expectations Solidify
Risk-On Sentiment Returns, Positioning Taiwan's Tech Sector for a Positive Open Ahead of Key NVIDIA Earnings
By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/22/2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets surged to new highs as Fed Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole remarks solidified expectations for a September rate cut.
- The rally was broad. Rate-sensitive cyclicals and small-caps outperformed, signaling a decisive shift to a risk-on posture.
- U.S. Treasury yields declined across the curve, a response to the increased probability of monetary easing.
- Powell's explicit acknowledgment of recent soft labor market data neutralized a strong manufacturing PMI report from earlier in the week.
- The dominant macro event is the Federal Reserve's policy pivot, shifting market focus from inflation to downside employment risks.
The primary market driver is the Federal Reserve's unambiguous signal favoring a September interest rate cut. Fed Chair Powell's commentary at Jackson Hole resolved near-term uncertainty, unleashing a risk-on rally in U.S. assets and setting a constructive tone for global equities. This provides a significant tailwind for the Taiwanese market, which already demonstrated technical resilience with yesterday's rebound.
The reaction in U.S. markets was definitive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new highs, accompanied by outperformance from value and cyclical stocks. The advance was not narrow, but a broad-based move indicating high investor conviction. Cross-asset signals confirmed the move. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both declined as the market-implied probability of a September rate cut moved toward 80%. This interpretation of Powell’s remarks superseded mixed economic data from earlier in the week.
This macro shift is positive for Taiwan. The TAIEX's recovery yesterday, despite significant foreign net selling, pointed to strong domestic support. With the Fed pivot confirmed, a reversal of foreign outflows and renewed appetite for Taiwan's tech-centric index are logical expectations. The fundamental narrative remains intact, underscored by record-high July export orders driven by sustained demand for AI applications.
The macro environment has cleared, but focus now sharpens on corporate execution. Next week's earnings report from NVIDIA represents a critical test for the AI ecosystem. Given NVIDIA's $4.2 trillion valuation and rising scrutiny over the profitability of generative AI investments, the results are a significant, market-moving catalyst. The short-term TAIEX outlook is positive. You should anticipate heightened volatility surrounding the NVIDIA release. This raises a key question for your portfolio: how to position within high-performing, large-cap leaders in the AI, PCB, and high-speed transmission supply chains.
Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends
U.S. and Taiwanese ETF markets show contrasting signals. The largest U.S. ETFs demonstrate strong and stable momentum. Taiwan's market shows a clear split. The positive trends for market-cap weighted ETFs moderated. High-dividend strategies deteriorated further, indicating a shift in investor preference away from income-focused assets.
Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The largest U.S. ETFs by assets under management show a stable picture. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF, and Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 all maintained their strongly positive trends from the prior week. This signals broad and sustained positive momentum across the U.S. equity market.
Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)
- Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A clear contrast emerged in the Taiwanese ETF market. The broad market-cap funds, Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF, both saw their trends ease from strongly positive to positive. High-dividend strategies are underperforming. Both the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and the Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF deteriorated from negative to strongly negative. The Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF trend remained stable at strongly negative, confirming the weakness in this segment.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。