【Joe’s華爾街脈動】關鍵利空消除，為台股上攻奠定基礎

鴿派聯準會言論與台積電的澄清提供雙重順風，週三輝達財報成AI供應鏈焦點

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月25日 美東時間

摘要

• 在全球市場處理聯準會的鴿派轉向，以及台積電(TSMC)股權疑慮消除這兩大利多催化劑的同時，美國市場呈現出戰術性的謹慎背景。
• 在輝達(NVIDIA)的關鍵財報公布前，美國股市在平靜的交易日中收低。台灣股市在上週的拋售後，目前有望迎來反彈。
• 美國公債殖利率微升至4.28%，但仍遠低於近期高點，因固定收益市場已反應年底前聯準會將降息兩次。
• 本週的美國個人消費支出(PCE)通膨數據是下一個關鍵發布，但其市場影響力因聯準會已明確釋出即將調整政策的訊號而有所減弱。
• 台積電董事長魏哲家明確的聲明，證實美國政府不會取得股權，解決了半導體產業一個主要的不確定性來源。

台灣半導體產業一個關鍵利空的消除，加上日益鴿派的美國聯準會，為台灣的股票資產創造了一個建設性的背景。台股加權指數(TAIEX)上週570點的修正，是由現已消散的、對美國政府可能入股台積電(TSMC)的擔憂所驅動。隨著魏哲家董事長的直接澄清消除了此一不確定性，市場已為朝向24,000點關卡的技術性走勢掃除障礙。昨日美國股市的輕微回檔是次要的，在全球投資者等待本週主要事件之際，市場出現了合乎邏輯的暫歇。

美國市場展現了典型的財報公布前的盤整格局，指數小幅收低。此一價格走勢並非疲弱的訊號，而是週三輝達(NVIDIA)財報公布前的謹慎佈局。此份報告是對AI投資週期持久性的一次公投，市場共識預期其每股盈餘(EPS)將年增49%。一份強勁的前景展望，對於驗證整個AI供應鏈(高度集中於台灣)當前的估值至關重要。此一事件，正發生在一個強健的美國財報季背景之下：標普500指數第二季的成長預估已被大幅上修至10.5%，為市場提供了堅實的基本面基礎。

總體經濟環境提供了順風。聯準會主席鮑爾在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)年會的評論，鞏固了市場對九月降息的預期，期貨市場反應的機率高達91%。較低的借貸成本，對企業利潤和風險性資產無疑是具有支撐作用的。此一全球流動性的推力，正逢台股加權指數(TAIEX)來到技術性的轉折點。在跌破月線後，指數現在必須展現收復該水位的力道。若能果斷地重回月線之上，且5日和10日移動平均線轉為上揚，將可確認此波短期修正已告結束。

今日的盤勢展望正向，而本週的最終走向則取決於輝達(NVIDIA)。預期在台積電(TSMC)議題解決的帶動下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)將會開高。一份強勁的輝達報告，將成為整個科技產業的關鍵催化劑，從AI伺服器、高速傳輸概念股到PCB供應鏈皆然；反之，一份令人失望的報告，將為市場注入顯著的波動性，並觸發一段高檔盤整期。無論在哪種情境下，選股策略仍優於對大盤的曝險。投資者的投資組合，應著重於AI、機器人和能源等領域中，績效優異的大型權值股及題材領導者。

週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢

美國市場正展現廣泛的強勢，主要指數趨勢皆有所改善。如道瓊和羅素2000指數的強勢所示，此波漲勢已變得較不集中。在超大型科技龍頭股中，投資者在個股層面上則變得更具選擇性。

圖表一：美國股市指數 (以美元計價)

• 道瓊工業平均指數 (代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 標普500指數 (代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 那斯達克綜合指數 (代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 羅素2000指數 (代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 費城半導體指數 (代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲

美股的上漲動能已有所擴大。道瓊工業平均指數的趨勢增強為強勢正向，與同樣有所改善的羅素2000指數的訊號相呼應。這表明投資者的信心正從最大的成長股向外延伸。標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數均維持其強勢正向趨勢。費城半導體指數則保持其正向狀態，證實了市場穩固偏多的背景。

圖表二：美國前五大企業 (以美元計價)

• 輝達 (NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 微軟 (Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 蘋果 (Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: --, 一週前: --
• 亞馬遜 (Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
• Meta Platforms (META): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲

超大型科技股之間的趨勢呈現顯著的轉變。輝達(NVIDIA)仍是明確的領導者，維持其強勢正向的趨勢。微軟(Microsoft)和Meta Platforms也穩定地維持其正向趨勢。一個值得注意的變化發生在亞馬遜(Amazon.com)，其趨勢從正向惡化為中性，加入了同樣維持中性的蘋果(Apple)行列。這預示著市場正日益對主要指數的頂尖成分股進行區別對待。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Key Overhangs Removed, Setting Stage for TAIEX Push

Dovish Fed commentary and TSMC clarification provide twin tailwinds, placing Wednesday's NVIDIA report in sharp focus for the AI supply chain.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/25/2025

Executive Summary

• Global markets process two bullish catalysts, a dovish Federal Reserve pivot and the removal of the TSMC equity overhang, against a backdrop of tactical caution in U.S. markets.
• U.S. equities closed lower in a quiet session ahead of NVIDIA's critical earnings report. Taiwan is now positioned for a possible rebound following last week's sell-off.
• U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher to 4.28% but remain well off recent peaks as fixed-income markets price in two Fed rate cuts before year-end.
• This week's U.S. PCE inflation data is the next key release, though its market impact is mitigated by the Fed's clear signal of a forthcoming policy adjustment.
• TSMC Chairman Wei Zhejia's definitive statement, confirming the U.S. government will not take an equity stake, resolves a major source of uncertainty for the semiconductor sector.

The removal of a critical overhang for Taiwan's semiconductor industry, coupled with an increasingly dovish U.S. Federal Reserve, creates a constructive backdrop for your Taiwanese equity holdings. Last week's 570-point correction in the TAIEX was driven by now-dispelled concerns over a potential U.S. government stake in TSMC. With Chairman Wei Zhejia's direct clarification eliminating this uncertainty, the market is cleared for a technical move toward the 24,000 level. The minor pullback in U.S. stocks yesterday is secondary. A logical pause occurred as global investors await the week's main event.

U.S. markets exhibited classic pre-earnings consolidation, with indices finishing modestly lower. This price action is not a signal of weakness but prudent positioning ahead of NVIDIA's results on Wednesday. This report is a referendum on the durability of the AI investment cycle, with consensus expecting a 49% YoY increase in EPS. A strong outlook is essential to validate current valuations across the entire AI supply chain, which is heavily concentrated in Taiwan. This occurs within a robust U.S. earnings season. S&P 500 Q2 growth estimates have been revised sharply higher to 10.5%, providing a solid fundamental foundation for the broader market.

The macro environment provides a tailwind. Fed Chair Powell's commentary from the Jackson Hole symposium has cemented market expectations for a September rate cut, with futures pricing a 91% probability. Lower borrowing costs are unequivocally supportive for corporate profits and risk assets. This global liquidity impulse arrives as the TAIEX reaches a technical inflection point. After falling below its monthly moving average, the index must now demonstrate the strength to reclaim the level. A decisive move back above the monthly line, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages turning upward, will confirm the short-term correction is complete.

The outlook for the trading day is positive, while the week's ultimate direction hinges on NVIDIA. Expect TAIEX to open higher, driven by the resolution of the TSMC issue. A strong NVIDIA report will act as a key catalyst for the entire tech sector, from AI server and high-speed transmission names to the PCB supply chain. A disappointing report from NVIDIA will inject significant volatility and trigger a period of high-level consolidation. In either scenario, a stock-selection approach remains superior to broad market exposure. A focus on high-performing large-cap names and thematic leaders in AI, robotics, and energy is warranted for your portfolio.

Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Company Trends

The U.S. market is exhibiting broad strength, with key indices improving week-over-week. The rally is becoming less concentrated, as shown by the strength in the Dow and Russell 2000. Investors are becoming more selective at the individual company level among mega-cap technology leaders.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

The upward momentum in U.S. equities has broadened. The trend for the Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened to strongly positive, mirroring the signal from the Russell 2000 Index, which also improved. This suggests investor confidence is extending beyond the largest growth names. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite both maintained their strongly positive trends. The PHLX Semiconductor Index held its positive status, confirming the solidly bullish market backdrop.

Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)

• NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
• Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

Trends among mega-cap technology stocks show notable shifts. NVIDIA Corp remains the clear leader, holding its strongly positive trend. Microsoft Corp and Meta Platforms Inc also held stable with positive trends. A notable change occurred with Amazon.com Inc. Its trend deteriorated from positive to neutral, joining Apple Inc which remains neutral. This signals a market increasingly differentiating between the top components of the major indices.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。