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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國政治壓力衝擊債市，科技股實力則拉抬股市
聯準會政策疑慮使殖利率曲線趨陡，輝達動能則拉抬股市，為台股後市奠定基調
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月26日 美東時間
摘要
- 聯準會的政治壓力撼動了美國債券市場；同時，由科技股驅動的樂觀情緒則推升了股市。
- 在輝達(NVIDIA)財報公布前，大型美國科技股表現亮眼，帶動股市上漲，羅素2000指數(Russell 2000)則預示市場領導地位正在擴大。
- 市場擔憂聯準會未來的政策路徑，長天期公債殖利率因而上升，導致5年期與30年期公債(5s30s)的殖利率曲線陡峭程度創下2021年以來之最。
- 美國經濟報告顯示，耐久財的商業投資強勁，但房市持續疲弱，消費者信心則下滑。
- 美國政府解職聯準會理事的舉動，為市場帶來了顯著的不確定性，並引發了一場可能對央行獨立性與通膨產生長期影響的法律挑戰。
對美國聯準會日益升高的政治壓力，在美國資本市場中引發了兩種截然不同的反應。川普宣布解職聯準會理事庫克(Lisa Cook)，為美國長天期公債市場注入了新一層的不確定性。投資者正在為聯準會組成改變，可能導致政策失誤及長期通膨升高的風險進行定價。30年期公債的拋售，以及隨之而來的殖利率曲線趨陡，正預示著此一不斷增長的通膨預期。對投資者而言，這帶來了一個問題：投資組合應如何佈局，以應對一段持續較高的通膨時期？
與此同時，股票市場則展現出持續的強勢。主要美國指數走高，科技產業，特別是輝達(NVIDIA)，在其關鍵財報公布前動能強勁。此一對科技股的熱情，尤其是在AI和機器人領域，對台灣市場而言是直接的正向訊號。輝達執行長近期關於新產品以及對台積電(TSMC)依賴的評論，已為相關股票(從半導體到機器人)的漲勢助燃。小型股羅素2000指數(Russell 2000)的強勁表現，也支持了市場漲勢正在擴散的論述，這是整體市場健康的建設性跡象。
展望台灣市場，環境處於高檔盤整，選股策略至關重要。來自美國科技股的正向情緒，特別是圍繞AI、蘋果(Apple)即將到來的產品週期以及機器人等，提供了明確的題材性順風。即將在九月登場的半導體展和航太暨國防工業展，將使市場焦點得以延續。在美國政治事件演變的同時，全球科技週期仍然是台灣股市的主導驅動因素。此一環境將使投資者的焦點，集中在AI、高速運算及蘋果供應鏈等關鍵主題中，定位良好、績效優異的大型權值股上。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣股市趨勢
今日的焦點轉向亞洲股市，區域指數普遍展現強勢。然而，深入觀察台灣最大型的企業，則揭示出分歧的表現，預示著投資者正根據特定的催化劑和逆風，對頂尖科技權值股進行高度的區別對待。
圖表一：區域股市指數 (以美元計價)
- 台灣 (代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 香港 (代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 新加坡 (代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 日本 (代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 南韓 (代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
亞洲主要股市的量化趨勢訊號維持穩固的正向。香港、新加坡和日本的趨勢均維持其強勢正向的狀態，顯示在這些關鍵市場中，投資者的信心持續。南韓則守住其正向趨勢。台灣的趨勢則從強勢正向略為惡化至正向，暗示動能稍有趨緩，但前景依舊具建設性。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業 (以新台幣計價)
- 台積電 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 鴻海精密 (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, 2317): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 聯發科 (MediaTek Inc, 2454): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc, 2382): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 台達電 (Delta Electronics Inc, 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
台灣龍頭企業之間的表現分歧。台積電和台達電雙雙維持其強勢正向的趨勢，證實了其領導地位。鴻海精密的趨勢則從強勢正向惡化為正向。聯發科穩定維持中性趨勢。最顯著的訊號來自廣達電腦，其維持著強烈負向趨勢，顯示持續性的逆風與投資者的規避。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Political Pressure Hits Bonds as Tech Strength Lifts Equities
Fed Policy Questions Steepen Yield Curve While NVIDIA Momentum Lifts Stocks, Setting the Stage for Taiwanese Markets
By Joe 盧, CFA | August 26, 2025
Executive Summary
- Political pressure on the Federal Reserve rattled the U.S. bond market, while separate tech-driven optimism propelled equities higher.
- Large-cap U.S. stocks advanced, led by technology sector performance ahead of NVIDIA's earnings, with the Russell 2000 signaling a broadening of market leadership.
- Long-dated Treasury yields rose on concerns about the Fed's future policy path, causing the 5s30s yield curve to steepen to its widest point since 2021.
- U.S. economic reports showed robust business investment in durable goods alongside persistent weakness in the housing market and a decline in consumer confidence.
- The administration's move to remove a Federal Reserve Governor introduces significant uncertainty, setting up a legal challenge with long-term implications for central bank independence and inflation.
Escalating political pressure on the Federal Reserve created two separate reactions in U.S. capital markets. The attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook injected a new layer of uncertainty into the long end of the U.S. Treasury market. Investors are pricing in the risk that a change in the Fed's composition will lead to policy errors and higher inflation over the long term. A sell-off in 30-year bonds and the consequent steepening of the yield curve signal this growing inflation expectation. For an investor, this raises the question of how a portfolio is positioned for a sustained period of higher inflation.
At the same time, equity markets displayed continued strength. The major U.S. indices moved higher, with momentum in the technology sector, particularly NVIDIA, ahead of its critical earnings report. This enthusiasm for tech, especially in AI and robotics, is a direct positive signal for the Taiwanese market. Recent comments from NVIDIA's CEO about new products and the reliance on TSMC have already fueled a rally in related stocks, from semiconductors to robotics. The strong performance of the Russell 2000 small-cap index supports a narrative of a broadening market rally, a constructive sign for overall market health.
Looking ahead for the Taiwanese market, the environment is one of high-level consolidation where stock selection is paramount. The positive sentiment from U.S. tech, particularly surrounding AI, Apple's upcoming product cycle, and robotics, provides clear thematic tailwinds. The upcoming semiconductor and aerospace exhibitions in September will sustain this focus. While U.S. political events unfold, the global technology cycle remains the dominant driver for Taiwanese equities. This environment places the focus for investors on well-positioned, high-performance large-cap names within key themes like AI, high-speed computing, and the Apple supply chain.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today's focus shifts to Asian equities, where regional indices exhibit broad strength. A closer look at Taiwan's largest companies reveals varied performance, signaling that investors are differentiating heavily among the top technology names based on specific catalysts and headwinds.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The quantitative trend signals for major Asian equity markets remain firmly positive. The trends for Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan all maintained their strongly positive status, indicating sustained investor confidence across these key markets. South Korea held its positive trend. The trend in Taiwan deteriorated slightly from strongly positive to positive, suggesting a minor moderation in momentum but still a constructive outlook.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Performance among Taiwan's leading companies is varied. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd and Delta Electronics Inc both maintained their strongly positive trends, confirming their leadership status. The trend for Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd deteriorated from strongly positive to positive. MediaTek Inc remained stable with a neutral trend. The most significant signal is from Quanta Computer Inc, which held its strongly negative trend, indicating persistent headwinds and investor aversion.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。