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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】輝達財報前市場屏息以待，聯準會政治壓力成隱憂
標普500指數創高，與那斯達克分歧，殖利率曲線趨陡釋出警訊
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月27日 美東時間
摘要
- 在全球市場等待科技指標股輝達(NVIDIA)的關鍵財報之際，市場呈現多空交錯但謹慎的基調。
- 標普500指數創下歷史新高，但那斯達克指數相對滯後，顯示在關鍵科技產業消息公布前，市場存在選擇性觀望。
- 美國殖利率曲線趨陡，短天期殖利率因降息預期而下跌，長天期殖利率則因對聯準會政治壓力的擔憂而持平。
- 台灣強勁的七月份工業與製造業生產數據，證實了由AI驅動的需求週期依然強健。
- 川普政府加強對聯準會人事任命的審查，特別是免職理事庫克(Lisa Cook)的舉動，為貨幣政策審議帶來了新的政治風險。
核心關鍵在於，市場正處於一個關鍵的轉折點，等待著輝達(NVIDIA)的季度業績來驗證強大且昂貴的人工智慧(AI)論述。美國股市指數收高，標普500指數創下新紀錄。然而，明顯的分歧清晰可見，以科技股為中心的那斯達克指數仍低於近期高點，預示著投資者集中的憂慮。此一市場的暫歇，正逢消化衝擊聯準會獨立性觀感的政治操作之際，為風險性資產創造了複雜的多空拉鋸。
此一緊張關係在美國公債市場中表現得最為明顯。趨於陡峭的殖利率曲線揭示了分歧的情緒：短天期債券殖利率在聯準會官員暗示可能於九月降息的鴿派訊號下正在下降，而長天期殖利率則維持在高位。此一動態反映了投資者的擔憂，即對央行持續的政治壓力，包含一場前所未有的、免職現任理事的企圖，可能損害其長期的政策完整性。與此同時，對印度加徵的新關稅，也為全球貿易格局注入了另一個地緣政治風險因素。
對台灣而言，最直接的影響集中在輝達(NVIDIA)的報告上。台股加權指數(TAIEX)表現良好，收在歷史新高，並受到由全球AI需求驅動的、基本面強勁的工業生產成長所支撐。在關鍵美國夥伴將釋出正向展望的預期下，由台積電(TSMC)領軍的AI相關股票應聲上漲。然而，近期櫃買指數(TPEx)中小型股的突出表現，呈現出量價背離的跡象，這是一個技術性警訊，預示著在沒有強力催化劑的情況下，動能可能正在減弱。
展望未來，市場對輝達(NVIDIA)業績及其關鍵前景展望的反應，將決定美國科技股和整個台灣電子供應鏈的短期方向。儘管台灣的國內基本面穩固，且鴿派的聯準會提供了支撐，但AI的投資論述需要不斷的驗證。今日的報告將提供下一個主要的數據點，以決定目前的市場高點是否合理，或者是否需要進行重新評估。
週三資產焦點：美國宏觀經濟與債券趨勢
今日的分析揭示了一個複雜的經濟背景和一個分歧的債券市場。美國關鍵經濟指標顯示，通膨和投資存續期間有所改善，但消費者信心卻持續疲弱。此一分歧也同樣反映在美國公債市場中，短天期公債的強勢正向趨勢，與殖利率曲線長天期端的負向趨勢形成鮮明對比，預示著一個明顯的趨陡動態。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
投資存續期間: 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
企業獲利: 當前: --, 一週前: --
通貨膨脹: 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
美元資金流向: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
消費者信心: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
投資存續期間的趨勢已改善為中性，而通膨訊號則在上週為負向後轉為正向。企業獲利維持穩定的中性趨勢。然而，這被美元資金流向和消費者信心的持續疲弱所抵銷，兩者均維持其負向狀態，顯示在更廣泛的經濟中存在特定的隱憂領域。
圖表二：美國債券市場 (以美元計價)
1-3年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
3-7年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
7-10年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
10-20年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
20年期以上美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
明顯的分歧定義了美國債券市場。1-3年期美國公債和3-7年期美國公債的趨勢穩定維持在強勢正向的狀態，而7-10年期美國公債的趨勢也同樣穩定維持正向。與此形成鮮明對比的是，10-20年期美國公債和20年期以上美國公債的趨勢，均穩定維持在負向狀態。這表明市場在殖利率曲線的短天期端具有強烈信心，而在長天期資產方面則顯現出顯著的疲弱。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Markets Brace for NVIDIA's AI Verdict as Political Pressure on Fed Mounts
S&P 500 Hits New High, But Divergence with Nasdaq Signals Caution as Yield Curve Steepens
By Joe 盧, CFA | August 28, 2025
Executive Summary
- Global markets exhibited a mixed but cautious tone as investors awaited a pivotal earnings report from technology bellwether NVIDIA.
- The S&P 500 posted a new record high, though a lagging Nasdaq indicates underlying selectivity ahead of critical technology sector news.
- The U.S. yield curve steepened as short-term yields fell on rate cut expectations while long-term yields held firm amidst concerns over political pressure on the Federal Reserve.
- Taiwan’s strong July industrial and manufacturing production data confirms the AI-driven demand cycle remains robust.
- The Trump administration's increased scrutiny over Federal Reserve appointments, highlighted by the move to fire Governor Lisa Cook, introduces a new layer of political risk to monetary policy deliberations.
The bottom line is that the market is at a critical inflection point, awaiting validation of the powerful, and expensive, Artificial Intelligence narrative from NVIDIA's quarterly results. U.S. equity indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 achieving a new record. However, a clear divergence is evident as the technology-centric Nasdaq remains below its recent peak, signaling focused investor apprehension. This pause comes as the market digests political maneuvers impacting the Federal Reserve's perceived independence, creating a complex cross-current for risk assets.
This tension is most visible in the U.S. Treasury market. A steepening yield curve reveals a split sentiment: shorter-term bond yields are declining on dovish signals from Fed officials hinting at a potential September rate cut, while longer-term yields remain elevated. This dynamic reflects investor concern that ongoing political pressure on the central bank, including an unprecedented attempt to dismiss a sitting governor, could compromise its long-term policy integrity. Concurrently, new tariffs imposed on India inject another element of geopolitical risk into the global trade landscape.
For Taiwan, the immediate implications are centered on the NVIDIA report. The TAIEX has been performing well, closing at a record high and buoyed by fundamentally strong industrial production growth driven by global AI demand. AI-related stocks, led by TSMC, rallied in anticipation of a positive outlook from their key American partner. However, the recent outperformance of small and medium-sized stocks on the TPEx index shows signs of a volume-price divergence, a technical warning that momentum could be waning without a strong catalyst.
Looking ahead, the market reaction to NVIDIA’s results and, crucially, its forward guidance will dictate near-term direction for both U.S. tech and the entire Taiwanese electronics supply chain. While domestic fundamentals in Taiwan are solid and a dovish Fed is supportive, the AI thesis requires constant validation. Tonight's report will provide the next major data point, determining whether the current market altitude is justified or if a reassessment is in order.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic Indicators & Bond Trends
Today's analysis reveals a complex economic backdrop and a divided bond market. Key U.S. economic indicators show signs of improvement in inflation and investment duration, yet persistent weakness in consumer strength. This divergence is mirrored in the U.S. Treasury market, where strong positive trends in short-term bonds contrast sharply with negative trends at the long end of the curve, signaling a distinct steepening dynamic.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Inflation: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The trend for Investment Duration has improved to neutral, while the Inflation signal has turned positive after being negative last week. Corporate Earnings remain stable with a neutral trend. However, this is offset by continued weakness in both Currency Flow (into USD) and Consumer Strength, which both maintained their negative status, indicating specific areas of concern within the broader economy.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
A clear divergence defines the U.S. bond market. The trends for 1-3 Year US Treasuries and 3-7 Year US Treasuries held stable at a strongly positive status, while the trend for 7-10 Year US Treasuries also remained stable and positive. In stark contrast, the trends for 10-20 Year US Treasuries and 20+ Year US Treasuries both held stable at a negative status. This indicates strong conviction at the short end of the curve and pronounced weakness in long-duration assets.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。