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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】輝達強勁財報難掩深層隱憂
美股財報創高，盤後交易卻顯謹慎；類股輪動成關鍵，台股高檔盤整
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月28日 美東時間
摘要
- 美國股市在輝達(NVIDIA)財報的帶動下創下歷史新高，但該股在盤後因資料中心營收不如預期而下跌，使市場焦點轉向其成長的可持續性。
- 在主要交易時段，市場普遍呈現風險偏好情緒，通訊和能源類股表現突出，而防禦性的公用事業和必需消費品類股則相對落後。
- 美國10年期公債殖利率回落，預示儘管經濟數據強勁，債券市場仍預期聯準會將在今年稍晚降息。
- 美國第二季GDP成長率的第二次估計值上修至3.3%，且初請領失業金人數維持在低位，描繪出一幅具韌性的經濟圖像。
- 地緣政治緊張局勢成為市場因素之一，美國對印度加徵的50%新關稅生效，以及俄羅斯對烏克蘭的空襲，皆助長了西德州中級原油(WTI)價格的上漲。
市場的焦點正從對AI的廣泛熱情，轉向對可持續成長的具體細節。標普500指數攻上歷史新高，反映出輝達(NVIDIA)總體盈收與營收均優於預期的強勁表現。然而，輝達股價在盤後因資料中心營收未達預期而下跌，正預示著此一關鍵性的轉變。此一細微之處，是今日投資者最重要的結論。它帶來了一個問題：AI產業中，持久的成長將從何而來？
美國經濟的潛在實力持續為股市提供了穩健支撐。第二季實質GDP成長率的上修，以及持續處於低檔的初請領失業金人數，都突顯了經濟的韌性。然而，債券市場卻呈現出不同的景象：10年期公債殖利率的下滑暗示，固定收益投資者正在為聯準會未來的降息進行定價，預期通膨將持續降溫。此一動態一直對股市有利，但若通膨出現意外的走強，則可能暴露市場的脆弱性。
對台灣市場而言，其影響是直接的。在市場對輝達(NVIDIA)業績的看漲預期下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)收在歷史新高，由台積電(TSMC)及其他AI相關個股領軍上攻。輝達在盤後的疲弱走勢，暗示本地股市現已準備進入一段高檔盤整期，而非持續的急劇拉升。台灣關鍵產業的基本面驅動因素依然存在，特別是台積電(TSMC)正推進其1.4奈米製程，以及蘋果(Apple)預計在九月發布的新iPhone。
展望未來，市場已準備好迎接一場領導地位的考驗。資金良性輪動至蘋果供應鏈、高速傳輸和軍工科技等不同題材的趨勢應會持續。從輝達報告中得到的關鍵啟示並非AI趨勢的結束，而是此趨勢內的領導地位正在收窄。市場焦點現已轉向特定的成長驅動因素，例如資料中心對液冷散熱日益增長的需求，這將有利於相關的台灣供應鏈。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
今日報告檢視貨幣與大宗商品。數據顯示，大宗商品綜合指數出現顯著改善，工業與農業原料重新展現強勢。在外匯方面，主要貨幣兌新台幣維持其正向趨勢，其中日圓出現明顯改善。
圖表一：貨幣 (以新台幣計價)
- 美元 (貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 歐元 (貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 日圓 (貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: –
- 人民幣 (貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 加幣 (貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
過去一週，日圓的量化趨勢從中性轉強為正向。美元、歐元、人民幣和加幣則均維持其穩定的正向趨勢，顯示其兌新台幣的持續強勢。
圖表二：大宗商品 (以美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 農業類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: –
- 工業金屬 (代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
- 貴金屬 (代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- 數位資產 (代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
大宗商品領域普遍可見基礎廣泛的改善。能源類大宗商品的動能有所改善，但整體趨勢仍為負向。農業類大宗商品、工業金屬和貴金屬的趨勢均有所改善。相較之下，數位資產的趨勢則從正向惡化為中性，預示著短期動能的流失。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
NVIDIA's Strong Earnings Mask Deeper Questions
U.S. markets reach new highs on headline earnings, but after-hours trading reveals a more cautious outlook. Taiwanese equities are positioned for high-level consolidation as sector rotation becomes critical.
By Joe 盧, CFA | August 28, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. stocks reached a new record high driven by NVIDIA's earnings, but the stock fell after-hours on a data center revenue miss, shifting focus to growth sustainability.
- A clear risk-on sentiment prevailed during the main session, with communication and energy sectors outperforming while defensive utilities and consumer staples lagged.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased, signaling bond market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year despite strong economic data.
- The second estimate for Q2 U.S. GDP was revised higher to 3.3%, and jobless claims remain low, painting a picture of a resilient economy.
- Geopolitical tensions are a factor, as new 50% U.S. tariffs on India take effect and Russian airstrikes in Ukraine contribute to a rise in WTI oil prices.
The market's focus is shifting from broad AI enthusiasm to the specifics of sustainable growth. The S&P 500's ascent to a record high was a direct reaction to NVIDIA's strong headline earnings and revenue beat. Yet, the after-hours decline in NVIDIA's stock, prompted by data center revenue that fell short of expectations, signals this pivotal change. This nuance is the most important conclusion for investors today. It raises the question: where will durable growth come from within the AI sector?
The underlying strength of the U.S. economy provides a robust backdrop for equities. The upward revision in Q2 real GDP growth and consistently low initial jobless claims underscore economic resilience. The bond market tells a different story. The dip in the 10-year Treasury yield suggests fixed-income investors are pricing in future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, anticipating a continued cooling of inflation. This dynamic has been supportive of equities but introduces a vulnerability to any unexpected inflation strength.
For Taiwanese markets, the implications are direct. The TAIEX closed at a record high, buoyed by bullish anticipation of NVIDIA's results, with TSMC and other AI-related stocks leading the charge. NVIDIA's after-hours weakness suggests the local bourse is now poised for a period of high-level consolidation rather than a continued sharp ascent. Fundamental drivers for key Taiwanese sectors remain in place, particularly with TSMC advancing its 1.4nm process and Apple's anticipated iPhone launch in September.
Looking ahead, the market is set for a test of leadership. The benign rotation into various themes like the Apple supply chain, high-speed transmission, and military technology should continue. The key takeaway from NVIDIA's report is not that the AI trend is over, but that leadership within it is narrowing. The focus now shifts to specific growth drivers, such as the increasing demand for liquid cooling in data centers, which stands to benefit the related Taiwanese supply chain.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities Trends
Today's report examines currencies and commodities. The data reveals a notable improvement across the commodity complex, with industrial and agricultural inputs showing renewed strength. In foreign exchange, major currencies are holding their positive trends against the New Taiwan Dollar, with the Japanese Yen showing a distinct improvement.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The quantitative trend for the Japanese Yen strengthened over the past week from neutral to positive. The U.S. Dollar, Euro, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained their stable positive trends, indicating persistent strength against the New Taiwan Dollar.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
A broad-based improvement is evident across the commodities sector. Momentum for Energy Commodities improved, though the overall trend remains negative. The trends for Agricultural Commodities, Industrial Metals, and Precious Metals all improved. In contrast, the trend for Digital Assets deteriorated from positive to neutral, signaling a loss of short-term momentum.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。