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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國海軍部署引發與委內瑞拉對峙，台灣科技股漲勢則創下新高
加勒比海戰雲密布，亞洲科技股飆漲
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月1日
摘要
- 美國海軍部署遭遇委內瑞拉軍隊動員，加勒比海緊張局勢升級。
- 委內瑞拉潛在的供應中斷，對全球石油市場和地緣政治穩定構成重大風險。
- 在AI和半導體產業的強勁投資者樂觀情緒推動下，台灣股市創下歷史新高。
- 儘管出現獲利了結賣壓，資金健康輪動至中小型股，揭示了潛在的市場實力。
- 即將到來的蘋果(Apple)產品發表會和大型國際科技展覽，為市場情緒注入動能。
美國因勞動節休市，不過，上週末美方在加勒比海的大規模軍事部署，已點燃與委內瑞拉的緊張對峙，引發了外界對區域不穩定及全球石油市場潛在衝擊的擔憂。委內瑞拉總統馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)譴責此舉，認為此次海軍的存在是直接威脅，也是一場意圖更迭政權的拙劣掩飾。
美國已派遣一支由七艘戰艦、一艘核動力潛艦及超過4,500名人員組成的部隊，官方宣稱為在委內瑞拉打擊拉丁美洲的販毒集團。此舉之前，華盛頓已將懸賞馬杜羅因毒品恐怖主義指控的線報獎金加倍至5000萬美元。作為回應，馬杜羅已將此次部署標籤為「過去100年來最大的威脅」，並動員了15,000名部隊，宣稱其軍隊已「超級準備好」保衛國家。
此一不斷升級的軍事態勢，對全球石油市場具有重大影響。身為全球已探明石油儲量最大的國家，任何對委內瑞拉航運的干擾或其產量的進一步下滑，都可能為全球油價帶來顯著的風險溢價。海軍部隊的存在威脅到關鍵的航運通道，並危及委內瑞拉部分原油出口的脆弱許可證。在地緣政治上，此場對峙有可能將加勒比海轉變為強權競爭的舞台，委內瑞拉很可能將尋求盟友的支持。
與此同時，在亞洲市場，台灣股市在高檔震盪，主要受惠於圍繞AI和半導體產業的樂觀情緒支撐。加權指數近期一度創下盤中歷史新高，後因短期的獲利了結賣壓而小幅收低。市場動能由蘋果(Apple)的新產品發表會，以及對預計在九月登場的國際半導體展和航太展的期待所驅動。儘管如鴻海(Hon Hai)和聯發科(MediaTek)等部分大型權值股出現下跌，但更廣泛的市場顯示出健康的牛市格局跡象，資金輪動至具潛力的中小型股，顯示市場深度良好。主要外資和法人機構雖為淨賣超方，但分析師認為，只要關鍵支撐位置守穩，指數在不久的將來仍有機會再度挑戰更高點。
週一資產焦點：美國股市指數與前五大美企
週一美國市場休市，然而，美國關鍵科技指數的動能似乎正在放緩。此一發展值得投資者留意，因為更廣泛的市場指數並未顯示類似的疲弱。投資者應評估市場的領導地位是否已開始收窄。
圖表一：美國股市指數 (以美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數 (代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 標準普爾500指數 (代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數 (代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 羅素2000指數 (代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 費城半導體指數 (代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
道瓊工業平均指數和標普500指數的趨勢維持穩定且強勢正向。羅素2000指數也維持其強勢正向的趨勢。相較之下，那斯達克綜合指數的動能有所趨緩，其趨勢從強勢正向轉為正向。費城半導體指數的狀況則有所惡化，其趨勢從正向轉為中性。此資訊指向科技產業出現了特定的放緩現象。
圖表二：美國前五大企業 (以美元計價)
- 輝達 (NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 微軟 (Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 蘋果 (Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 亞馬遜 (Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- Meta Platforms (META): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
對最大型美國企業的回顧，證實了市場選擇性的主題。輝達(NVIDIA)的趨勢動能從強勢正向趨緩為正向，反映了半導體指數的疲弱。亞馬遜(Amazon.com)則觀察到正向轉變，其趨勢從中性改善為正向。微軟(Microsoft)和Meta Platforms均維持其穩定的正向趨勢。蘋果(Apple)的趨勢則維持中性。投資組合的佈局應反映出頂尖科技權值股之間此一表現的分歧。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Naval Deployment Sparks Standoff with Venezuela While Taiwan's Tech-Fueled Stock Market Reaches New Heights
Sabers Rattle in the Caribbean as Tech Stocks Soar in Asia
By Joe 盧, CFA | September 1, 2025
Executive Summary
- Escalates tensions in the Caribbean as a U.S. naval deployment is met by Venezuelan troop mobilization.
- Poses a significant risk to global oil markets and geopolitical stability from potential Venezuelan supply disruptions.
- Drives the Taiwanese stock market to a new record high, fueled by strong investor optimism in the AI and semiconductor sectors.
- Reveals underlying market strength through a healthy rotation of capital into small and mid-cap stocks despite profit-taking.
- Fuels positive market sentiment with upcoming Apple product launches and major international tech exhibitions.
Markets are closed for Labor Day in the United States, however, a significant U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean Sea has ignited a tense standoff with Venezuela, fueling fears of regional instability and potential shocks to global oil markets. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has denounced the naval presence as a direct threat and a thinly veiled attempt at regime change.
The United States has dispatched a force of seven warships, a nuclear-powered submarine, and over 4,500 personnel, officially to combat Latin American drug cartels in Venezuela. This move follows Washington doubling its reward to $50 million for information leading to Maduro's arrest on narco-terrorism charges. In response, Maduro has labeled the deployment the "biggest threat... in the last 100 years" and mobilized 15,000 troops, declaring his military is "super prepared" to defend the nation.
This escalating military posture carries significant implications for oil markets. As one of the holders of the world's largest proven oil reserves, any disruption to Venezuelan shipping or a further decline in its production could introduce a significant risk premium into global oil prices. The presence of naval forces threatens key shipping lanes and jeopardizes the fragile license allowing some exports of Venezuelan crude. Geopolitically, the standoff risks transforming the Caribbean into a theater for great power competition, with Venezuela likely to seek support from allies.
Meanwhile, in Asian markets, Taiwanese stocks fluctuated at a high level, buoyed by optimism around the AI and semiconductor industries. The weighted index set a new intraday record of 24,570 points before closing slightly down at 24,233.10 due to short-term, profit-taking selling pressure. Market momentum was driven by Apple's new product launches and the anticipation of major international semiconductor and aerospace exhibitions scheduled for September. While some large-cap stocks like Hon Hai and MediaTek saw declines, the broader market showed signs of a healthy bull pattern, with funds rotating into promising small and mid-cap stocks, indicating good market depth. Major foreign and institutional investors were net sellers, though analysts believe that as long as key support levels hold, the index has a chance to challenge higher points in the near future.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity Indices & Top 5 U.S. Companies
Markets are closed on Monday, however, it seems as if momentum is slowing in key U.S. technology indices. This development warrants your attention because broader market indices are not showing similar weakness. You should assess if market leadership is beginning to narrow.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
The trends for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index remained stable and strongly positive. The Russell 2000 Index also maintained its strongly positive trend. In contrast, momentum eased for the Nasdaq Composite, which shifted from a strongly positive to a positive trend. Conditions deteriorated for the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Its trend changed from positive to neutral. This information points toward a specific slowdown in the technology sector.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
A review of the largest U.S. companies confirms the theme of selectivity. NVIDIA Corp’s trend momentum eased from strongly positive to positive, reflecting the weakness in the semiconductor index. A positive shift was observed for Amazon.com Inc, where the trend improved from neutral to positive. Microsoft Corp and Meta Platforms Inc both held their stable positive trends. Apple Inc’s trend remained neutral. Your portfolio positioning should reflect this performance differentiation among top technology names.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。