【Joe’s華爾街脈動】關稅裁決帶來逆風，市場重新校準風險

•
美股九月開局守勢，引發台股AI類股獲利了結，技術面轉弱

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月2日 美東時間

摘要

  • 聯邦法院一項不利於近期關稅的裁決帶來了政策不確定性，導致美股下跌、公債價格下跌，使殖利率上揚。
  • 美股方面，科技和工業類股領跌，引發台灣AI相關個股回檔，並將台股加權指數(TAIEX)推落至月線之下。
  • 隨著歐洲通膨微升及財政擔憂再起，公債價格下跌，10年期美國公債殖利率因而攀升至4.27%。
  • 美國製造業數據顯示，標普全球PMI擴張，而ISM PMI則萎縮，此訊號顯示經濟穩定但未加速，使市場更加關注本週的非農就業報告。
  • 川普政府計畫對關稅裁決提出上訴，確保了貿易政策在短期內仍將是市場波動的主要來源。

地緣政治與貿易政策的不確定性，已再次成為主導風險情緒的因素。美國聯邦上訴法院一項不利於政府關稅權力的裁決，為全球貿易動態注入了新一層的模糊性。此一發展蓋過了顯示穩定但未加速的美國製造業報告，導致市場採取風險趨避的態勢。美股回檔，而公債價格下跌使殖利率上揚，美元也同步走強。

在美國，製造業數據值得關注。標普全球(S&P Global) PMI回到擴張區間的53.0，ISM PMI則維持在萎縮區間的48.7。這些報告顯示經濟持穩但未加速，增加了市場對高頻數據的敏感度。即將到來的非農就業報告，現已成為衡量聯準會政策路徑的關鍵數據點，特別是在九月降息機率仍高的情況下。10年期公債殖利率上升至4.27%，反映了此一數據依賴性以及來自歐洲通膨略為走強的外部壓力。

此一由美國引發的不確定性，直接轉化為對台灣股市的獲利了結壓力。在先前領漲的AI類股拋售潮帶動下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)週一跌破了月線。在戴爾(DELL)和邁威爾(Marvell)等美國同業公布了不如預期的財報後，此為合乎邏輯的技術性反應。技術面圖像已轉弱，顯示負向動能正在擴大。主要法人機構的大量淨賣超，證實了市場短期情緒已轉向謹慎。

展望未來，台股加權指數(TAIEX)面臨一段盤整期。市場現在必須消化負面的外部催化劑以及轉弱的技術面格局。台灣的潛在基本面驅動因素依然完整，包括AI的長期成長、國防支出的增加，以及如即將到來的國際半導體展(SEMICON Taiwan)等短期催化劑。投資策略應是利用此波回檔，在具持久性的題材中，選擇性地佈局高品質、流動性佳的大型權值股。當前的市場走勢是對支撐水位的測試，而非基本面的崩壞。

週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣股市趨勢

今日的分析揭示了亞洲市場間分歧的動能。儘管如香港和新加坡等特定區域指數維持強勁動能，其他市場則顯露疲態。此一選擇性在台灣最大型的企業中更為明顯，多數頂尖公司的趨勢皆惡化，預示著投資者情緒的顯著轉變。

圖表一：區域股市指數 (以美元計價)

  • 台灣 (代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
  • 香港 (代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 新加坡 (代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 日本 (代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 南韓 (代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲

關鍵區域指數之間的動能各異。香港和新加坡的趨勢穩定且維持強勢正向。相較之下，台灣的趨勢從正向減弱為中性。日本的動能同樣趨緩，但仍維持正向。南韓的趨勢則穩定。這表明先前該區域一致的強勢格局已出現分裂。

圖表二：台灣前五大企業 (以新台幣計價)

  • 台積電 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, 2330): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 鴻海精密 (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, 2317): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
  • 聯發科 (MediaTek Inc, 2454): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
  • 廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc, 2382): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
  • 台達電 (Delta Electronics Inc, 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

台灣最大型企業普遍呈現轉弱。台積電的趨勢從強勢正向減弱為正向。鴻海精密的趨勢降為中性。聯發科的趨勢則進一步惡化，轉為負向。廣達電腦穩定維持在強烈負向趨勢。台達電是唯一的例外，其強勢正向的趨勢與上週相比，保持穩定。


👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。

📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。

📰追蹤此部落格。

💬LINE好友。

➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。


本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Tariff Ruling Creates Headwind; Markets Recalibrate Risk

U.S. Equities Begin September on the Defensive, Triggering Profit-Taking in TAIEX AI Sector Amid Weakening Technicals

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/02/2025

Executive Summary

  • U.S. equities fell and bond yields rose as a federal court ruling against recent tariffs introduced significant policy uncertainty.
  • Technology and industrial sectors led U.S. market declines, precipitating a pullback in Taiwan's AI-related stocks and pushing the TAIEX below its monthly moving average.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.27% as European inflation ticked higher and fiscal concerns resurfaced.
  • U.S. manufacturing data showed the S&P Global PMI expanding while the ISM PMI contracted, signaling economic stability without acceleration and placing greater focus on this week's non-farm payrolls report.
  • The Trump administration's plan to appeal the tariff ruling ensures trade policy will remain a primary source of market volatility in the near term.

Geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty has reasserted itself as the dominant driver of risk sentiment. A U.S. appeals court ruling against the administration's tariff authority has injected a fresh layer of ambiguity into global trade dynamics. This development overshadowed U.S. manufacturing reports showing stability but not acceleration, leading to a risk-off posture to begin the month. U.S. equities retreated, while bond yields and the U.S. dollar climbed.

In the U.S., manufacturing data warrants attention. The S&P Global PMI returned to expansionary territory at 53.0. The ISM PMI remained in contraction at 48.7. The reports indicate an economy holding firm but not accelerating, increasing the market's sensitivity to high-frequency data. The upcoming non-farm payrolls report is now a critical data point for gauging the Federal Reserve's policy path, especially as the probability of a September rate cut remains elevated. The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.27% reflects this data dependency and external pressures from slightly firmer European inflation.

This U.S.-led uncertainty translated directly into profit-taking pressure on the Taiwan stock market. The TAIEX broke below its monthly moving average on Monday, driven by a sell-off in the previously leading AI sector. This was a logical technical response following underwhelming earnings reports from U.S. counterparts like DELL and Marvell. The technical picture has weakened, showing expanding negative momentum. Substantial net selling by major institutional investor groups confirms a short-term shift toward caution.

Looking ahead, the TAIEX faces a period of consolidation. The market must now digest the negative external catalysts and weakened technical posture. Taiwan's underlying fundamental drivers remain intact, including secular growth in AI, increased national defense spending, and near-term catalysts like the upcoming SEMICON Taiwan exhibition. The investment strategy is to use this pullback to selectively position high-quality, liquid large-caps within durable themes. The current market action is a test of support levels, not a fundamental breakdown.

Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends

Today's analysis reveals varied momentum across Asian markets. While certain regional indices like Hong Kong and Singapore are maintaining strong momentum, others show signs of weakening. This selectivity is more pronounced within Taiwan's largest companies, where the majority of top firms exhibit deteriorating trends, signaling a significant shift in investor sentiment.

Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)

  • Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
  • Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

Momentum varies across key regional indices. The trends for Hong Kong and Singapore are stable and remain strongly positive. In contrast, the trend for Taiwan has deteriorated from positive to neutral. Japan's trend has also deteriorated, though it remains positive. The trend for South Korea is stable. This indicates a fracturing of the previously uniform strength in the region.

Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
  • MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
  • Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
  • Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The landscape for Taiwan's largest companies shows widespread weakening. The trend for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd has deteriorated from strongly positive to positive. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd's trend deteriorated to neutral. MediaTek Inc's trend deteriorated further, shifting to negative. Quanta Computer Inc remains stable in a strongly negative trend. Delta Electronics Inc is the exception, with its strongly positive trend stable week-over-week.


👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.

📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.

📰Follow this blog.

💬Connect with us on LINE.

➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.


This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。