【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國科技股因監管緩解而上漲；台灣股市則進入盤整

2025/09/04

•

對關鍵科技公司有利的法院裁決支撐市場情緒，但萎縮的製造業數據與疲弱的技術面，預示著選擇性的輪動

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月3日美東時間

摘要

全球市場呈現對比趨勢：由特定催化劑驅動的美國科技股強勢，正對照經濟減速的跡象以及台灣股市的盤整。
美國一項對Alphabet和蘋果(Apple)有利的反壟斷裁決，可能為台灣的供應鏈創造催化劑；而台股加權指數(TAI-EX)則顯現技術性疲弱與類股輪動。
美國公債殖利率因勞動市場降溫的跡象而回落，強化了聯準會降息的預期；而長天期殖利率則因全球財政壓力而維持在高位。
美國和台灣的製造業PMI皆處於萎縮區間，證實了持續的工業放緩與謹慎的商業前景。
美國政府撤銷台積電(TSMC)南京廠的「經驗證最終用戶」(Verified End User)資格，為此半導體龍頭帶來了特定的監管逆風。

美國超大型科技股在特定的監管緩解下反彈，掩蓋了更廣泛經濟基本面的持續疲弱。一項美國法院的裁決，允許Alphabet和蘋果(Apple)繼續其搜尋合作夥伴關係，此舉消除了重大的監管隱憂，並可能為台灣以蘋果為中心的供應鏈，創造直接的順風。然而，此一由催化劑驅動的美國市場強勢，與來自美國和台灣的製造業數據背道而馳，該數據預示著持續的萎縮，並支持市場採取謹慎的立場。

債券市場的訊號證實了此一複雜的背景。美國職位空缺減少，強化了對聯準會降息的預期，此一情境對風險性資產有利。但與此同時，長天期美國公債殖利率維持穩定，這反映了全球對主權債務和財政支出的擔憂，此一趨勢在英國、德國和日本也清晰可見。趨於陡峭的殖利率曲線暗示，市場預期短期內政策將走向寬鬆。

在台灣，市場正在近期高點附近進行盤整。台股加權指數(TAIEX)持續測試技術水位且動能正在放緩，指向短期的獲利了結。淨買盤則集中在金融股。展望未來交易日，預期市場將持續波動，且表現將以類股為主。來自美國科技股的正向情緒提供了支撐，但台股加權指數(TAIEX)轉弱的技術面格局，以及來自PMI數據萎縮的逆風，暗示近期高點存在阻力。在下週蘋果(Apple)的產品發表會和國際半導體展之前，市場很可能將在一個區間內波動。此一環境為投資者的投資組合帶來了一個關鍵問題：在一個盤整的市場中，應如何為選擇性的成長進行佈局？

週三資產焦點：美國宏觀經濟與債券市場趨勢

美國的經濟圖像正在轉弱。過去一週，企業獲利和通膨的關鍵指標有所惡化。此一轉變也同樣反映在債券市場，殖利率曲線的不同部分出現分歧走勢：短天期和長天期正失去動能，而中期部分則保持穩定。這預示著資金正流向相對安全的中天期公債。

圖表一：美國宏觀經濟

投資存續期間: 當前: --, 一週前: --
企業獲利: 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
美元資金流向: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
消費者信心: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼

潛在的經濟訊號週比已有所趨緩。企業獲利的趨勢惡化，從中性轉為負向。通膨訊號則從正向轉弱為中性。投資存續期間、美元資金流向和消費者信心則守住其中性或負向的趨勢。這些訊號強化了審慎的總體經濟前景。

圖表二：美國債券市場 (以美元計價)

1-3年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
3-7年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
7-10年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
10-20年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
20年期以上美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼

美國公債殖利率曲線可見到對比鮮明的趨勢。以1-3年期美國公債為代表的曲線短天期端，出現顯著惡化，其趨勢從強勢正向滑落至中性。長天期端，特別是20年期以上美國公債也惡化，從負向轉為強烈負向。曲線的中間部分(3-10年期)則維持穩定。這顯示投資者正在將資金輪動至中天期資產，作為主要的風險趨避部位。

👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。

📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。

📰追蹤此部落格。

💬LINE好友。

➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。

本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Tech Gains on Regulatory Relief; Taiwan Enters Consolidation

A favorable court ruling for key tech firms supports sentiment, but contracting manufacturing data and weak technicals signal selective rotation.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/04/2025

Executive Summary

Global markets show contrasting trends. U.S. tech strength from specific catalysts stands against signs of economic deceleration and consolidation in Taiwanese equities.
A favorable U.S. antitrust ruling for Alphabet and Apple may create a catalyst for Taiwan's supply chain, while the TAIEX shows technical weakness and sector rotation.
U.S. Treasury yields retreated on signs of a cooling labor market, reinforcing Fed rate cut expectations. Long-term yields remain elevated from global fiscal pressures.
Manufacturing PMIs in the U.S. and Taiwan are in contractionary territory. This confirms a persistent industrial slowdown and a cautious business outlook.
The U.S. government's revocation of TSMC's "Verified End User" status for its Nanjing facility introduces a specific regulatory headwind for the semiconductor leader.

U.S. mega-cap technology stocks rallied on specific regulatory relief, masking persistent weakness in broader economic fundamentals. A U.S. court ruling allows Alphabet and Apple to continue their search partnership. This removed a significant regulatory overhang and may create a direct tailwind for Taiwan's Apple-centric supply chain. This catalyst-driven strength in the U.S. runs counter to manufacturing data from both the U.S. and Taiwan. The data signals an ongoing contraction and supports a cautious stance.

Bond market signals confirm this complex backdrop. Falling U.S. job openings reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This condition is supportive of risk assets. At the same time, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain firm. This reflects global concerns over sovereign debt and fiscal spending, a trend also visible in the U.K., Germany, and Japan. The steepening yield curve suggests the market anticipates near-term policy easing.

In Taiwan, the market is consolidating near recent highs. The TAIEX continues to test technical levels and momentum is slowing, pointing to short-term profit-taking. Net buyers are focusing on financials. The outlook for the trading day ahead is for continued volatility and sector-based performance. Positive sentiment from U.S. tech provides support. The TAIEX's weakening technical posture and headwinds from contracting PMI data suggest resistance at recent highs. The market will likely fluctuate within a range ahead of next week's Apple product launch and the International Semiconductor Exhibition. This environment raises a key question for your portfolio. How should you position for selective growth within a consolidating market?

Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic Indicators & Bond Market Trends

The U.S. economic picture is weakening. Key indicators for corporate earnings and inflation deteriorated over the past week. This shift is mirrored in the bond market. Contrasting movements are appearing across the yield curve. The short and long ends are losing momentum while the intermediate-term segment holds firm. This signals a flight to the relative safety of mid-duration treasuries.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators

Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: --
Corporate Earnings: Current: ▼, Last Week: --
Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: ▲
Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
Consumer Strength: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼

The underlying economic signals have softened week-over-week. The trend for Corporate Earnings deteriorated, shifting from neutral to negative. The Inflation signal weakened from positive to neutral. Investment Duration, Currency Flow into the USD, and Consumer Strength held their neutral or negative trends. These signals reinforce a cautious macroeconomic outlook.

Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)

1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼

Contrasting trends are evident across the U.S. Treasury curve. The short end of the curve, represented by 1-3 Year US Treasuries, shows significant deterioration. The trend fell from strongly positive to neutral. The long end, specifically 20+ Year US Treasuries, also deteriorated, moving from negative to strongly negative. The middle of the curve from 3-10 years remains stable. This indicates investors are rotating capital into mid-duration assets as a primary risk-off position.

👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.

📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.

📰Follow this blog.

💬Connect with us on LINE.

➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。