【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國勞動數據走弱，市場押注降息

就業市場趨緩，強化聯準會降息依據，為股市創造有利條件

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月4日 美東時間

摘要

• 在勞動市場降溫的明確跡象，鞏固了市場對聯準會降息的預期後，美國市場應聲上漲。
• 在科技和消費類股的帶領下，標普500指數創下歷史新高；而台股加權指數(TAIEX)則在資金輪動至中小型股之際，呈現盤整格局。
• 在今日官方八月份就業報告公布前，投資者預期貨幣政策將走向寬鬆，美國公債殖利率因而下滑。
• ADP民間就業數據和初請領失業金人數雙雙未達預期，為美國就業市場減速提供了直接的訊號。
• 九月國防展覽登場前，市場對台灣兩岸軍工產業的關注日益升高，創造了一個獨特的國內投資主題。

疲弱的美國經濟數據現已成為股市上漲的主要推力。經濟放緩預示著聯準會即將轉向寬鬆，將標普500指數推升至歷史新高。接下來的市場軌跡將取決於今日即將公布的美國官方非農就業報告。此一總體經濟背景，為全球科技股創造了直接的順風，並為投資者在台灣出口導向的電子產業曝險，營造了一個有利的環境。

美國數據揭示出一致的趨勢。ADP民間就業報告顯示就業人數僅增加5.4萬人，低於市場預期的8.5萬人。初請領失業金人數則上升至23.7萬人，高於市場共識。這是勞動市場降溫的明確證據。作為回應，資金流入股市，而美國公債殖利率則下跌，這是降息機率提高的典型訊號。Alphabet在有利的反壟斷消息下展現的正向動能，為那斯達克指數提供了額外的催化因素。此一發展，直接有利於台灣廣泛的科技供應鏈。

儘管美國市場因總經數據走強，台灣市場卻展現出更為複雜的內部動態。台股加權指數(TAIEX)收盤小漲，但仍處於高檔盤整格局。技術指標顯示，在關鍵移動平均線之下，市場呈現強烈的觀望氛圍。關鍵的動態在於資金的輪動：資金正流入獨特的國內題材，特別是在即將到來的國防展覽前，軍工和航太股備受關注。與此同時，中小型股的表現也相對突出。外資法人的淨買超提供了一個堅實的支撐底層，但主要的動能仍在於這些輪動性的題材。

一份符合或低於8萬人共識的非農就業報告(NFP)，將會驗證聯準會的降息論述，並為股市的進一步上漲提供支撐。對台股加權指數(TAIEX)而言，這強化了與蘋果(Apple)和谷歌(Google)相關的大型科技股的樂觀前景。本地市場的主導趨勢，仍然是這些國際受惠股，與由國內驅動的國防、AI政策倡議及造船等題材之間的高速輪動。這為投資組合帶來了一個關鍵問題：如何在績效優異的科技龍頭股核心部位，與為捕捉由獨立事件驅動的國內類股Alpha的戰術性配置之間，取得平衡。

週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢

大宗商品綜合指數呈現衝突的趨勢，暗示著通膨預期與全球成長擔憂之間的對比。主要貨幣兌新台幣則普遍穩定，其中日圓和工業金屬的轉弱趨勢值得密切監控。

圖表一：貨幣 (以新台幣計價)

• 美元 (貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 歐元 (貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 日圓 (貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
• 人民幣 (貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 加幣 (貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲

主要貨幣兌新台幣的趨勢展望主要為穩定。美元、歐元、人民幣和加幣均維持其正向趨勢。日圓是唯一的例外，其趨勢從正向惡化為中性。這顯示外幣相對於新台幣，呈現廣泛但非一致的強勢。

圖表二：大宗商品 (以美元計價)

• 能源類大宗商品 (代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
• 農業類大宗商品 (代表-性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 工業金屬 (代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
• 貴金屬 (代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 數位資產 (代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: --, 一週前: –

大宗商品市場浮現出對立的趨勢。農業類大宗商品和貴金屬維持強勢正向趨勢，預示著持續的需求。相較之下，工業金屬的趨勢惡化至中性，是製造業活動可能轉弱的潛在指標。能源類大宗商品則維持負向趨勢。數位資產守住其中性立場，反映了投資者的猶豫不決。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Weakening U.S. Labor Data Increase Rate Cut Expectations

Softer Job Market Strengthens Fed Rate Cut Case, Creating Favorable Conditions for Stocks

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/04/2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. markets advanced after clear signs of a cooling labor market solidified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
• The S&P 500 reached a new record high, led by technology and consumer sectors, while the TAIEX showed consolidation as capital rotated into small and mid-cap stocks.
• U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors anticipated monetary easing ahead of today's official August employment report.
• ADP private payrolls and initial jobless claims both missed estimates, providing direct signals of a decelerating U.S. job market.
• Focus on Taiwan's cross-strait military-industrial sector is growing ahead of the September defense exhibition, creating a distinct domestic investment theme.

Weaker U.S. economic data is now the primary driver of equity market gains. This dynamic, where a slowing economy signals imminent Federal Reserve easing, propelled the S&P 500 to a new record. The market's trajectory now depends on the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due today. This macro backdrop creates a direct tailwind for global technology and a favorable environment for your exposure to Taiwan's export-oriented electronics sector.

U.S. data reveals a consistent trend. The ADP private payrolls report showed a gain of 54,000 jobs against an 85,000 estimate. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, also above consensus. This is unambiguous evidence of a cooling labor market. In response, capital flowed into equities while U.S. Treasury yields fell, a classic signal of rising rate-cut expectations. Positive momentum in Alphabet on favorable antitrust news provided an additional catalyst for the Nasdaq. This development directly benefits Taiwan's extensive technology supply chain.

While U.S. markets advanced on macro data, the Taiwan market displayed a more complex internal dynamic. The TAIEX closed with a modest gain but remains in a high-level consolidation pattern. Technical indicators signal a strong wait-and-see atmosphere below key moving averages. The critical action is the rotation of capital. Funds are flowing into distinct domestic themes, notably military and aerospace stocks ahead of the upcoming defense exhibition. Concurrently, small and mid-cap stocks, are outperforming. Net buying from foreign institutions provides a solid floor of support, but the primary momentum is in these rotational plays.

An NFP report in line with or below the 80,000 consensus would validate the Fed rate-cut narrative and support further upside. For the TAIEX, this reinforces the positive outlook for large-cap technology stocks associated with Apple and Google. The dominant local trend remains the high-speed rotation between these international beneficiaries and domestic-driven themes like defense, AI policy initiatives, and shipbuilding. This raises the question of how to balance core positions in high-performing technology leaders with tactical allocations to capture alpha from discrete, event-driven domestic sectors.

Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends

The commodity complex shows conflicting trends, suggesting a contrast between inflation expectations and global growth concerns. Major currencies show broad stability against the TWD. The weakening trend in the Japanese Yen and Industrial Metals warrants close monitoring.

Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)

• U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
• Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

The trend outlook for major currencies against the New Taiwan Dollar is predominantly stable. The U.S. Dollar, Euro, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained positive trends. The Japanese Yen is the sole outlier. Its trend deteriorated from positive to neutral. This indicates broad, though not uniform, strength in foreign currencies relative to the TWD.

Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)

• Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
• Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
• Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: --, Last Week: –

Opposing trends have emerged across commodity markets. Agricultural Commodities and Precious Metals sustained strongly positive trends, signaling persistent demand. In contrast, the trend for Industrial Metals deteriorated to neutral, a potential indicator of weakening manufacturing activity. Energy Commodities remained in a negative trend. Digital Assets held their neutral stance, reflecting investor indecision.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。