【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美勞動市場降溫，支撐降息預期，台灣科技股再創新高

市場焦點轉向美國通膨數據，國際半導體展與AI供應鏈成台股推進器

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月9日 美東時間

摘要

• 在美國經濟前景降溫之際，市場正進行盤整；而台灣股市則在獨特的、特定產業的科技催化劑驅動下，再創歷史新高。
• 在半導體和AI相關類股的帶領下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)飆升；而美國指數則在投資者等待關鍵通膨報告之際，僅錄得溫和漲幅。
• 在勞動市場疲軟的明確跡象下，市場已為聯準會即將到來的寬鬆政策定價，美國公債殖利率維持在年度低點附近。
• 一項重大的基準修訂，抹去了先前報告的91.1萬個美國就業崗位，證實了在本週CPI和PPI發布前，勞動市場已顯著放緩。
• 台灣市場的注意力集中在2025年國際半導體展(SEMICON Taiwan)，預期在矽光子(silicon photonics)和先進封裝方面的發布，將為本地供應鏈提供進一步的順風。

美國經濟前景的疲弱，為台灣的長期成長故事提供了有利的總體經濟背景。就業數據的大幅下修中證實了此趨勢。在美國市場等待通膨數據以便微調聯準會行動的同時，台股加權指數(TAIEX)正由AI和半導體產業的基本面、以及國內催化劑所推動。此一動態預示著，台灣市場的領導地位獲得了良好支撐，而非僅僅依賴於廣泛的全球市場情緒。

在美國，勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的修正是最關鍵的數據資料。追溯至2025年3月，該修訂將抹去91.1萬個就業崗位。此一調整證實了勞動市場的降溫速度比先前所理解的要快，使得聯準會在下週會議上降息幾成定局。此一發展蓋過了即將到來的CPI和PPI通膨報告的重要性，而聯準會目前的職責顯然是優先預防更深度的經濟衰退。因此，美國公債殖利率正維持在年度低點附近，為全球風險性資產創造了有利的流動性環境。

在台灣，市場的強勢根植於具體的產業特定事件。台股加權指數(TAIEX)創下新高，是強勁的外資流入鎖定獨特題材的結果。即將到來的國際半導體展(SEMICON Taiwan)是一個關鍵焦點，市場對其在矽光子(CPO)和下一代處理器架構方面的進展抱有高度期待。記憶體市場日益激烈的競爭—三星(Samsung)積極搶攻輝達(NVIDIA)的供應鏈—持續有利於整個台灣的先進封裝與測試生態系，其中包含了像日月光投控(ASE Investment Holdings)等關鍵企業。

週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣股市趨勢

今日的焦點轉向亞洲，區域股市指數普遍展現強勢。深入分析台灣最大型的企業，可見到大致正向的轉變，且投資者情緒在頂尖科技權值股之間，正進行高度的區別對待。

圖表一：區域股市指數 (以美元計價)

• 台灣 (代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --
• 香港 (代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 新加坡 (代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 日本 (代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 南韓 (代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲

本週，亞洲主要市場的動能普遍改善。台灣、日本和南韓的趨勢均增強為強勢正向。與此同時，香港和新加坡則維持其既有的強勢正向趨勢，顯示該區域廣泛且持續的投資者信心。

圖表二：台灣前五大企業 (以新台幣計價)

• 台積電 (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 鴻海精密 (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, 2317): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
• 聯發科 (MediaTek Inc, 2454): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▼
• 廣達電腦 (Quanta Computer Inc, 2382): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 台達電 (Delta Electronics Inc, 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

投資者的焦點在台灣頂尖企業之間具有選擇性。台積電、鴻海精密和聯發科的趨勢本週均有所改善。聯發科觀察到一個正向轉變，從負向轉為強勢正向。台達電則維持其強勢正向的狀態。相較之下，廣達電腦則維持在強烈負向趨勢，預示著與更廣泛的電子產業改善趨勢脫鉤的持續性疲弱。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Labor Market Cools, Solidifying Rate Cut Case as Taiwan Tech Hits New Highs

Focus shifts to U.S. inflation data while SEMICON Taiwan and AI supply chain catalysts propel the TAIEX forward.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/09/2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. markets are consolidating on a cooling economic outlook, while distinct, sector-specific technology catalysts drive Taiwanese equities to new highs.
• The TAIEX surged, led by semiconductor and AI-related stocks, while U.S. indices posted modest gains as investors await key inflation reports.
• U.S. Treasury yields remain near yearly lows, reflecting the market's pricing of imminent Federal Reserve easing following definitive signs of labor market weakness.
• A substantial benchmark revision erased 911,000 previously reported U.S. jobs, confirming a significant labor market slowdown ahead of this week's CPI and PPI releases.
• Attention in Taiwan is fixed on SEMICON Taiwan 2025, where expected announcements on silicon photonics and advanced packaging will provide further tailwinds for the local supply chain.

A softening U.S. economic landscape provides a supportive macro backdrop for Taiwan's secular growth story. This trend is confirmed by a massive downward revision in payroll data. While U.S. markets await inflation data to fine-tune Fed action, the TAIEX is propelled by fundamental, domestic catalysts in the AI and semiconductor sectors. This dynamic signals Taiwan's market leadership is well-supported and not merely dependent on broad global sentiment.

In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' revision is the most critical data point, retroactively erasing 911,000 jobs through March 2025. This adjustment confirms the labor market has been cooling more rapidly than previously understood, making a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week's meeting a near certainty. This development overshadows the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation reports. The Fed's mandate now clearly prioritizes pre-empting a deeper economic downturn. U.S. bond yields are therefore holding near their lows for the year, creating a favorable liquidity environment for risk assets globally.

In Taiwan, the market strength is rooted in tangible industry-specific events. The TAIEX hitting a new high is a function of strong foreign capital inflows targeting distinct themes. The upcoming SEMICON Taiwan exhibition is a key focal point, with expectations high for advancements in silicon photonics (CPO) and next-generation processor architecture. The intensifying competition in the memory market, with Samsung aggressively targeting Nvidia's supply chain, continues to benefit the entire Taiwanese advanced packaging and testing ecosystem, including key firms like ASE Investment Holdings.

Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends

Today's focus shifts to Asia, where regional equity indices are exhibiting broad strength. A closer analysis of Taiwan's largest companies shows a largely positive shift, and investor sentiment is differentiating heavily among the top tech names.

Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)

• Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
• Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲

Momentum has broadly improved across key Asian markets this week. The trends for Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all strengthened to strongly positive. Concurrently, Hong Kong and Singapore maintained their existing strongly positive trends, indicating widespread and sustained investor confidence in the region.

Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▼
• Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Investor focus is selective among Taiwan's top companies. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, and MediaTek Inc all saw their trends improve this week. A positive shift was observed for MediaTek, which moved from negative to strongly positive. Delta Electronics Inc maintained its strongly positive status. In contrast, Quanta Computer Inc remained in a strongly negative trend, signaling persistent weakness isolated from the broader electronics sector improvement.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。