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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國通膨趨緩推升全球股市；台股衝關25000點
溫和的生產者物價數據鞏固聯準會降息預期，為台灣AI供應鏈創造顯著順風
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月10日 美東時間
摘要
- 由於疲弱的生產者物價數據鞏固了市場對聯準會即將降息的預期，美國股市創下歷史新高。
- 科技和公用事業類股領漲美股；而在台灣，電子權值股則帶動台股加權指數(TAIEX)創下歷史新高，收於25,000之上。
- 公債市場價格上揚，美國公債殖利率因而下滑，10年期公債殖利率跌至4.05%，反映市場已為更鴿派的貨幣政策立場定價。
- 美國八月份生產者物價指數(PPI)年增率降至2.6%，低於市場預測，並預示在今日CPI發布前，價格壓力受到控制。
- 在以色列襲擊卡達以及俄羅斯侵犯波蘭領空後，地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，對原油價格施加上行壓力，帶來新的風險變數。
市場從美國的生產者物價中，接收到一個明確的通膨降溫訊號，鞏固了聯準會將於下週降息的預期。此一發展是驅動風險性資產的主要催化劑，將標普500指數和那斯達克指數推向新紀錄，並為台灣股市提供了直接的順風。美國公債殖利率的下滑，證實了債券市場與此一鴿派前景完全一致，為全球股市創造了正面的環境。
美國八月份2.6%的生產者物價指數(PPI)讀數，是一個顯著的下行意外。再加上歷史非農就業數據的大幅下修，此一價格壓力降溫與勞動市場趨緩的組合，給予了聯準會充足的理由來啟動其寬鬆週期。今日的消費者物價指數(CPI)數據是下一個關鍵的檢驗點，目前的趨勢顯示，與關稅相關的價格上漲已被供應鏈內部所吸收。此一總體經濟背景，對科技和成長導向的股票，基本上是利多的。
台股加權指數(TAIEX)對美國的市場動態做出反應，在大量外資流入下飆升至歷史新高。市場的內部動能異常強勁，並集中在主流的人工智慧(AI)論述上。台積電(TSMC)與輝達(NVIDIA)在共同封裝光學元件(Co-Packaged Optics)上的合作，以及高規格伺服器印刷電路板(PCB)的升級週期，代表了本地供應鏈顯著的、多年的成長向量。這些基本面題材，結合有利的全球流動性環境，為指數站上25,000點提供了動能。
當前的動能預示著股市的上行軌跡。展望未來交易日，台灣市場的技術面與基本面皆已就位，有望在AI生態系的帶領下持續走強。您的投資組合應如何佈局，以捕捉當前的動能？
週三資產焦點：美國宏觀經濟與債券趨勢
今日的分析顯示，企業健康指標呈現正向，但更廣泛的美國經濟則顯露疲弱訊號。這些情境正助長風險趨避的情緒，此情緒也反映在美國債券市場的普遍改善上，因資金正尋求避險。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
- 投資存續期間: 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 企業獲利: 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
- 通貨膨脹: 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
- 美元資金流向: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 消費者信心: 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
總體經濟訊號並非一致。企業獲利的趨勢改善，從負向轉為正向。與此同時，通膨指標則有所惡化。投資存續期間和美元資金流向則雙雙守住其中性與負向的趨勢，顯示持續性的結構性逆風。
圖表二：美國債券市場 (以美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 3-7年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 7-10年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 10-20年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
- 20年期以上美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼
美國債券市場展現普遍的改善。殖利率曲線的長天期端出現顯著轉變，20年期以上美國公債從強烈負向改善為中性，10-20年期美國公債則從負向改善為中性。短天期端同樣走強，1-3年期美國公債轉為正向。如3-7年期和7-10年期美國公債等中天期債券，則維持其正向趨勢，證實了資金正果斷地移入固定收益資產。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Disinflation Signal Propels Global Equities; TAIEX Poised to Breach 25,000
Benign producer price data solidifies Fed rate cut expectations, creating a significant tailwind for Taiwan's AI-centric supply chain.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/10/2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities reached new highs as soft producer price data solidified expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Technology and utility sectors led the U.S. advance, while in Taiwan, electronic heavyweights drove the TAIEX to a record close above 24,800.
- U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year falling to 4.05%, reflecting the market's pricing of a more dovish monetary policy stance.
- The August U.S. Producer Price Index fell to 2.6% annualized, undercutting forecasts and signaling contained price pressures ahead of today's CPI release.
- Heightened geopolitical tensions, following an Israeli strike in Qatar and Russian violation of Polish airspace, are applying upward pressure on crude oil prices, introducing a new risk variable.
The market received a clear disinflationary signal from U.S. producer prices, cementing the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. This development is the primary catalyst driving risk assets, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new records and providing a direct tailwind for Taiwan's equity market. The drop in U.S. Treasury yields confirms bond markets are fully aligned with this dovish outlook, creating a positive environment for global equities.
The August U.S. PPI reading of 2.6% was a significant downside surprise. It was augmented by substantial downward revisions to historical non-farm payrolls data. This combination of cooling price pressures and a softening labor market gives the Federal Reserve ample justification to begin its easing cycle. Today's Consumer Price Index data is the next key checkpoint. The trend indicates tariff-related price hikes have been absorbed within the supply chain. This macroeconomic backdrop is fundamentally bullish for technology and growth-oriented equities.
The TAIEX responded to the U.S. market activity, surging to a new record high on substantial foreign capital inflows. The market's internal dynamics are exceptionally strong, centered on the dominant Artificial Intelligence narrative. The collaboration between TSMC and NVIDIA on Co-Packaged Optics and the upgrade cycle for high-specification server PCBs represent significant, multi-year growth vectors for the local supply chain. These fundamental themes, combined with a favorable global liquidity environment, provide the momentum for the index to challenge the 25,000 psychological level.
The current momentum suggests an upward trajectory for equities. For the trading day ahead, the technical and fundamental pictures are aligned for continued strength in Taiwan, with leadership from the AI ecosystem. How is your portfolio positioned to capture the current momentum?
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic Indicators & Bond Trends
Today’s analysis shows positive corporate health indicators alongside weakening signals from the broader U.S. economy. These conditions are contributing to a risk-off sentiment. This is reflected in a broad-based improvement across the U.S. bond market as capital seeks safety.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- Inflation: Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The macroeconomic signals are not uniform. The trend for corporate earnings improved, shifting from negative to positive. At the same time, inflation indicators deteriorated. Investment duration and currency flow into the U.S. Dollar both held their respective neutral and negative trends, indicating persistent structural headwinds.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
The U.S. bond market shows widespread improvement. A significant shift occurred at the long end of the curve. 20+ Year US Treasuries improved from strongly negative to neutral and 10-20 Year US Treasuries improved from negative to neutral. The short end also strengthened, with 1-3 Year US Treasuries turning positive. Mid-duration bonds like 3-7 Year US Treasuries and 7-10 Year US Treasuries maintained their positive trends, confirming a decisive move into fixed-income assets.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。