【Joe’s華爾街脈動】全球AI趨勢助燃美股漲勢

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輝達企圖心成美股上漲焦點，債券殖利率攀升與美國政策風險值得關注

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月22日 美東時間

摘要

  • 在廣泛的AI樂觀情緒下，美國股市反彈，台股加權指數(TAIEX)則維持在歷史高點。
  • 輝達(NVIDIA)的策略性投資計畫，在美國引發了一波由科技股引領的漲勢，卻也在台灣引發了對供應鏈的擔憂。
  • 繼上週聯準會會議後，美國公債殖利率持續向上漂移，預示著一個較不寬鬆的利率環境，值得密切監控。
  • 即將公布的美國個人消費支出(PCE)通膨數據是本週的關鍵報告，在價格壓力上升的預期中，它將形塑聯準會的下一步政策動向。
  • 川普政府擬議的移民政策變革以及政府關門的威脅，為市場帶來了顯著的政治與經濟不確定性。

美國市場在長期的AI論述推動下走高，輝達(NVIDIA)的策略性資本承諾成為主要催化劑。與此直接相反的是，台股加權指數(TAIEX)正謹慎地反彈，以反應這些舉措對其供應鏈龍頭的立即、二階效應。這表明在經歷歷史性的漲勢後，台灣市場呈現審慎樂觀。

在美國，市場的走勢明確偏向樂觀。輝達(NVIDIA)計畫中的AI投資，推動其股價上漲，並將那斯達克(NASDAQ)指數拉抬至新高。此波漲勢基礎廣泛，標普500、道瓊工業平均指數以及小型股羅素2000指數皆有參與。然而，此一看漲的股市情緒，正與其他資產類別的警示訊號並存。美國公債殖利率正向上漂移，反映出債券市場對聯準會未來路徑的懷疑。與此同時，黃金正推向新高，顯示在潛在的總體經濟與政治風險中，市場對避險資產的持續性需求。

台股加權指數(TAIEX)創下歷史新高。然而，投資者對輝達(NVIDIA)策略性企圖心的焦慮，以及半導體供應鏈可能發生轉變的擔憂可能依然存在，此擔憂即使在台積電(TSMC)根深蒂固的技術領導地位下，仍對其股價構成壓力。展望未來，台股加權指數(TAIEX)的波動性可能將會升高。儘管指數仍處於關鍵的長期移動平均線之上，但短期的技術面暗示應保持謹慎。市場現在必須消化AI、機器人及先進製程的長期機會，以及來自美國政策的短期頭條新聞風險，即H1-B簽證費用的調漲與政府關門的潛在可能性。

週一資產焦點：美國股市與頂尖企業趨勢

美國市場正釋放出廣泛且加速的強勢訊號。主要指數穩固地維持在強勢正向區間，而關鍵的超大型科技股在過去一週，也展現出動能改善的清晰跡象。

圖表一：美國股市指數 (以美元計價)

  • 道瓊工業平均指數 (代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 標普500指數 (代表-性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 那斯達克綜合指數 (代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 羅素2000指數 (代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
  • 費城半導體指數 (代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

所有美國主要指數皆展現穩定、強勢正向的趨勢。此一訊號在道瓊工業平均指數、標普500指數、那斯達克綜合指數、羅素2000指數及費城半導體指數的持續性，顯示市場對美國股市具有基礎廣泛且持續的信心。

圖表二：美國前五大企業 (以美元計價)

  • 輝達 (NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
  • 微軟 (Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
  • 蘋果 (Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
  • 亞馬遜 (Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
  • Meta Platforms (META): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲

超大型科技龍頭股之間的動能已明確改善。過去一週，輝達(NVIDIA)、微軟(Microsoft)、蘋果(Apple)和Meta Platforms的趨勢，均從正向增強為強勢正向。亞馬遜(Amazon.com)則維持其正向趨勢，是一個穩定的訊號。此一普遍的加速，指向投資者對市場主要驅動因素的信心正在增強。


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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Global AI Narrative Fuels U.S. Rally

NVIDIA's ambitions are the focal point for both U.S. gains, with rising bond yields and U.S. policy risks demanding investor attention.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/22/2025

Executive Summary

  • U.S. equities rallied on broad AI optimism while the TAIEX remained at record highs.
  • NVIDIA's strategic investment plans fueled a technology-led surge in the U.S. but sparked supply-chain concerns in Taiwan.
  • U.S. Treasury yields continue their upward drift following last week's Federal Reserve meeting, signaling a less accommodative rate environment that warrants close monitoring.
  • Upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data is the week's critical report, set to shape the Federal Reserve's next policy move amidst expectations of rising price pressures.
  • The Trump administration's proposed immigration policy changes and threats of a government shutdown introduce significant political and economic uncertainty into the market.

U.S. markets are propelled higher by a long-term AI narrative, with NVIDIA's strategic capital commitments acting as the main catalyst. In direct contrast, the TAIEX is cautiously rallying in reaction to the immediate, second-order effects of these moves on its supply chain leaders. This indicates a cautious optimism in Taiwan after a historic run,.

In the United States, market action was decisively positive. NVIDIA's planned investments in AI drove its stock higher and lifted the NASDAQ to a new record. The rally was broad-based, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and the small-cap Russell 2000 participating. This bullish equity sentiment exists alongside cautionary signals from other asset classes. U.S. Treasury yields are drifting higher, reflecting bond market skepticism about the Federal Reserve's path forward. Concurrently, gold is pushing to new records, indicating a persistent demand for safe havens amidst underlying macro and political risks.

The TAIEX setting a new all-time high. However, there may be some lingering investor anxiety over NVIDIA's strategic ambitions and the potential for shifts in the semiconductor supply chain, which pressured TSMC despite its entrenched technological leadership. Looking forward, the TAIEX could experience higher volatility. Although the index remains above key long-term moving averages, the short-term technical picture suggests caution. The market must now digest the long-term opportunities in AI, robotics, and advanced processes and the near-term headline risks from U.S. policy, namely the H1-B visa fee hike and potential government shutdown.

Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Top Company Trends

The U.S. market is signaling broad and accelerating strength. Major indices are holding firm in strongly positive territory, while key mega-cap technology stocks show clear signs of improving momentum over the past week.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
  • PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

All major U.S. indices are exhibiting stable, strongly positive trends. The persistence of this signal across the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 Index, and PHLX Semiconductor Index indicates broad-based, sustained conviction in the U.S. equity market.

Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)

  • NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
  • Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
  • Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
  • Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
  • Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲

Momentum among mega-cap technology leaders has clearly improved. The trends for NVIDIA Corp, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, and Meta Platforms Inc all strengthened from positive to strongly positive over the week. Amazon.com Inc maintained its positive trend, which is a stable signal. This widespread acceleration points to increasing investor confidence in the market's primary drivers.


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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.


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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。