【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美股盤整之際，台灣憑藉半導體實力逆勢走強

半導體實力推升台股，美股則因聯準會不確定性暫歇

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月24日 美東時間

摘要

• 台灣由半導體驅動的強勢，與美國的溫和回檔形成對比。
• 美國股市因估值擔憂，經歷了第二個交易日的下跌。台股加權指數(TAIEX)則在台積電(TSMC)的帶動下，顯著上揚。
• 聯準會會後，美國公債殖利率因價格下跌而上揚，此舉強化了美元，並預示著債券市場的拋售潮。
• 標普500指數第三季盈餘預計將強勁成長，半導體產業預期將有顯著增長，突顯了企業的韌性。
• 關於俄烏衝突的地緣政治評論，為西德州中級原油(WTI)帶來上行壓力，該商品目前正於近期區間頂部交易。

美國市場正受到聯準會釋出的訊號以及主席鮑爾對估值的評論所影響而進行盤整，而台灣市場則受到強大的、特定產業的順風所推動而上揚。對台灣上市的資產而言，產業基本面目前正壓過更廣泛的總體經濟擔憂。台灣市場的上漲，直接反映了其在全球半導體產業中的定價能力與技術領導地位。

美國股市的回檔，反映了市場正在消化多個數據點。企業基本面看似穩固，標普500指數第三季的盈餘正邁向令人矚目的成長。但與此同時，債券市場出現拋售，從殖利率上升和美元走強可見一斑。聯準會內部對利率路徑的討論，創造了不確定性，此一不確定性又被主席鮑爾直接承認股市估值偏高的言論所放大，為市場的獲利了結提供了催化劑。即將到來的通膨與勞動數據，對於解決此一政策辯論至關重要。

台股加權指數(TAIEX)的上漲，展現了其半導體產業的主導地位。關於台積電(TSMC)先進的3奈米與2奈米製程將大幅漲價的報導，加上其在蘋果(Apple)下一代晶片中的核心角色，已點燃了投資者的信心，並吸引了大量的海外資金流入。記憶體市場的週期性復甦，為此一長期成長故事提供了補充，預期第四季DRAM和NAND的價格上漲，將有利於整個供應鏈。在美國市場尋找方向的同時，台灣的驅動因素具體且明確：AI需求、先進節點的定價能力，以及記憶體週期的上揚。

週三資產焦點：美國宏觀經濟與債券趨勢

總經概況已有所改善，如企業獲利和通膨等關鍵指標在過去一週皆呈現正向轉變。固定收益市場則呈現穩定，殖利率曲線的短天期與中天期部分顯現強勢，而長天期端則顯露疲態。

圖表一：美國宏觀經濟

• 投資存續期間: 當前: --, 一週前: --
• 企業獲利: 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: ▼
• 美元資金流向: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 消費者信心: 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

經濟前景逐週改善。企業獲利的趨勢從正向增強為強勢正向。通膨的負向趨勢則緩和至中性。美元資金流向的負向趨勢同樣有所趨緩。投資存續期間和消費者信心則維持穩定，分別守住中性與強勢正向的趨勢。

圖表二：美國債券市場 (以美元計價)

• 1-3年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 3-7年期美國公-債 (代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 7-10年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 10-20年期美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 20年期以上美國公債 (代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼

美國債券市場穩定，所有追蹤的到期債券均維持其前一週的趨勢。殖利率曲線在不同到期日之間呈現不同趨勢。以1-3年期和3-7年期美國公債為代表的短中期債券，維持著正向至強勢正向的趨勢。長天期債券，特別是7-10年期和20年期以上美國公債，則維持在強烈負向趨勢。10-20年期的美國公債則守住其強勢正向的趨勢。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Taiwan Rallies on Semiconductor Strength as U.S. Markets Consolidate

Semiconductor Strength Propels TAIEX Upward While U.S. Equities Pause Amid Fed Uncertainty

By Joe 盧, CFA | September 24, 2025

Executive Summary

• Semiconductor-driven strength in Taiwan contrasts with a modest pullback in the U.S.
• U.S. equities experienced a second session of declines on valuation concerns. The TAIEX showed significant upward movement, led by strength in TSMC.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose post-Fed meeting. This strengthened the U.S. dollar and signaled a bond market sell-off.
• S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are projected for robust growth. The semiconductor sector is expected to see significant gains, underscoring corporate resilience.
• Geopolitical commentary regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict contributed to upward pressure on WTI crude oil. The commodity is now trading at the top of its recent range.

U.S. markets are consolidating, influenced by Federal Reserve signals and valuation commentary from Chairman Powell. Taiwan's market is propelled upward by powerful, sector-specific tailwinds. For Taiwan-listed assets, industry fundamentals are currently overriding broader macroeconomic concerns. The upward movement in Taiwan is a direct reflection of pricing power and technological leadership in the global semiconductor industry.

The U.S. equity pullback reflects a market processing multiple data points. Corporate fundamentals appear solid, with Q3 S&P 500 earnings tracking for impressive growth. At the same time, the bond market is selling off, evidenced by rising yields and a stronger dollar. The Federal Reserve's internal discussion on the path for interest rates creates uncertainty. This was amplified by Chairman Powell's direct acknowledgment of elevated stock valuations, which provided a catalyst for profit-taking. Upcoming inflation and labor data are important for resolving the policy debate.

The TAIEX's upward movement demonstrates the dominance of its semiconductor sector. Reports of significant price increases for TSMC's advanced 3nm and 2nm nodes, cemented by its central role in Apple's next-generation chips, have ignited investor confidence and attracted substantial foreign capital inflows. A cyclical recovery in the memory market complements this secular growth story, with projected Q4 price hikes for DRAM and NAND benefiting the entire supply chain. While the U.S. market seeks direction, the drivers for Taiwan are specific and well-defined: AI demand, advanced node pricing power, and the memory cycle upswing.

Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond Trends

The macro picture has improved. Key indicators like corporate earnings and inflation showed positive shifts over the past week. The fixed income market is stable. Strength is apparent at the short and intermediate sections of the curve, with weakness at the longer end.

Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators

• Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: --
• Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Consumer Strength: Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The economic outlook improved week-over-week. The trend for Corporate Earnings strengthened from positive to strongly positive. The negative trend in Inflation eased to neutral. The negative trend in Currency Flow (into USD) also moderated. Investment Duration and Consumer Strength remain stable, holding neutral and strongly positive trends, respectively.

Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)

• 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: XLY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: XLP): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: RXI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: KXI): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼

The U.S. bond market is stable, with all tracked maturities holding their prior week's trend. The yield curve shows different trends across maturities. Short-to-intermediate term bonds, represented by 1-3 Year US Treasuries and 3-7 Year US Treasuries, are maintaining positive to strongly positive trends. Longer-duration bonds, specifically the 7-10 Year US Treasuries and 20+ Year US Treasuries, remain in a strongly negative trend. The 10-20 Year US Treasuries segment holds a strongly positive trend.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。