【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國政府關門風險升高，美股回檔

地緣政治晶片壓力加劇，台股面臨類股輪動

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月25日 美東時間

摘要

• 儘管經濟指標強勁，股市指數仍下跌，顯示市場焦點在於短期政治風險。
• 美股因獲利了結連續第三個交易日下跌。在台灣，美國對晶片供應鏈的評論引發資金從台積電(TSMC)輪動至伺服器ODM廠與傳統產業。
• 10年期美國公債殖利率持續攀升至4.17%，反映了股市目前所忽視的經濟增長前景轉強訊號。
• 美國第二季GDP上修至3.8%及初請領失業金人數下降，證實了潛在的經濟韌性，與市場的避險姿態形成對比。
• 美國政府迫在眉睫的關門危機製造了短期市場波動。有關將晶片生產移出台灣的言論，直接衝擊了台股加權指數(TAIEX)的類股龍頭表現。

美股連續第三天下跌，主因為獲利了結以及潛在政府關門的頭條新聞風險，儘管明確的數據指向美國經濟的韌性。此一情勢創造了一個高檔盤整階段，市場的潛在力道暫時被政治雜音所掩蓋。

在美國，第二季最終GDP數據被顯著上修至3.8%，遠高於預期，且每週初請領失業金人數下降，指向強健的勞動市場。此一基本面實力準確地反映在債券市場上，10年期公債殖利率持續攀升。然而，股市投資者的焦點卻在別處。10月1日美國政府可能關門的風險，為市場在經歷一波大漲後提供了去風險化的藉口。歷史分析顯示，這類事件雖會引發短期波動，但對市場的長期表現影響微乎其微。市場表現最終仍取決於經濟成長與企業獲利。

美國的此一背景為台灣市場設定了負面基調。然而，本地因素才是驅動盤中最主要動態的關鍵。台股加權指數(TAIEX)回檔，壓力集中在台積電(TSMC)。美國財政部長關於將晶片生產移出台灣的直接評論，引發了一次明確的資金輪動。資金從這家半導體領頭羊流出，轉向伺服器設計製造商(ODM)，以及塑膠等傳統產業。

週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢

今日的分析揭示了一個充滿對比的市場格局。新台幣兌主要貨幣的匯率市場大致穩定，過去一週波動極小。然而，在大宗商品領域，一場明顯的分歧正在發生：投資者正從投機性資產輪動至傳統的避險資產，這標誌著風險偏好的重大轉變。

圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)

• 美元(交易對: USDTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --
• 歐元(交易對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲, 上週: ▲
• 日圓(交易對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --
• 人民幣(交易對: CNYTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --
• 加幣(交易對: CADTWD): 當前: --, 上週: --

歐元是唯一兌新台幣維持溫和正向趨勢的貨幣。美元、日圓、人民幣及加幣均保持中性狀態，趨勢與前一週持平。這種廣泛的穩定性意味著市場正處於盤整期，沒有任何單一貨幣建立主導地位。

圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)

• 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: --, 上週: ▼
• 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: --, 上週: --
• 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲, 上週: ▲
• 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
• 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: --, 上週: ▲▲

大宗商品市場的整體表現，確認了投資者情緒的明顯轉變。最突出的趨勢是數位資產的急劇惡化，其趨勢從強烈正向崩落至中性，顯示動能顯著流失。相較之下，貴金屬維持其強烈正向趨勢，強化了其作為首選避險資產的角色。工業金屬亦守住了溫和正向的趨勢。能源類大宗商品出現了顯著改善，在上週呈現溫和負向後，本週穩定至中性，而農業類大宗商品則保持中性。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Markets Pull Back Amid Shutdown Risk

Taipei Confronts Sector Rotation as Geopolitical Chip Pressure Mounts

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/25/2025

Executive Summary

• Equity indices fall despite robust economic indicators, signaling a market focus on short-term political risk.
• U.S. equities fell for a third consecutive session on profit-taking. In Taiwan, capital rotated out of TSMC into server ODMs and traditional industries following U.S. commentary on chip supply chains.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues its ascent to 4.17%, reflecting a strengthening growth outlook the stock market currently ignores.
• Upwardly revised U.S. Q2 GDP at 3.8% and lower jobless claims confirm underlying economic resilience, contrasting with the market's risk-off posture.
• A looming U.S. government shutdown creates short-term market volatility. Rhetoric about diversifying chip production away from Taiwan directly impacts sector leadership in the TAIEX.

U.S. equities declined for a third day, driven by profit-taking and headline risk from a potential government shutdown, even as definitive data pointed to a resilient American economy. This dynamic created a high-level consolidation phase, where underlying strength is temporarily overshadowed by political noise.

In the United States, the final Q2 GDP reading was revised significantly higher to 3.8%, well above forecasts, and weekly jobless claims fell, pointing to a robust labor market. This fundamental strength is accurately reflected in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield continues to grind higher. Equity investors are focused elsewhere. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown on October 1st provides a pretext for de-risking after a significant market rally. Historical analysis shows these events induce short-term volatility but have a negligible long-term impact on market performance. Performance remains tethered to economic growth and corporate earnings.

This U.S. backdrop set a negative tone for the Taiwan market. Local factors drove the most significant action. The TAIEX pulled back with pressure concentrated on TSMC. Direct commentary from the U.S. Treasury Secretary about moving chip production from Taiwan sparked a distinct capital rotation. Funds flowed out of the semiconductor bellwether and into server design manufacturers, along with more traditional industries such as plastics.

Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities Trends

Today's analysis reveals a market of contrasts. The currency markets against the Taiwanese Dollar are largely stable, showing minimal fluctuation over the past week. In commodities, however, a clear divergence is underway: investors are rotating out of speculative assets and into traditional safe havens, signaling a significant shift in risk appetite.

Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)

• U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --

The Euro was the only currency to maintain a Mildly Positive trend against the Taiwanese Dollar. The U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all remained in a Neutral state, holding their trends from the prior week. This broad stability suggests a period of consolidation, with no single currency establishing dominance.

Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)

• Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲

The commodities complex confirms a clear shift in investor sentiment. The standout trend is the sharp deterioration in Digital Assets, which collapsed from a Strongly Positive trend to Neutral, indicating a significant loss of momentum. In contrast, Precious Metals maintained their Strongly Positive trend, reinforcing their role as a preferred safe-haven asset. Industrial Metals also held their Mildly Positive trend. A notable improvement occurred in Energy Commodities, which stabilized to Neutral after being Mildly Negative last week, while Agricultural Commodities remained Neutral.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。