【Joe’s華爾街脈動】無視政治紛擾，AI趨勢力推股市創新高

台股加權指數(TAIEX)再創歷史新高，美股無視關門風險、聚焦聯準會寬鬆在即

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月3日 美東時間

摘要

• 全球股市上漲，主因貨幣政策預期壓過了美國的政治失能。
• 美股指數創下歷史新高，台股加權指數(TAIEX)隨之跟進，科技與人工智慧(AI)概念股展現明確的市場領導地位。
• 市場對聯準會短期內降息的預期升溫，目前機率高達95%，此預期正支撐著風險性資產的市場情緒。
• 美國政府關門導致就業報告延遲發布，製造了資訊真空，與此同時，近期的ISM服務業數據則預示經濟正在放緩。
• 美國政府關門仍是頭條新聞風險，但投資者正忽視此事件，這與先前歷次關門對市場持久影響極小的模式一致。

市場的主流論述顯示，長期的科技順風壓倒了週期性與政治性的逆風。投資者的焦點已果斷轉向人工智慧(AI)驅動的成長與寬鬆的貨幣政策，使美國政府關門成為次要因素。價格走勢確認了此一清晰趨勢，道瓊指數與台股加權指數(TAIEX)雙雙創下歷史新高。在台積電(TSMC)再創新高的引領下，台股的漲勢直接反映了美股的強勁以及法人資金大舉配置於科技龍頭股的趨勢。

在美國，市場正積極地將疲弱的經濟數據解讀為正面的催化劑。弱於預期的ISM服務業數據，特別是其中萎縮的就業分項指數，強化了聯準會需要出手干預的理由。因此，CME FedWatch期貨目前顯示，十月降息的機率高達95%。在此一「壞消息就是好消息」的動態下，股市被推升至更高點，即便政府關門延遲了關鍵的九月份就業報告發布。此一數據真空雖增加了短期不確定性，但市場的主流情緒顯示，投資者相信無論具體數據如何，聯準會都將採取行動支撐經濟。

此一環境為台股提供了強力的背景。在三大法人的大量買盤推動下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)跳空開高並守住漲幅。資金正精準地流向增長集中的領域：半導體、AI硬體以及更廣泛的電子供應鏈，鴻海、廣達與台達電等個股的強勁表現驗證了此一趨勢。展望未來，基本面的增長論述依然完整。AI投資週期為台灣的核心產業提供了持久的需求驅動力。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

追蹤主要指數的美國指數股票型基金(ETF)持續以一致的動能，預示著廣泛的市場實力。在台灣，市值加權ETF的表現優於高股息策略ETF，且有一檔高股息基金顯露顯著疲態。

圖表一：美國資產管理規模(AUM)排名前五大ETF(美元計價)

• Vanguard標普500 ETF(Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
• SPDR標普500 ETF信託(Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
• iShares核心標普500 ETF(Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
• Vanguard整體股市指數基金ETF(Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ信託系列1(Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲

美國規模最大的幾檔ETF動能穩定且明確為正向。Vanguard標普500 ETF、SPDR標普500 ETF信託、iShares核心標普500 ETF、Vanguard整體股市指數基金ETF，以及Invesco QQQ信託系列1的趨勢，在過去一週均維持其強烈正向的狀態。這表明市場對美股存在廣泛且持續的信念。

圖表二：台灣資產管理規模(AUM)排名前列ETF(新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣50 ETF(Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
• 元大高股息ETF(Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▲, 上週: --
• 國泰永續高股息ETF(Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▲, 上週: --
• 群益台灣精選高息ETF(Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 上週: ▼▼
• 富邦台50 ETF(Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲

台灣ETF市場的表現差異顯而易見。如元大台灣50 ETF和富邦台50 ETF等大盤追蹤型ETF，維持其強烈正向趨勢。高股息策略ETF的表現則各異。元大高股息ETF和國泰永續高股息ETF的趨勢從中性改善為正向。相較之下，群益台灣精選高息ETF則穩定地維持在強烈負向趨勢。這些資金流動，預示著投資者在高收益領域內的偏好正在轉變。

👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。

📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。

📰追蹤此部落格。

💬LINE好友。

➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。

本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

AI Secular Wave Overrides Political Noise, Powering Equities Higher

TAIEX Reaches New Record as U.S. Markets Shrug Off Shutdown, Focus on Imminent Fed Easing

By Joe 盧, CFA | October 3, 2025

Executive Summary

• Global equity markets are advancing, driven by monetary policy expectations overriding U.S. political dysfunction.
• U.S. indices notched record highs and the TAIEX followed, with technology and AI-centric names exhibiting clear market leadership.
• Rising expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, now at a 95% probability, are supporting risk asset sentiment.
• The delay of the U.S. jobs report from the government shutdown creates an information vacuum, while recent ISM services data signals economic softening.
• The U.S. government shutdown remains a headline risk but investors are disregarding the event, consistent with the minimal lasting market impact from prior shutdowns.

The primary market narrative shows secular technology tailwinds overwhelming cyclical and political headwinds. Investor focus has decisively shifted toward AI-driven growth and accommodative monetary policy, rendering the U.S. government shutdown a secondary factor. Price action confirms a clear trend, with both the Dow Jones and the TAIEX posting record highs. The rally in Taipei, led by TSMC reaching a new peak, is a direct reflection of U.S. market strength and significant institutional capital allocation into technology leaders.

In the United States, markets are actively interpreting weak economic data as a positive catalyst. The softer-than-expected ISM services print, particularly the contracting employment sub-index, reinforces the case for Federal Reserve intervention. Consequently, CME FedWatch futures now signal a 95% probability of a rate cut in October. This dynamic, where bad news is good news, propels equities higher, even as the shutdown delays the release of the critical September jobs report. This data vacuum increases near-term uncertainty, but prevailing market sentiment indicates a belief the Fed will act to support the economy regardless of the specific numbers.

This environment provides a strong backdrop for Taiwanese equities. The TAIEX gapped higher and sustained its gains, driven by substantial buying from the three major institutional investors. Capital is flowing precisely where growth is concentrated: semiconductors, AI hardware, and the broader electronics supply chain, validated by strong performance in names like Hon Hai, Quanta, and Delta Electronics. Looking ahead, the fundamental growth thesis remains intact. The AI investment cycle provides a durable demand driver for Taiwan's core industries.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

U.S. exchange-traded funds tracking major indices continue to signal broad market strength with uniform momentum. In Taiwan, market-cap weighted ETFs are outperforming high-dividend strategies, and one high-dividend fund shows significant weakness.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Momentum across the largest U.S. ETFs is stable and unequivocally positive. The trends for the Vanguard S 500 ETF, SPDR S 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF, and Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 all maintained their strongly positive status over the past week. This indicates broad, sustained conviction in U.S. equities.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Performance differences are evident in the Taiwanese ETF market. Broad market trackers like the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF maintained their strongly positive trends. Performance within high-dividend strategies varied. The trends for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF improved from neutral to positive. In contrast, the Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF remains in a stable, strongly negative trend. These flows signal a shift in investor preference within the high-yield space.

👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.

📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.

📰Follow this blog.

💬Connect with us on LINE.

➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。