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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】華府僵局未改，科技股領導地位屹立不搖
人工智慧(AI)實力驅動科技股走強，美國政府關門持續之際，為台股開盤指明方向
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月6日 美東時間
摘要
- 週一美股盤勢顯示科技股表現優於大盤，此為特定產業催化劑壓過宏觀經濟擔憂的訊號。
- 那斯達克指數在半導體產業人工智慧(AI)論述的強勢帶動下上漲，道瓊工業平均指數則錄得下跌。
- 美國公債殖利率走高，但仍處於近期交易區間內，顯示固定收益市場認為政治僵局的立即性風險有限。
- 持續的政府關門是主要經濟變數，歷史先例指向此事件將對第四季GDP增長構成暫時性拖累，從而強化了貨幣寬鬆的理由。
- 華府政治僵局持續，但市場受到聯準會十月降息的堅定預期所支撐。
長期增長趨勢，特別是人工智慧(AI)的投資週期，正展現出其韌性，並與政治不確定性所帶來的週期性拖累脫鉤。儘管美國政府關門已進入第二週，由科技股領軍的那斯達克指數依然上漲，其驅動力來自半導體領域的實質性催化劑。此一表現與反映對整體經濟更謹慎立場的道瓊工業指數形成鮮明對比。此動態證實，資金正果斷地流向持久的增長題材，而非從市場撤退。
此一表現差異的引擎來自於人工智慧(AI)的論述，超微半導體(AMD)與OpenAI達成協議的消息，鞏固了此一論述。這強化了對AI基礎設施的投資將是多年期順風的觀點。此一特定產業的強勢，得到了穩定且隱含寬鬆的貨幣政策背景所支持。市場正忽略政府關門造成的暫時性經濟摩擦，而將焦點放在本月聯準會降息的高機率上。
固定收益市場證實了此一觀點。10年期公債殖利率的溫和上揚，在其既定區間內僅代表微不足道的變動。債券市場缺乏避險買盤，預示著投資者現階段並未將政府關門視為系統性風險。反之，市場預期政府關門對GDP每週造成的拖累，將被視為促使聯準會維持其寬鬆路徑的因素，從而為具備強勁長期增長輪廓的風險性資產，提供了有利的流動性環境。
對台灣投資者而言，今日市場重新開盤即面對此一複雜但清晰的格局。美國科技股的顯著強勢提供了明確的訊號。台北的人工智慧(AI)與半導體供應鏈，有望跟隨那斯達克指數的腳步。來自華府的整體宏觀不確定性，則意味著應採取選擇性的策略。接下來盤勢的關鍵，在於區分持續的科技週期與影響傳統經濟產業的短暫政治雜音。
週一資產焦點：美國股市指數與美國排名前五大企業
美國市場正預示著廣泛且持續的強勢。主要股市指數以強烈正向的趨勢穩固盤踞，顯示大型股與科技股普遍存在穩定且看漲的情緒。此一正面背景也反映在美國頂尖企業的表現上，關鍵的科技龍頭正展現穩定至改善的動能。
圖表一：美國股市指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
- 標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
- 費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
美國股市指數全面展現出穩定且強烈正向的趨勢。道瓊工業平均指數、標普500指數、那斯達克綜合指數、羅素2000指數以及費城半導體指數，皆維持其前一週的強烈正向評級。此一一致性，預示著廣泛的投資者信心與持續的市場動能。
圖表二：美國排名前五大企業(美元計價)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): 當前: --, 上週: --
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): 當前: --, 上週: --
美國頂尖企業的趨勢格局穩定。NVIDIA Corp、Microsoft Corp和Apple Inc均維持其強烈正向趨勢，確認了它們在當前市場中的領導角色。與此同時，Amazon.com Inc和Meta Platforms Inc則雙雙保持在中性狀態，顯示其先前的動能雖暫停，但未出現惡化跡象。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Tech Leadership Persists Amid Washington Gridlock
AI Strength Drives Tech Sector as U.S. Shutdown Continues, Setting a Clear Focus for Taipei's Reopening
By Joe 盧, CFA | October 6, 2025
Executive Summary
- Monday's U.S. session showed technology outperforming the broader market, a signal of specific sector catalysts overriding macroeconomic concerns.
- The Nasdaq advanced on the strength of the semiconductor sector's AI narrative, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a decline.
- U.S. Treasury yields moved higher but remained well within their recent trading range, indicating fixed income markets are pricing in limited immediate risk from the political stalemate.
- The ongoing government shutdown is the primary economic variable, with historical precedent pointing to a temporary drag on Q4 GDP growth, which reinforces the case for monetary easing.
- Political gridlock in Washington continues, but markets are sustained by firm expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October.
Secular growth trends, specifically the artificial intelligence investment cycle, are demonstrating resilience and decoupling from the cyclical drag of political uncertainty. While the U.S. government shutdown enters its second week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced, driven by a tangible catalyst in the semiconductor space. This performance contrasts with the Dow Jones Industrials, which reflects a more cautious stance on the broader economy. This dynamic confirms capital is flowing decisively toward durable growth themes rather than retreating from the market.
The engine of this performance difference is the AI narrative, solidified by news of a deal between AMD and OpenAI. This reinforces the thesis of investment in AI infrastructure being a multi-year tailwind. This sector-specific strength is supported by a stable and implicitly accommodative monetary policy backdrop. The market is looking past the temporary economic friction of the shutdown and focusing on the high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
Fixed income markets corroborate this view. The modest rise in the 10-year Treasury yield represented insignificant movement within its established range. This lack of a flight-to-safety bid in bonds signals investors do not perceive the shutdown as a systemic risk at this stage. Instead, the shutdown's anticipated weekly drag on GDP is viewed as a factor to keep the Federal Reserve on its easing path, providing a supportive liquidity environment for risk assets with strong secular growth profiles.
For Taiwanese investors, the market reopens today to this complex but clear picture. The pronounced strength in the U.S. technology sector provides a clear signal. Taipei's AI and semiconductor supply chains are positioned to follow the Nasdaq's lead. The broader macro uncertainty from Washington warrants a selective approach. The key for the session ahead is to distinguish between the ongoing technology cycle and the transient political noise affecting more traditional economic sectors.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity Indices & Top 5 U.S. Companies
The U.S. market is signaling broad and sustained strength. Major equity indices are holding firm with strongly positive trends, indicating a stable and bullish sentiment across large-cap and tech sectors. This positive backdrop is mirrored in the performance of top U.S. companies, where key technology leaders are exhibiting stable to improving momentum.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Across the board, U.S. equity indices demonstrate a stable and strongly positive trend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 Index, and PHLX Semiconductor Index all maintained their strongly positive ratings from the prior week. This uniformity signals broad-based investor confidence and sustained market momentum.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: --, Last Week: --
The trend landscape among top U.S. companies is stable. NVIDIA Corp, Microsoft Corp, and Apple Inc all held their strongly positive trends, confirming their leadership roles in the current market. Concurrently, Amazon.com Inc and Meta Platforms Inc both remained in a neutral state, indicating a pause in their prior momentum but no signs of deterioration.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。