•
【Joe’s華爾街脈動】聯準會助燃資產行情，美股再創新高
鴿派訊號與AI動能，蓋過美元走強及持續政治僵局的影響。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月8日 美東時間
摘要
- 在人工智慧樂觀情緒的帶動下，科技股引領美股漲勢，主要指數觸及新高。
- 美國聯準會會議紀要確認了未來降息的預期，為資產價格提供普遍支撐。
- 貴金屬價格飆升至歷史新高，反映了利率前景和持續的避險需求。
- 受外部政治和經濟疲弱的影響，美元對其他主要貨幣走強。
- 大宗商品市場展現韌性，工業金屬價格穩定，而原油價格因供應預測而回落。
美國聯準會的鴿派前景推動了基礎廣泛的資產漲勢，將美國主要股價指數推升至歷史新高。美國央行會議紀要的發布，顯示內部對於在2025年進一步降息已達成共識，這鞏固了投資者對流動性增加的預期。此一市場情緒同時驅動了成長導向的科技股，以及黃金、白銀等貴金屬資產的上漲。CBOE波動率指數下滑，反映投資者焦慮情緒減弱。美國政府關門及其對經濟數據發布的影響仍是潛在隱憂，但市場參與者目前專注於前瞻性的貨幣政策路徑。
市場漲勢集中於人工智慧領域，半導體和硬體產業股價大幅上揚。此題材動能突顯了市場對長期增長題材的關注。與此同時，貴金屬價格觸及新高，而銅等工業金屬價格也維持在近期高點附近，顯示市場對硬資產存在更廣泛的需求。風險性資產和通膨避險工具的雙重強勢，指向當前市場主要由流動性預期驅動，而非基於單一的經濟增長觀點。美元的強勢是一個顯著的例外，但其升值更多歸因於歐洲的政治不穩定，而非美國國內經濟的卓越表現。
此次盤勢為台灣市場提供了明確的啟示。美國AI產業的強勁表現，為台灣的半導體及硬體供應鏈提供了直接的順風。美國關鍵科技公司上修的財測更強化了此一正面訊號。另一方面，美元走強對新台幣構成逆風，並可能影響資本流動。台股加權指數(TAIEX)盤勢的關鍵問題在於，台灣科技股是否會跟隨美國同業的領漲勢頭，以及外匯市場將如何反應美元的升值。未來的市場情緒將取決於這些科技與匯率壓力之間的相互作用。
週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢
本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國宏觀經濟
- 投資存續期間： 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 企業獲利： 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
- 通貨膨脹： 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 貨幣流量(流入美元)： 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 消費者信心： 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
美國經濟指標最顯著的變化是企業獲利趨勢大幅轉弱，從強勁正向轉為中性。此轉變發生之際，消費者信心指標則維持其強勁正向的態勢。其他核心指標保持穩定，通貨膨脹和投資存續期間維持中性，貨幣流量則保持溫和的負向趨勢。此資訊顯示，相較於經濟的消費面，企業前景可能出現變化。
圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY)： 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: XLY)： 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: XLP)： 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: RXI)： 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: KXI)： 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
美國公債市場的趨勢變化呈現多空交錯的格局。短期公債(1-3年期)的趨勢從中性轉強為溫和正向。相較之下，中期公債(3-7年期)的指標則從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。殖利率曲線的長天期部分則展現了趨勢的持續性，7-10年期和20年期以上券種均維持其強勁的負向趨勢。10-20年期券種仍是例外，保持其強勁正向的指標。這指向市場對殖利率曲線不同區段的評估存在分歧。
👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。
📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。
📰追蹤此部落格。
💬LINE好友。
➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Equities Hit Records as Fed Fuels Broad Asset Rally
Dovish Fed signals and AI momentum overshadowed dollar strength and ongoing political gridlock.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-08
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities reached new highs as technology shares led a rally built on artificial intelligence optimism.
- Federal Reserve meeting minutes affirmed expectations for future interest rate reductions, supporting asset prices broadly.
- Precious metals surged to record levels, reflecting both rate outlooks and persistent safe-haven demand.
- The U.S. dollar strengthened against other major currencies, driven by external political and economic weakness.
- Commodity markets showed resilience with industrial metals firm while crude oil prices eased on supply forecasts.
A dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve propelled a broad-based asset rally, pushing major U.S. equity indices to record highs. The release of central bank minutes signaling a consensus for further rate reductions in 2025 solidified investor expectations for increased liquidity. This sentiment drove simultaneous gains in growth-oriented technology stocks and precious metal assets like gold and silver. The CBOE Volatility Index fell, reflecting diminished investor anxiety. The U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic data releases remain a background concern, but market participants are currently focused on the forward-looking monetary policy path.
Market leadership was concentrated in artificial intelligence, with semiconductor and enterprise hardware companies posting strong advances. This thematic momentum underscores the market's focus on secular growth stories. Concurrently, precious metals hit new peaks, and industrial metals like copper held near recent highs, suggesting a wider demand for hard assets. This dual strength in both risk assets and inflation hedges points to a market primarily driven by liquidity expectations rather than a singular view on economic growth. The U.S. dollar's strength was a notable exception, though its rise was attributed more to political instability in Europe than to domestic economic outperformance.
The session provides a clear read-through for Taiwan. Strength in the U.S. AI sector offers a direct tailwind for Taiwan's semiconductor and hardware supply chain. Upgraded guidance from key U.S. technology firms reinforces this positive signal. Conversely, the stronger U.S. dollar presents a headwind for the New Taiwan Dollar and may affect capital flows. The key questions for the TAIEX session are whether local technology shares will follow the leadership of their U.S. counterparts and how the foreign exchange market will price the dollar's advance. Forward sentiment will depend on the interplay between these technology and currency pressures.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
- Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
The most notable change in the U.S. economic indicators was a significant weakening in the trend for Corporate Earnings, which moved from strongly positive to neutral. This shift occurred while Consumer Strength maintained its strongly positive indicator. Other core indicators remained stable, with Inflation and Investment Duration holding at neutral and Currency Flow maintaining its mildly negative trend. This information suggests a potential change in the corporate outlook relative to the consumer side of the economy.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: XLY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: XLP): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: RXI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: KXI): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
A mixed pattern of trend changes appeared across the U.S. Treasury bond market. The trend for short-term bonds (1-3 Year) strengthened from neutral to mildly positive. In contrast, the indicator for medium-term bonds (3-7 Year) eased from strongly to mildly positive. The longer end of the curve showed persistence, with both the 7-10 Year and 20+ Year segments maintaining their strongly negative trends. The 10-20 Year segment remained an outlier, holding its strongly positive indicator. This points to different assessments across the yield curve.
👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.
📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.
➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。