【Joe’s華爾街脈動】政治不確定性升溫，美股自高檔回落；美元走強

獲利了結賣壓及美國政府關門疑慮，蓋過聯準會鴿派訊號的影響，美元對主要貨幣走強。

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月09日 美東時間

摘要

• 投資者在財報季及政府可能關門前減碼，美股自歷史高點下跌。
• 避險資金流入推升美元，對黃金、石油等大宗商品構成壓力。
• 聯準會會議紀要確認2025年的降息前景，為風險情緒提供支撐。
• 市場領漲族群狹隘，AI相關半導體股表現突出，然大型科技股則下跌。
• 銅價因供應中斷而上漲，擺脫大宗商品普遍疲弱的趨勢。

投資者在近期歷史高點後確保獲利，美股市場的上漲動能暫歇。此次回檔主要由戰術性風險規避所驅動，而非基本面前景的轉變。主要催化劑為即將到來的政府關門及第三季財報季的開端，引發市場謹慎情緒。儘管聯準會會議紀要強化了明年的政策寬鬆路徑，但華府的短期政治風險主導了當日交易活動，並支撐了防禦性部位的建立。

當日的價格走勢揭示了市場分歧的看法。在股市方面，漲勢僅限於特定題材，如人工智慧領域的關鍵半導體股走強，而更廣泛的科技與成長股指數則相對落後。在大宗商品方面，隨著停火協議宣布，中東地緣政治風險已降溫，石油價格回落。黃金也因美元走強而修正下跌，美元受惠於避險資金流入及歐洲政治不穩定。銅是個顯著的例外，因全球供應受限而上漲。

此次美股盤勢為台灣市場呈現了複雜的背景。美國半導體股針對性的強勢，為國內AI供應鏈提供了正面訊號，包含從台積電(TSMC)到相關上游供應商。然而，美元走強對新台幣(TWD)及區域貨幣構成直接逆風。台股加權指數(TAIEX)盤勢的關鍵問題在於，半導體產業的特定正面動能，是否能抵銷整體市場的避險基調，以及本地市場將如何反應美國短期政治風險與聯準會長期鴿派政策路徑之間的拉鋸。

週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢

本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。

圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)

• 美元(貨幣對: USDTWD)： 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
• 歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD)： 當前: --, 一週前: --
• 日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD)： 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
• 人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD)： 當前: ▲, 一週前: --
• 加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD)： 當前: --, 一週前: --

幾種主要貨幣兌新台幣的匯率浮現了新趨勢。美元和人民幣的指標雙雙從中性轉強為溫和正向。相反地，日圓趨勢則走弱，從中性轉為溫和負向。歐元和加幣的指標則維持中性。此數據顯示，外匯市場內對美元和人民幣的偏好度，正逐漸超越日圓。

圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)

• 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE)： 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA)： 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: --
• 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB)： 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP)： 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT)： 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲

過去一週，大宗商品綜合指數的趨勢變化呈現多空分歧。農業類大宗商品出現顯著下跌，其趨勢從中性轉為強勁負向。相較之下，能源類大宗商品的負向動能有所緩和。數位資產的正向動能亦見減弱。工業金屬和貴金屬的趨勢則未改變，分別維持在溫和正向和強勁正向。這顯示影響各個大宗商品產業的因素有所不同。

👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。

📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。

📰追蹤此部落格。

💬LINE好友。

➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。

本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Stocks Retreat From Highs Amid Political Risk; Dollar Firms

Profit-taking and U.S. shutdown concerns overshadowed dovish Federal Reserve signals, strengthening the dollar against major currencies.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-09

Executive Summary

• U.S. equities fell from record levels as investors reduced exposure ahead of earnings season and a potential government shutdown.
• The U.S. dollar strengthened on haven flows, weighing on commodities like gold and oil.
• Federal Reserve meeting minutes confirmed the outlook for interest rate cuts in 2025, supporting a floor for risk sentiment.
• Leadership was narrow, with AI-related semiconductors outperforming while mega-cap technology stocks declined.
• Copper prices rose on supply disruptions, bucking the broader trend of commodity weakness.

The U.S. market's upward momentum paused as investors secured gains from recent record highs. The retreat was driven by tactical de-risking, not a fundamental shift in outlook. The primary catalysts were the approaching government shutdown and the beginning of the third-quarter earnings season, prompting caution. While Federal Reserve minutes reinforced a policy easing path for next year, immediate political risks in Washington dominated the session's trading activity and supported defensive positioning.

The session's price action revealed selective sentiment. Within equities, strength was confined to specific themes like artificial intelligence, where key semiconductor names advanced. Broader technology and growth indices lagged. In commodities, oil prices eased as Middle East geopolitical risks subsided following a ceasefire announcement. Gold also corrected lower, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar, which saw demand from haven flows and European political instability. Copper was a notable exception, rallying due to global supply constraints.

The U.S. session presents a complex backdrop for the Taiwan market. The targeted strength in U.S. semiconductor stocks provides a constructive signal for the domestic AI supply chain, from TSMC to related upstream suppliers. A firming U.S. dollar, however, creates a direct headwind for the TWD and regional currencies. The key questions for the TAIEX session are whether the positive semiconductor-specific momentum can offset the broader risk-off tone, and how local markets will price the tension between near-term U.S. political risk and a dovish long-term Fed policy path.

Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends

This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs in TWD terms and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)

• U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
• Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --

New trends emerged across several major currencies relative to the New Taiwan Dollar. The U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan both saw their indicators strengthen from neutral to mildly positive. Conversely, the Japanese Yen trend weakened, shifting from neutral to mildly negative. Both the Euro and the Canadian Dollar indicators remained neutral. This data suggests a developing preference for the USD and CNY over the JPY within foreign exchange markets.

Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)

• Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: --
• Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The commodity complex shows a mixed set of trend changes over the past week. A notable decline occurred in agricultural commodities, where the trend moved from neutral to strongly negative. In contrast, the negative momentum in energy commodities eased. Digital assets also saw their positive momentum ease. Industrial and precious metals trends were unchanged, holding at mildly positive and strongly positive, respectively. This points to different factors influencing the various commodity sectors.

👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.

📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.

📰Follow this blog.

💬Connect with us on LINE.

➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。