【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美科技股賣壓，預示台灣半導體產業逆風

2025/10/11

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美中貿易摩擦再起，為出口導向的科技供應鏈構成短期壓力。

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月11日美東時間

摘要

美中貿易敵對情勢驟然升級，導致美股急遽反轉下跌。
半導體類股領跌，主要產業基準指數普遍疲弱。
廣泛的避險情緒，顯示市場對全球增長前景的擔憂加劇。
台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的表現，預示台股加權指數(TAIEX)重新開盤後將面臨直接壓力。
台灣從IC設計到封裝的整體半導體供應鏈，皆面臨新的逆風。

由於美中貿易緊張局勢升級，美國股市收盤急遽下跌。川普總統關於可能對中國進口商品加徵關稅的言論，加上中國對稀土礦物實施新的出口管制，引發了市場對美中關係的新一輪擔憂。科技股與半導體股成為此波下跌的風暴核心，逆轉了市場近期的上升趨勢。此一發展蓋過了市場先前對聯準會潛在寬鬆政策及AI相關持續需求的關注。美國關鍵科技指數的急遽下挫，反映了市場對地緣政治風險的迅速重新定價。

此效應對台灣的影響是直接且即時的。台積電ADR及費城半導體指數的顯著下跌，是台股加權指數(TAIEX)強而有力的領先指標，對大型電子權值股的影響尤其顯著。鑑於台灣在全球半導體供應鏈中的關鍵角色，市場極易受到全球兩大經濟體以科技為核心的貿易爭端影響。此一事態發展為台灣的出口導向經濟，增添了新一層的不確定性。

展望下週一台股的交易盤勢，首要焦點在於本地市場在假期過後，將如何吸收美國的利空消息。台積電及其供應鏈相關企業的開盤走勢，將為整體市場設定基調。投資者必須密切關注此地緣政治衝擊，是會引發基礎廣泛的風險規避，或是在股價下跌後浮現承接買盤，進而考驗市場的潛在信念。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)，運用我們的趨勢信念矩陣指標所呈現的一週趨勢變化。此分析僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。

圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)

Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲

美國規模最大的幾檔ETF，其趨勢力道出現了一致的減弱。涵蓋標普500指數、整體股市及那斯達克100指數的ETF指標，在過去一週皆從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。此同步放緩的現象，顯示美股的上升動能已出現普遍性的趨緩。對於持有台灣部位的投資組合而言，此一格局指向全球風險環境可能正由美國市場帶頭轉變。

圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)

元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

台灣市場週五休市，但截至週四，台灣規模最大的幾檔ETF趨勢指標在一週內維持穩定，呈現出市值型與高股息策略之間的分歧。兩檔台灣50相關ETF(0050, 006208)維持其強勁正向的趨勢，顯示核心大型股市場的強勢格局持續。相較之下，高股息ETF則維持其既有趨勢，從溫和正向到強勁負向不等。這突顯了台灣以科技股為權重的加權指數，相較於趨勢放緩的美國大盤，展現出相對強勢。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Tech Sell-Off Signals Taiwan Semiconductor Headwinds

Renewed U.S.-China trade friction creates near-term pressure for the export-oriented technology supply chain.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-11

Executive Summary

U.S. equities reversed sharply lower following an abrupt escalation in U.S.-China trade hostilities.
The semiconductor sector led the decline, with significant weakness across key industry benchmarks.
The broad risk-off sentiment signals rising concerns over global growth prospects.
TSMC's ADR performance indicates immediate pressure on the TAIEX upon reopening.
Taiwan's entire semiconductor supply chain, from integrated circuit design to packaging, faces new headwinds.

U.S. equity markets closed sharply lower, due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Trump's comments about potential tariff hikes on Chinese imports, coupled with China's new export controls on rare-earth minerals created new concerns about China-U.S. relations. Technology and semiconductor stocks were at the epicenter of the decline, reversing the market's recent upward trend. This move overshadowed prior market focus on potential Federal Reserve easing and ongoing AI-related demand. The sharp downturn in key U.S. technology indices reflects a rapid repricing of geopolitical risk.

The transmission mechanism to Taiwan is direct and immediate. The significant decline in TSMC's ADR and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are powerful leading indicators for the TAIEX, particularly for large-cap electronics stocks. Given Taiwan's critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain, the market is exceptionally exposed to technology-centric trade disputes between the world's two largest economies. The development introduces a new layer of uncertainty for the island's export-dependent economy.

Looking to the next Taiwan trading session on Monday, the primary focus is on how local markets absorb the negative U.S. lead after a holiday. The opening price action of TSMC and its supply chain affiliates will set the tone for the entire market. It is crucial to monitor whether this geopolitical shock prompts a broad-based de-risking or if buying interest emerges at lower levels, testing the market's underlying conviction.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese ETFs by assets under management using our Trend Conviction Matrix indicators. The analysis is for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

Vanguard S 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
SPDR S 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
iShares Core S 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲

A uniform weakening of trend strength occurred across the largest U.S. ETFs. The indicators for the S 500, the total stock market, and the Nasdaq-100 all eased from strongly positive to mildly positive over the past week. This coordinated softening suggests a broad-based moderation in upward momentum for U.S. equities. For Taiwan-exposed portfolios, this pattern points to a potential change in the global risk environment led by the U.S. market.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Trading in Taiwan was closed on Friday, but up until Thursday, trend indicators for Taiwan's largest ETFs were stable over the week, showing a split between market-cap and dividend strategies. The two Taiwan Top 50 ETFs (0050, 006208) maintained their strongly positive trends, indicating persistent strength in the core large-cap market. In contrast, high-dividend ETFs held their existing trends, ranging from mildly positive to strongly negative. This highlights relative strength in Taiwan's technology-weighted main index compared to the broader U.S. market's trend softening.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。