美元走弱的趨勢，或將持續到2025年底

隨著10月來臨，國內開啟歡快的長假模式，國際上卻“風波”不止。

美國東部時間2025年10月1日，由於美國國會沒能按時批准政府預算，導致部分聯邦機構沒錢運作，美國政府正式宣佈“關門”。這個特殊現像一度讓廣大網友“線上吃瓜”。

與此同時，美元走弱的趨勢也在加劇。從儲備來看，美元在全球央行外匯儲備中的佔比正在逐漸下降，今年二季度末，美元在全球外匯儲備中佔比56.32%，較一季度末下降了1.47個百分點，當前已降至三十年來最低水平。從匯率來看，截至10月3日，美元兌人民幣匯率回落至7.1190，同時美元指數報97.8749，較年初高點累計貶值約10.7%。

美元的持續貶值勢必會引起國內資本市場共振，也將促進全球資本的加速流動。多家機構預測，美元走弱的趨勢，至少將持續到2025年底，甚至有機構預期2026年一整年也將延續。

但小編認為，從投資角度來看，需謹慎預期並做好相應佈局，第一步可以暫時將美元弱勢的預期設定為2025年底，同時警惕美國通脹或經濟意外好轉引發的階段性反彈風險。第二步觀測國內外重大事件，特別是2025年底至2026年上半年間美聯儲的降息行動，隨時作調整。

As October arrives, China enters a cheerful long-holiday mode, while the world faces ongoing "turbulence." On October 1, 2025 (Eastern Time), the U.S. government officially shut down after Congress failed to approve the federal budget on time, leaving some federal agencies without funding. This unusual event quickly became a hot topic online.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar's weakness is deepening. Its share in global central bank reserves fell to a 30-year low of 56.32% by end-Q2, down 1.47 percentage points from end-Q1. As of October 3, USD/CNY dropped to 7.1190 and the U.S. Dollar Index stood at 97.8749, down about 10.7% from this year's peak. Sustained dollar depreciation will impact China's capital market and accelerate global capital flows. Most institutions expect this weakness to last at least until end-2025, some even throughout 2026.

From an investment perspective, stay cautious: 1) Tentatively expect dollar weakness until end-2025 and watch for rebound risks from unexpected U.S. inflation or economic improvement; 2) Monitor major events, especially Fed rate cuts from end-2025 to H1 2026, and adjust timely.

弱美元的環境下，全球資金將加速流向人民幣資產，股市、債市、黃金等多個市場都將迎來大量外資下注。

股市將成為外資加大增持的核心領域。從歷史資料來看，美聯儲降息週期啟動後，國內權益類資產往往能獲得超額收益，其中進口依賴型與高成長性板塊最受益。例如，半導體、新能源等科技板塊因裝置進口成本下降與融資環境寬鬆，估值修復態勢顯著；而航空業憑藉航油進口成本降低與千億級美元債務的匯兌收益，盈利預期也在持續改善中。

究其原因，國內資產估值優勢成為核心吸引力。從市盈率來看，滬深300指數市盈率為13.32倍，遠遠低於27.87倍的標普500和35.09倍的納斯達克100，估值修復空間尚存。從外資流入規模來看，僅2025年上半年，外資全面淨流入國內資產規模已經超2024全年的60%，至9月外資持有A股的市值攀升至2.57萬億元，佔A股總市值的比例達2%。

債市也迎來組態窗口期。自美聯儲降息後，美債收益率回落，中美利差從倒掛轉為收窄，減輕了人民幣匯率貶值壓力，加上國內實施寬鬆的貨幣政策，推動國內債券收益率下行。資料顯示，境外機構持有中國債券規模已達4.4萬億元，國債因相對收益優勢成為最大持倉品種。

黃金市場正經歷強勁的牛市行情。10月3日，倫敦現貨黃金價格攀升至3860.84美元/盎司，國內黃金T+D合約單日上漲1.68%，滬金主力合約價格同步走高至874.40元/克，年初買入的銀行投資金條每克獲利已超100元。全球各大央行掀起的購金潮也在推高金價。

In a weak dollar environment, global capital will flow faster into RMB assets, with heavy foreign investment in stocks, bonds and gold. Stocks will be the core for increased foreign holdings. Historically, after the Fed starts cutting rates, domestic equities tend to deliver excess returns, benefiting import-dependent and high-growth sectors most. For example, semiconductors and new energy gain from lower import costs and looser financing; aviation improves profits via cheaper jet fuel and forex gains on $100b+ debt.

Valuation advantage drives this appeal. The CSI 300’s P/E is 13.32, far below S&P 500’s 27.87 and Nasdaq 100’s 35.09. Foreign inflows in H1 2025 exceeded 60% of 2024’s total; by Sept, foreign A-share holdings hit ¥2.57t (2% of total market cap).

Bonds also offer a window. Since Fed cuts, U.S. yields have fallen, narrowing the China-U.S. spread and easing RMB pressure. With loose domestic policy, bond yields declined. Overseas institutions hold ¥4.4t in Chinese bonds, with treasuries as top holdings.

Gold is in a strong bull market. On Oct 3, London spot gold hit $3,860.84/oz; domestic gold T+D rose 1.68%, Shanghai Gold main contract reached ¥874.40/g. Bank gold bars bought this year yield over ¥100/g. Central bank gold purchases further boost prices.

受匯率影響，進口型企業將迎來紅利期，而部分出口型企業將面臨壓力。

可預期的是，受益板塊將集中在進口依賴與高外債領域。像原油、鐵礦砂等大宗商品的進口成本大幅下降，前8個月我國進口鐵礦砂均價已經下跌14.1%，原油均價下跌12.9%，極大降低製造業企業的原材料成本。與此同時，除了在股市上已經明顯受益的造紙、航空、科技板塊外，房地產行業也將獲得喘息空間，頭部房企20%~30%的美元債務壓力隨著人民幣升值得以緩解。

而承壓的主要是低附加值出口行業。紡織等勞動密集型行業前8個月出口額同比下降1.5%，在人民幣相對升值情況下，這些企業原有的價格競爭力下降。經測算，人民幣每升值5%，這些企業利潤可能被壓縮8%~12%。

與之相反，高附加值出口行業將逆勢增長。例如，前8個月機電產品出口增長9.2%，積體電路出口增長23.3%，汽車出口增長11.9%。得益於“一帶一路”的建設，我國對共建國家的進出口占比達51.7%，對美貿易降至9.2%，有效對沖了美元區需求的波動。

Exchange rate movements will bring a dividend period for import-oriented enterprises, while some export-oriented ones face pressure. Beneficiaries will focus on import-dependent sectors and those with high foreign debt. Import costs of bulk commodities like crude oil and iron ore have dropped significantly: in the first 8 months, China’s average iron ore import price fell 14.1% and crude oil by 12.9%, slashing raw material costs for manufacturers. Besides paper, aviation and tech sectors (already benefiting in the stock market), real estate gets breathing room—top developers see 20%-30% of their USD debt pressure eased by RMB appreciation.

Low-value-added exporters are under strain. Labor-intensive industries like textiles saw exports drop 1.5% YoY in the first 8 months; RMB appreciation weakens their price competitiveness. Estimates show every 5% RMB appreciation may cut their profits by 8%-12%.

In contrast, high-value-added exporters grow against the trend. For example, in the first 8 months, mechanical and electrical products exports rose 9.2%, integrated circuits by 23.3%, and automobiles by 11.9%. Due to the Belt and Road, China’s trade with co-construction countries accounts for 51.7% of total, while trade with the U.S. falls to 9.2%, effectively hedging demand fluctuations in the dollar zone.

面對未來一段時期美元持續走弱的態勢，企業和普通投資者都需要做好相應佈局。傳統的美元投資邏輯需要調整。

對於企業而言，這是調結構、降成本的契機。出口型企業可以通過外匯期貨、期權等金融工具鎖定匯率，做好匯率風險對沖措施，避免利潤被短期波動侵蝕，而高外債企業可以藉機最佳化債務結構，將美元債務及時置換為人民幣融資。同時，進一步深耕東南亞、中東等新興市場，通過本地化生產降低匯率敏感度，通過加大研發投入提升產品附加值，從而降低價格競爭依賴性。

對於投資者而言，需要適當調低美元存款比例，增加人民幣計價的理財產品，以及優質基金組態，重點關注科技、消費等板塊。同時做好避險資產的組態，可以通過黃金ETF、實物黃金等方式，將黃金納入資產組合，對沖貨幣貶值風險。有跨境消費或留學需求的居民，可以在匯率有利期兌換外匯。 (無界社Economic Views)