•
【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國科技股反彈，為台灣AI與半導體產業創造強勁順風
美中貿易論述放緩及關鍵AI晶片協議，預示台灣核心科技出口動能再現。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月13日 美東時間
摘要
- 在貿易論述放緩的背景下，科技股與半導體股引領美股急劇反彈。
- 一項重大的AI晶片協議激勵了晶片製造商的漲勢，突顯了市場對AI基礎設施的強勁長期需求。
- 黃金等避險資產亦上漲，顯示在地緣政治摩擦未解之際，投資者潛在的謹慎情緒依然存在。
- 台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的強勁表現，預示台灣半導體族群將正面開盤。
- 美國投資者對AI硬體重燃的興趣，強化了台灣伺服器及零組件供應鏈的戰略價值。
美國市場上演顯著反轉，由科技股及半導體股引領大盤全面復甦。催化劑來自川普總統對美中貿易摩擦的語氣放緩，緩解了引發前一交易日下跌的直接擔憂。此一市場情緒的轉變，因博通(Broadcom)與OpenAI宣布里程碑式的合作消息而得到放大，強化了AI基礎設施持續的資本投資週期，並使相關晶片製造商受惠。
此效應對台灣的影響是直接且強而有力的。台積電ADR的急遽上漲，為台灣從晶圓代工到IC設計與封裝的整體半導體生態系，提供了明確的領先訊號。此一正面動能更受到國內催化劑的放大，包含鴻海(Hon Hai)與輝達(NVIDIA)合作在高雄建立AI工廠。此一發展穩固地將台灣置於全球AI建置的中心位置。較為緩和的美中貿易論述，也為台灣以出口為導向的科技產業，移除了主要的宏觀障礙。
展望未來，關鍵在於評估此一市場情緒轉變的持久性。即將到來的美國企業財報季，對於驗證AI相關支出的持續性預期至關重要。「趨勢指標矩陣」顯示，此次急遽反轉後的續漲動能值得密切觀察。在台股加權指數(TAIEX)的交易時段，監測台灣核心科技類股是否能持續領漲，將是確認此波新升勢強度的必要關鍵。
週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢
本摘要總結了美國關鍵指數及領先大型股，運用我們的趨勢指標矩陣指標所呈現的一週趨勢變化。此分析僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：美國股價指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
美國廣泛的股票市場中，可觀察到一種趨勢放緩的格局。道瓊工業指數和標普500指數的趨勢，皆從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。相較之下，以科技為核心的指數，包括那斯達克綜合指數和費城半導體指數，則維持其強勁正向的趨勢。這指向科技產業的強勢格局持續，此為台灣出口導向電子產業的關鍵考量因素，而與此同時，更廣泛的美國市場則顯現出部分動能流失的跡象。
圖表二：美國前五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 蘋果(Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- Meta Platforms Inc (META): 當前: --, 一週前: --
美國領先科技公司的趨勢指標呈現分歧的景象。輝達(NVIDIA)持續展現強勁正向的趨勢，與整體半導體指數的強勢一致。然而，微軟(Microsoft)的趨勢已從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。蘋果(Apple)維持其溫和正向趨勢，而亞馬遜(Amazon)和Meta則保持中性。對於持有台灣科技供應鏈曝險的投資組合而言，輝達的持續強勢是一個值得注意的數據點，而其他指標股的變化則暗示著一個更為分化的需求環境。
📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢信念矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。
如果您覺得這份研究有價值：
👍為這篇文章按讚。
➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Tech Rebound Creates Strong Tailwind for Taiwan AI & Semiconductor Sectors
Easing U.S.-China trade rhetoric and a key AI chip deal signal renewed momentum for Taiwan's core technology exports.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-13
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities recovered sharply, led by technology and semiconductor stocks on easing trade rhetoric.
- A significant AI chip deal fueled a rally in chipmakers, underscoring strong secular demand for AI infrastructure.
- Safe-haven assets like gold also advanced, indicating underlying investor caution persists amid unresolved geopolitical friction.
- The strong performance of TSMC's ADR suggests a positive open for the Taiwan semiconductor complex.
- Renewed U.S. investor appetite for AI hardware reinforces the strategic value of Taiwan's server and component supply chain.
U.S. markets executed a significant reversal, with technology and semiconductor shares leading a broad recovery. The catalyst was a moderation in tone from President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade friction, alleviating immediate concerns that drove the prior session's decline. This shift in sentiment was amplified by news of a landmark collaboration between Broadcom and OpenAI, reinforcing the persistent capital investment cycle in AI infrastructure and benefiting associated chipmakers.
The transmission mechanism to Taiwan is direct and potent. The sharp rally in TSMC's ADR provides a clear leading signal for Taiwan's entire semiconductor ecosystem, from foundries to IC design and packaging. This positive impulse is magnified by domestic catalysts, including Hon Hai's partnership with NVIDIA to develop an AI factory in Kaohsiung. This development firmly anchors Taiwan at the center of the global AI build-out. Softer U.S.-China rhetoric also removes a primary macro obstacle for Taiwan's export-focused technology sector.
Looking forward, the key is assessing the durability of this sentiment shift. The upcoming U.S. corporate earnings season will be critical for validating expectations of sustained AI-related spending. The Trend Conviction Matrix suggests this sharp reversal warrants close observation for follow-through momentum. Monitoring for sustained leadership from Taiwan's core technology sectors during the TAIEX session will be essential to confirm the strength of this renewed uptrend.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Stock Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. indices and leading large-cap companies using our Trend Conviction Matrix indicators. The analysis is for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A pattern of trend moderation is observable in broad U.S. equity markets. Both the Dow Jones and S 500 indices saw their trends soften from strongly positive to mildly positive. In contrast, technology-centric indices including the Nasdaq Composite and the PHLX Semiconductor Index maintained their strongly positive trends. This points to persistent strength in the technology sector, a key consideration for Taiwan's export-oriented electronics industry, while the broader U.S. market shows some loss of momentum.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: --, Last Week: --
The trend indicators for leading U.S. technology companies present a mixed picture. NVIDIA continues to show a strongly positive trend, aligning with the strength seen in the broader semiconductor index. Microsoft's trend, however, has moderated from strongly positive to mildly positive. Apple held its mildly positive trend, while Amazon and Meta remained neutral. For portfolios with exposure to Taiwan's technology supply chain, NVIDIA's sustained strength is a notable data point, whereas the changes in other bellwethers suggest a more differentiated demand environment.
📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.
💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.
👥Message us on Facebook to join the group.
if you found this research valuable:
👍'Like' this post.
📰Follow this blog for new market updates.
➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。