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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美股避險情緒籠罩，台灣科技股動能受矚
美中緊張局勢加劇、科技領漲股大幅回落，預示轉向防禦性佈局或為審慎之舉。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月14日 美東時間
摘要
- 地緣政治摩擦引發美國市場廣泛的避險操作，科技與AI產業受創最重，市場波動加劇。
- 黃金與美元等避險資產吸引資金流入，而石油等工業大宗商品則顯著走弱。
- 強勁的美國銀行業財報遭宏觀經濟擔憂所掩蓋，顯示市場情緒目前正主導基本面。
- 美國半導體龍頭股的急遽反轉，為台灣仰賴AI題材的供應鏈構成直接逆風。
- 美國市場的防禦性輪動，為投資者提供了觀察航運及特定金融等非科技類股相對強勢的契機。
美國交易時段的基調是明確的風險規避。美中貿易緊張關係再起是主要催化劑，拖累股市走低，並由科技與AI相關個股領跌。市場波動率指標急升，以及資金大量流入黃金等傳統避險資產，確認了此波避險趨勢。油價走弱則突顯了市場對全球需求的擔憂加劇。
此一美國市場的避險情緒，將直接傳導至台灣以出口為導向、並側重科技股的市場。美國領先半導體股在經歷一段強勁表現後回落，對台股加權指數(TAIEX)構成直接壓力。台股近期的巨額成交量及其後的反轉，已反映了此一敏感性。此環境顯示，先前推動指數上漲的高貝他值(high-beta)動能可能暫歇，迫使市場重新評估純科技股以外的類股輪動。
台股盤勢的當前焦點，在於評估AI硬體題材在這些宏觀逆風下的持久性。儘管長期需求驅動因素依然存在，但短期市場情緒已經惡化，監控資本流向將至關重要。投資者應觀察資金是否從近期強勢的半導體族群，輪動至貿易摩擦的受惠者(如特定航運公司)，或轉入更具防禦性的內需導向金融股。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵亞洲股價指數(以美元計價)及台灣領先大型股(以新台幣計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：區域股價指數(美元計價)
- 台灣(代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 香港(代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
- 新加坡(代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 日本(代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 南韓(代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
過去一週，亞洲主要股市的正面動能普遍放緩。台灣、新加坡和日本的趨勢指標，皆從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。香港的趨勢評估轉變更為顯著，從溫和正向轉為中性。與此區域格局形成對比的是，南韓市場指標是唯一維持強勢者，保持其強勁正向的趨勢。此數據指向該區域的前景已普遍趨緩。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台灣積體電路製造(Ticker: 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 鴻海精密工業(Ticker: 2317): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
- 聯發科技(Ticker: 2454): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 廣達電腦(Ticker: 2382): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
- 台達電子工業(Ticker: 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
台灣最大型企業的趨勢指標呈現顯著分歧。鴻海精密與廣達電腦的趨勢評估雙雙遭大幅下調，從強勁正向轉為中性。相反地，台積電與台達電則守住其強勁正向的趨勢，展現持續的韌性。聯發科的趨勢也未改變，維持其強勁負向的指標。此資訊突顯了主要硬體組裝廠的評估出現明顯轉變，而其他領域的龍頭企業則相對持穩。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
U.S. Risk-Off Mood Puts Taiwan Tech Momentum on Watch
Heightened U.S.-China tensions and a sharp drop in tech leadership suggest a shift towards defensive positioning is prudent.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-14
Executive Summary
- Geopolitical friction triggered a broad U.S. risk-off move, hitting technology and AI sectors hardest and elevating market volatility.
- Safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar attracted inflows, while industrial commodities like oil weakened significantly.
- Strong U.S. bank earnings were overshadowed by macroeconomic concerns, indicating sentiment is currently driving markets over fundamentals.
- The sharp reversal in U.S. semiconductor leaders creates a direct headwind for Taiwan’s AI-leveraged supply chain.
- U.S. defensive rotation signals an opportunity to monitor non-tech sectors like shipping and select financials for relative strength.
The U.S. session was defined by a decisive shift away from risk. Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China were the primary catalyst, sending equities lower with technology and AI names leading the decline. This flight to safety was confirmed by a sharp increase in market volatility metrics and strong inflows into traditional havens such as gold. Weaker oil prices underscore growing concerns about global demand.
This U.S. risk-off sentiment transmits directly to Taiwan's export-oriented, tech-heavy market. The pullback in leading U.S. semiconductor names after a period of strong performance puts immediate pressure on the TAIEX. The recent high trading volume and subsequent reversal in Taipei already reflect this sensitivity. This environment suggests the high-beta momentum that propelled the index could pause, forcing a re-evaluation of sector leadership away from pure-play technology.
The immediate focus for the Taiwan session is assessing the durability of the AI hardware theme against these macro headwinds. While long-term demand drivers remain, short-term sentiment has soured. Monitoring capital flows will be critical. Observe if capital rotates from the recently strong semiconductor complex into beneficiaries of trade friction, like specific shipping lines, or into more defensive domestic-oriented financials.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key Asian equity indices in USD terms and for Taiwan's leading large-cap companies in TWD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
- Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A broad easing of positive momentum was observed across major Asian equity markets this past week. The trend indicators for Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan all moderated from strongly positive to mildly positive. Hong Kong's trend assessment showed a more pronounced shift, moving from mildly positive to neutral. In contrast to this regional pattern, South Korea's market indicator was the sole holdout, maintaining its strongly positive trend. This data points to a widespread softening in the outlook for the region.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Trend indicators for Taiwan's largest companies show a significant split. Hon Hai Precision and Quanta Computer both experienced sharp downgrades, with their trend assessments moving from strongly positive to neutral. Conversely, Taiwan Semiconductor and Delta Electronics held their strongly positive trends, showing persistent strength. MediaTek also remained unchanged, maintaining its strongly negative indicator. This information highlights a clear change in assessment for major hardware assemblers, while leaders in other segments held their ground.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。