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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】台積電領軍訊號，穿透美國宏觀雜音
台灣AI供應鏈強勁基本面，與美國宏觀因素驅動的波動脫鉤。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月16日 美東時間
摘要
- 美國區域性銀行信貸品質疑慮再起，引發避險情緒，美股下跌。
- 政府持續關門，掩蓋了經濟數據，加劇不確定性並提高對聯準會降息的押注。
- 儘管大盤疲弱，在強勁AI需求訊號支撐下，半導體類股展現相對強勢。
- 台積電創紀錄的業績與樂觀的財測，確立其領導地位，為台股加權指數(TAIEX)提供基本面支撐。
美國市場的主流論述是避險情緒再起。對區域性銀行信貸品質的擔憂使投資者感到不安，導致股市普遍下跌及波動率急遽上升。此一市場情緒更因政府延長關門而放大，此舉正造成數據真空並加劇不確定性。因此，資本流入黃金和美國公債等避險資產，推低了基準殖利率。
此一由美國宏觀因素驅動的恐慌，與台灣科技產業所釋放的基本面實力，形成直接對比。台積電創紀錄的盈餘，以及對AI需求和先進製程技術的強勁前瞻指引，驗證了全球科技週期的韌性。儘管台積電的美國存託憑證(ADR) 因美國市場的廣泛拋售而承壓，但其根本的財報內容為台灣整體半導體生態系提供了強勁的正面動能。美國市場情緒疲弱與台灣基本面強勁之間的此一分歧，是投資者須面對的關鍵動態。
台灣盤勢的當前焦點，在於觀察本地市場的強勢，是否能與美國的波動脫鉤。監控法人資金流向將是評估市場對國內增長故事信念的關鍵。半導體供應鏈的持續領漲，特別是在台積電展望中所強調的領域，將可確認基本面實力正壓過外部的宏觀逆風。我們的「趨勢指標矩陣」顯示，台灣核心科技題材的方向性清晰度正在增強。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
- 日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
兌新台幣的貨幣趨勢中，主要變化為加幣走弱。其趨勢指標在過去一週從中性轉為溫和負向。其他主要貨幣對則維持穩定。美元和人民幣雙雙維持其溫和正向的趨勢。歐元持平於中性讀數，日圓則持續呈現溫和負向的趨勢。此資訊顯示，市場對加幣的評估出現特定轉變，而其他主要貨幣對則相對持穩。
圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
- 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
大宗商品綜合指數呈現多空分歧的趨勢變化。能源類大宗商品的趨勢從溫和負向轉弱為強勁負向，而數位資產的指標則從溫和正向轉為溫和負向。相較之下，農業類大宗商品的趨勢則有所改善，從強勁負向緩和至溫和負向。工業金屬和貴金屬的指標未變，分別維持其溫和正向和強勁正向的趨勢。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
TSMC Leadership Signal Pierces U.S. Macro Noise
Strong fundamentals in Taiwan's AI supply chain are diverging from U.S. macro-driven volatility.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-16
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities declined on renewed regional bank credit quality concerns, driving a flight to safety.
- The ongoing government shutdown obscures economic data, increasing uncertainty and bets on Fed rate cuts.
- The semiconductor sector showed relative strength on strong AI demand signals, despite broader market weakness.
- TSMC's record results and optimistic guidance confirm its leadership, providing a fundamental anchor for the TAIEX.
The dominant U.S. market narrative is a renewed risk-off posture. Concerns over credit quality at regional banks unsettled investors, leading to broad equity declines and a surge in volatility. This sentiment was amplified by an extended government shutdown, which is creating a data vacuum and increasing uncertainty. Consequently, capital flowed into safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries, pushing benchmark yields lower.
This U.S. macro-driven fear directly contrasts with the fundamental strength signaled by Taiwan's technology sector. TSMC's record-setting earnings and robust forward guidance on AI demand and advanced process technology validate the global tech cycle's strength. While TSMC's ADR experienced pressure from the broad U.S. selloff, the underlying report provides a strong positive impulse for Taiwan's entire semiconductor ecosystem. This divergence between weak U.S. sentiment and strong Taiwan fundamentals is the critical dynamic for investors.
The immediate focus for the Taiwan session is observing whether local market strength can decouple from U.S. volatility. Monitoring institutional flows will be key to assessing conviction in the domestic growth story. Continued leadership from the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in areas highlighted by TSMC's outlook, would confirm that fundamental strength is overriding external macro headwinds. The Trend Conviction Matrix shows strengthening directional clarity for Taiwan's core technology theme.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
The primary change in currency trends against the TWD was a weakening in the Canadian Dollar. Its trend indicator moved from neutral to mildly negative over the past week. The other major currency pairs remained stable. The U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan both maintained their mildly positive trends. The Euro held its neutral reading, and the Japanese Yen continued to show a mildly negative trend. This information suggests a specific shift in the assessment for the Canadian Dollar, while other major pairs held steady.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
A mixed set of trend changes was observed across the commodities complex. The trend for Energy Commodities weakened from mildly negative to strongly negative, and the indicator for Digital Assets moved from mildly positive to mildly negative. In contrast, the trend for Agricultural Commodities showed an improvement, easing from strongly negative to mildly negative. The indicators for Industrial and Precious Metals were unchanged, holding their mildly positive and strongly positive trends, respectively.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。