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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】投資人拋售貴金屬，轉進價值股，道瓊指數創歷史新高
黃金爆發大規模賣壓，預示市場決定性轉變；然美國科技股動能減弱，與台灣持續由AI驅動的漲勢形成對比。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月21日 美東時間
摘要
- 市場見證了一次顯著的類股輪動，投資者大舉拋售避險資產，買入價值導向的股票，推動道瓊工業指數創下新高紀錄。
- 道瓊指數在強勁的工業股財報帶動下飆升，而那斯達克指數則步履蹣跚，此訊號顯示隨著科技股動能暫歇，市場已從成長股明顯分歧至價值股。
- 儘管股市呈現風險偏好情緒，十年期公債殖利率仍維持在4.0%以下的低檔，反映市場對聯準會降息的持續預期。
- 企業財報成為焦點，通用汽車(General Motors)與3M等工業龍頭的強勁業績，為市場的類股輪動提供了強大催化劑。
- 圍繞即將到來的美中貿易談判的持續樂觀情緒，繼續支撐正面的市場氣氛，並降低了對避險資產的需求。
市場的首要訊號是資金決定性地強力輪動，撤出貴金屬；隨著投資者了結獲利的避險交易部位，黃金與白銀遭受多年來最劇烈的單日跌幅。此資本直接流入股市，但明顯偏好工業與消費性類股的巨擘，而非高成長的科技股。在通用汽車(General Motors)和可口可樂(Coca-Cola)等公司亮眼財報的帶動下，道瓊工業平均指數飆升，創下今年第12次歷史新高。相較之下，那斯達克指數則因網飛(Netflix)財報公布後下跌而受挫下滑，確認了市場領漲族群正從科技產業向外擴散。
在美國市場經歷此內部輪動的同時，台灣股市則持續其基礎廣泛的漲勢，再度創下盤中及收盤新高。台股加權指數(TAIEX)受惠於其核心科技龍頭的強勁表現，包括台積電(TSMC)與鴻海(Hon Hai)，主因為iPhone 17銷售強勁的報導，以及AI基礎設施支出的不懈動能。外資呈現淨買超，突顯了全球對台灣科技供應鏈的信心。技術面格局依然強勁，主要指數皆位於所有重要移動平均線之上，且資金健康地輪動至被動元件等產業，顯示此波漲勢具有穩固的內部支撐。
展望未來，此一積極的市場情緒轉變已重塑了市場格局。黃金的急遽反轉顯示，投資者越來越相信地緣政治及信貸相關的風險正在消退。然而，一個關鍵的矛盾依然存在：股市正在反映樂觀預期，而債券市場的十年期公債殖利率則保持在4.0%以下，持續釋出央行將寬鬆及潛在經濟逆風的預期訊號。現在的焦點完全轉向下一波的企業財報，以及本週五的美國消費者物價指數(CPI)報告，這將考驗此波新風險偏好情緒的持久性。對台灣而言，儘管指數迅速攀升，投資者應採取紀律的資本配置而非追高，但其基本面依然異常強勁。
週二資產焦點：亞洲指數與台灣個股趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵亞洲股價指數(以美元計價)及台灣領先大型股(以新台幣計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：亞洲股價指數(美元計價)
- MSCI台灣指數(代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- MSCI香港指數(代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
- MSCI新加坡指數(代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
- MSCI日本指數(代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
- MSCI南韓指數(代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
亞洲股市普遍呈現趨勢走強的現象。台灣和日本的趨勢指標，雙雙從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。香港的評估則出現顯著反轉，從溫和負向轉為溫和正向。新加坡和南韓的趨勢則維持穩定，分別守住其溫和正向和強勁正向的評級。此數據指向該區域股市的前景已出現同步改善。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台灣積體電路製造(Ticker: 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 鴻海精密工業(Ticker: 2317): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --
- 聯發科技(Ticker: 2454): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 台達電子工業(Ticker: 2308): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 富邦金融控股(Ticker: 2881): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
台灣龍頭企業中，最顯著的變化發生在鴻海精密，其趨勢指標從中性轉強為強勁正向。這使其與台積電和台達電的趨勢一致，後兩者皆維持其強勁正向的趨勢。相較之下，聯發科則守住其強勁負向的評級，而富邦金的趨勢則維持溫和正向。此數據顯示，核心科技製造業的力道再現，而其他產業則呈現持續但獨特的趨勢。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Investors Dump Precious Metals for Value Stocks, Powering Dow to New Record
A massive sell-off in gold signals a decisive shift, but waning tech momentum in the U.S. contrasts with Taiwan's continued AI-driven advance.
By Joe 盧, CFA | October 22, 2025
Executive Summary
- Markets witnessed a significant rotation as investors aggressively sold safe-haven assets and bought into value-oriented equities, driving the Dow Jones to a new record.
- The Dow surged on strong industrial earnings while the Nasdaq faltered, signaling a clear divergence from growth to value stocks as tech momentum pauses.
- The 10-year Treasury yield remained subdued below 4.0%, reflecting persistent expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite the risk-on mood in equities.
- Corporate earnings took center stage, with strong results from industrial bellwethers like General Motors and 3M providing a powerful catalyst for the market's rotation.
- Persistent optimism surrounding upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations continued to underpin positive market sentiment and reduce demand for safe havens.
The market's primary signal is a decisive and powerful rotation out of precious metals, with gold and silver suffering their sharpest single-day declines in years as investors liquidated profitable haven trades. This capital flowed directly into equities, but with a clear preference for industrial and consumer stalwarts over high-growth technology. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to its 12th record high of the year on the back of stellar earnings from names like General Motors and Coca-Cola. In contrast, the Nasdaq slipped, weighed down by a post-earnings drop in Netflix, confirming that leadership is broadening beyond the tech sector.
While U.S. markets navigated this internal rotation, the Taiwan stock market continued its broad-based advance, again hitting new intraday and closing highs. The TAIEX was propelled by strength in its core technology leaders, including TSMC and Hon Hai, benefiting from reports of robust iPhone 17 sales and the unyielding momentum in AI infrastructure spending. Foreign investors were net buyers, underscoring global confidence in Taiwan's technology supply chain. The technical picture remains strong, with key indices above all major moving averages and healthy rotation into sectors like passive components, suggesting the rally has solid internal support.
Looking ahead, the landscape has been reshaped by this aggressive shift in sentiment. The sharp reversal in gold suggests investors may be increasingly confident that geopolitical and credit-related risks are receding. However, a key contradiction persists: equity markets are pricing in optimism while the bond market, with the 10-year yield holding below 4.0%, continues to signal expectations of central bank easing and potential economic headwinds. The focus now shifts entirely to the next wave of corporate earnings and this Friday's U.S. CPI report, which will test the durability of this new risk-on appetite. For Taiwan, the fundamental story remains exceptionally strong, though the rapid ascent calls for disciplined capital allocation rather than chasing highs.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Asian Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key Asian equity indices in USD terms and for Taiwan's leading large-cap companies in TWD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Asian Equity Indices (in USD)
- MSCI Taiwan Index (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- MSCI Hong Kong Index (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- MSCI Singapore Index (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- MSCI Japan Index (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- MSCI South Korea Index (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A broad strengthening of trends was visible across Asian equity markets. The trend indicators for Taiwan and Japan both improved from mildly positive to strongly positive. Hong Kong’s assessment showed a significant reversal, moving from mildly negative to mildly positive. The trends for Singapore and South Korea remained stable, holding their mildly positive and strongly positive ratings, respectively. This data points to a coordinated improvement in the outlook for the region's equity markets.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Fubon Financial Holding Co Ltd (Ticker: 2881): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
The most significant change among Taiwan's leading companies was in Hon Hai Precision, which saw its trend indicator strengthen from neutral to strongly positive. This brings it in line with Taiwan Semiconductor and Delta Electronics, both of which maintained their strongly positive trends. In contrast, MediaTek held its strongly negative rating, while Fubon Financial's trend remained mildly positive. The data suggests renewed strength in core technology manufacturing, while other sectors show persistent, distinct trends.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。