•
【Joe’s華爾街脈動】估值疑慮升溫，AI股應聲重挫
估值恐慌引發美科技股暴跌，華爾街警告更添佐證，為已然超買的台股帶來顯著逆風。
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月4日 美東時間
摘要
- 對AI極端估值的突然重新評估，引發了基礎廣泛的避險潮，全球股市應聲急遽下挫。
- 華爾街執行長的警告加劇了投資者對市場潛在修正的擔憂，科技股潰敗拖累那斯達克指數暴跌超過2%。
- 隨著風險偏好消退，資金強力輪動至防禦性資產，美元兌歐元飆升至三個月高點，確認了此一趨勢。
- 儘管財報強勁，Palantir在財報公布後股價暴跌，成為此波賣壓的主要催化劑，使投資者對過高估值的焦慮具體化。
- 投機性資產急劇崩跌，尤其以比特幣跌破十萬美元關鍵水平為標誌，確認了市場情緒轉變的嚴重性。
由AI狂熱情緒所助燃的強勁漲勢面臨嚴峻考驗，市場對科技產業天價估值的突然清算，引發了急遽的拋售。催化劑是Palantir矛盾的暴跌；儘管公布了創紀錄的營收和三倍的獲利，其股價仍遭猛烈拋售，此訊號顯示市場已不願再不計代價地為增長背書。此事件具體化了市場對過度延伸、頭重腳輕結構潛在的焦慮，而高盛(Goldman Sachs)與摩根史坦利(Morgan Stanley)執行長公開警告市場可能出現雙位數修正，更迅速驗證了此一恐懼。
此一轉向避險的態勢既猛烈，且在所有資產類別中都得到確認。CBOE波動率指數(VIX)飆升超過10%，資本逃向安全的美元，推升美元觸及三個月高點。最具說服力的確認，來自投機性資產的崩跌，比特幣出現重大的技術性崩盤，自六月以來首次跌破十萬美元的關鍵心理關卡。這並非一次小幅回檔，而是一場由市場對其軌跡進行根本性重新評估所驅動的、顯著且廣泛的風險平倉。
此次美國市場的拋售，對已顯現疲態的台灣市場構成了直接且即時的挑戰。台股加權指數(TAIEX)於週二創下歷史新高後，急遽反轉收黑，是獲利了結的清晰訊號。外資法人已連續三日呈現淨賣超，且市場的漲勢已危險地集中在目前正領跌美國市場的同一批AI個股上。隨著台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)隔夜顯著下跌，市場的領漲族群如今面臨著重大的外部壓力。市場環境已從高檔盤整，轉變為須嚴格風險管理的階段。
週二資產焦點：亞洲指數與台灣個股趨勢
本摘要總結了關鍵亞洲股價指數(以美元計價)及台灣領先大型股(以新台幣計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。
圖表一：亞洲股價指數(美元計價)
- MSCI台灣指數(代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- MSCI香港指數(代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- MSCI新加坡指數(代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
- MSCI日本指數(代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- MSCI南韓指數(代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
數個主要亞洲市場普遍觀察到正面動能減弱的現象。新加坡的趨勢指標變化最為顯著，從強勁正向轉為中性。台灣和日本的趨勢亦從強勁緩和至溫和正向。相較之下，香港和南韓則維持堅挺，雙雙守住其強勁正向的趨勢指標。此數據指向區域內不同市場的趨勢評估出現分歧。
圖表二：台灣前五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台灣積體電路製造(Ticker: 2330): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 鴻海精密工業(Ticker: 2317): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 台達電子工業(Ticker: 2308): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
- 聯發科技(Ticker: 2454): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
- 廣達電腦(Ticker: 2382): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲
台灣領先科技企業的趨勢普遍出現顯著轉弱。最重大的轉變為廣達電腦的趨勢反轉，其指標從溫和正向轉為溫和負向。鴻海精密和台達電的趨勢亦從強勁緩和至溫和正向。逆勢而行的是台積電，維持其強勁正向的趨勢，以及聯發科，守住其強勁負向的指標。
📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。
如果您覺得這份研究有價值：
👍為這篇文章按讚。
➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
AI Stocks Tumble as Valuation Concerns Boil Over
A plunge in U.S. tech, sparked by valuation fears and validated by Wall Street warnings, creates significant headwinds for an already overbought TAIEX.
By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-04
Executive Summary
- Global equities sold off sharply as a sudden re-evaluation of extreme AI valuations triggered a broad-based flight to safety.
- The Nasdaq plummeted over 2%, dragged down by a tech rout after warnings from Wall Street CEOs amplified investor concerns about a potential market correction.
- The U.S. dollar surged to a three-month high against the euro, confirming a powerful rotation into defensive assets as risk appetite evaporated.
- Palantir's post-earnings plunge, despite a strong report, served as the primary catalyst for the sell-off, crystallizing investor anxiety over stretched valuations.
- A dramatic collapse in speculative assets, highlighted by Bitcoin breaking below the critical $100,000 level, confirmed the severity of the shift in market sentiment.
The powerful rally fueled by AI euphoria faced a severe test as a sudden reckoning with sky-high valuations in the technology sector triggered a sharp sell-off. The catalyst was Palantir's paradoxical plunge; despite reporting record revenue and a tripling of profits, the stock was aggressively sold off, signaling that the market is no longer willing to underwrite growth at any price. This event crystallized latent anxiety about an over-extended, top-heavy market structure, a fear that was quickly validated by public warnings of a potential double-digit correction from the CEOs of both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
The shift to a risk-off posture was violent and confirmed across all asset classes. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) soared over 10%, and capital fled to the safety of the U.S. dollar, which hit a three-month high. The most telling confirmation came from the collapse in speculative assets, with Bitcoin suffering a major technical breakdown and plunging below the key $100,000 psychological level for the first time since June. This was not a minor pullback, but a significant and widespread unwinding of risk driven by a fundamental reassessment of the market's trajectory.
This U.S. sell-off poses a direct and immediate challenge to the Taiwan market, which was already exhibiting signs of exhaustion. The TAIEX reached a new all-time high on Tuesday before reversing sharply to close negative, a clear sign of profit-taking. Foreign investors had already been net sellers for three consecutive days, and the market's advance had become dangerously concentrated in the very same AI names that are now leading the decline in the U.S. With TSMC's ADR falling notably overnight, the market's leadership sector now faces significant external pressure. The environment has shifted from one of high-level consolidation to one of acute risk management.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Asian Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key Asian equity indices in USD terms and for Taiwan's leading large-cap companies in TWD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Exhibit 1: Asian Equity Indices (in USD)
- MSCI Taiwan Index (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- MSCI Hong Kong Index (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- MSCI Singapore Index (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
- MSCI Japan Index (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- MSCI South Korea Index (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
A broad weakening of positive momentum was observed across several major Asian markets. The trend indicator for Singapore saw the most significant change, moving from strongly positive to neutral. The trends for Taiwan and Japan also eased from strongly to mildly positive. In contrast, Hong Kong and South Korea held firm, both maintaining their strongly positive trend indicators. This data points to a divergence in the trend assessments for different markets within the region.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲
A notable weakening of trends occurred among Taiwan's leading technology companies. The most significant shift was a trend reversal in Quanta Computer, with its indicator moving from mildly positive to mildly negative. Hon Hai Precision and Delta Electronics also saw their trends moderate from strongly to mildly positive. Bucking this pattern were Taiwan Semiconductor, which maintained its strongly positive trend, and MediaTek, which held its strongly negative indicator.
📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.
💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.
if you found this research valuable:
👍'Like' this post.
📰Follow this blog for new market updates.
➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。